Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Ouch. these maps are so funny, they make canada look like frozen tundra, but in fact much of that is <1 inch of snow on the ground. i can tell you that in MTL it is just patches of snow and in the city, there is nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 JB pulling the trigger.. Is it go time?? BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Result is cold stormy pattern for much of nation as per map I am showing folks on our site: http://pic.twitter.com/trKCR1KC BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Dam across north breaks, cross polar flow, Siberian express develops. (day 4 vs day 16 via psu ewall) http://pic.twitter.com/PC2TPmqs » BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Winter frontal assault starts in nw US between Jan 10-15 and engulfs much of nation after.Eastern cold shot now a "warm up" for real deal I didn't know there were any bullets left in the chamber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'm pretty confident that 75% of the days from 1/16-31 will be aob normal. Big changes en rout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Vawxman on board for fun times mid month on!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Vawxman on board for fun times mid month on!!!! Not too difficult to fathom....some of us have been touting mid January for the bonafinde change for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Yeah with the -PNA, it's going to be concentrated in the west with hopefully a branching high from the Canadian prairies into Quebec. That -PNA may hurt the MA and even SNE if it gets too strong, but at least the pattern offers us a chance up here for now. There are still some questions as to how everything transpires, so I'm not giddy by any means....just hoping it works out. I'd take my chances to the n of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Vawxman on board for fun times mid month on!!!! Bu..bu...bu....but you said wire to wire snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Bu..bu...bu....but you said wire to wire snowless. There is a reason why he is WOTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 There is a reason why he is WOTY. LOL, how should we present the trophy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 LOL, how should we present the trophy? Wiz can insert it into his fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Didn't JB call JUST call for a very warm January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 no it's not that. i'm just so tired of his crappy tweets. LOL. every single one is about cold and snow. he has essentially ignored the fact that it's been a blow torch for 60 days straight. LOL. and posting the 16 day GFS??? wtf is that? I could never watch him on accuweather lol hed just tire me out in minutes and then i would feel like i needed a nap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Didn't JB call JUST call for a very warm January? People legitimize him by paying attention to him. He's probably the reason a lot of people say "the weatherman never gets it right". Too much hype and changing his mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I still believe that in the absence negative polar index values that the middle latitude anomalies distribution over N/A is going to be more guided by the whims of the Pacific ...including the PNA/MJO...etc. That's been proven since the AO has been predominantly positive. In fact, all of the periods over the last 60 days that were at all closer to normal (or however briefly negative...) sectoral over the U.S. took place at or just after the AO performed a dip to near or just beneath 0.0 standard deviations. Post each nadir, the AO rose... so did the temps. Pretty red-handed culpability as suggested by what's in the books there. There are other avenues of reasoning to point out that correlation, too, but for brevity... it's true. Not to be outdone, I don't think, however, the current winter blast in the GL and our ensuing cold snap is necessitated by the AO this particular time; the MJO had died for a week to 10 days, allowing [perhaps] the PNA to temporarily take on a Perennial North American Pattern vibe, which latched 55-65 latitude Canadian air and got it to come south... But that's another discussion.. That said, the MJO is currently weakening in late Phase 6; perhaps a day later than the GEFs mean suggested it would, that's good enough to say nice call there. Where to? Whether it continues to weaken and collapses altogether, only to loop all the way through the COD only to pheonix into Phase 4 remains to be seen. But if it does that, I would suggest that any amplitude offered of the western ridge, eastern trough ilk offered by these extended range operational runs should be taken as dubious more so than the usual accounting for stochastic model behavior for those time ranges. I wouldn't trust the 00z Euro upper MA/interior SNE snow scenario at D8/9. I am not sure what the Euro mean has as far as the PNA goes, but the GEFs mean shows a steadily declining PNA. It is not hugely positive to begin with...on the order of +.5 or so, but ending up negative in all members by week 2. There is, admittedly, just the subtlest hint of a 1 day rise or perhaps temporary halt of the ongoing fall in about 8 days in the GEFs mean at both CPC/CDC, but that signal is so weak it's hard pressed to give a nod to the Euro thinking there. Be that as it may, if the Euro mean has a stronger looking +PNA ... it may mean that it has support from it's own camp. BUT, it's own camp could be erroneous... With the persistence in place that is of the indisputably convincing variety (to put it mildly...), and the MJO apparently dying just before a Western Pacific effect could be helpful to +PNA cause, it seems more likely to me that Euro is just wrong. Last week the Euro saved winter for 2 runs, and seemingly conned the other guidance types into agreeing for an afternoon. ....They waited, until they sensed the elation mounting in the collective voice of the winter weather enthusiasts, then dropped the other shoe just to watch them bleed their mirth - man did those models get a kick out of your miseries. hahah. j/k.. Point is, the canvas doesn't support storm colors for the time being. If the MJO proves wrongly guided, and ends up in Phase 8 somehow...sure, let's re-evaluate. However, until persistence to be strongest in the worst possible wave spaces at least excuse imaginable finally breaks, my money is that whatever verifies is going to be disappointing for the population that wants winter to mean business. Hopefully, you won't have to depend on the Pacific all season... That's the Pac. The AO is perhaps 2 weeks away from doing a mid season dive. The year ended with a blossoming stratospheric warming event. The early indications are/were promising. There is a Wave 1 geopotential anomaly that came along with it. These temp and g fields are emerging in the 5hPa layer, which for SSWs that propagate, these observations were also consistent with those in the past. So that's a good sign for negative AO to take place. The onset of the warm anomaly was last week; the typical lag is 21 days... That puts us maybe 2 weeks from seeing some reponse...maybe a tad longer. Could be an exciting 2nd half of winter - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Not too difficult to fathom....some of us have been touting mid January for the bonafinde change for a long time. And some of you touted a great December back in the autumn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 And some of you touted a great December back in the autumn Yea, some me also expected 75-85" of snow in the autumn, too.....but since I regrouped, been fairly accurate. You have flipped more than a matress in a chinatown wh*rehouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Yea, some me also expected 75-85" of snow in the autumn, too.....but since I regrouped, been fairly accurate. You have flipped more than a matress in chinatown wh*rehouse. which wh*rehouse in particular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 As I said a couple days ago... big changes en route. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The euro ensembles really have a nice ridge into the Aleutians, but the -PNA is also forcing a se ridge. Verbatim the ensembles are cold, but we have to watch that ridge. However, they look like fun for SNE...IF that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The euro ensembles really have a nice ridge into the Aleutians, but the -PNA is also forcing a se ridge. Verbatim the ensembles are cold, but we have to watch that ridge. However, they look like fun for SNE...IF that happened. Would this once again be in the day 11-15 range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The euro ensembles really have a nice ridge into the Aleutians, but the -PNA is also forcing a se ridge. Verbatim the ensembles are cold, but we have to watch that ridge. However, they look like fun for SNE...IF that happened. Ill take the se ridge to get rid of the ak low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Ill take the se ridge to get rid of the ak low In New England we take it all day long...we can have some success in that pattern though its obviously walking the line. The AK vortex is death...I think I kept saying how ugly the AK vortex would be all fall if it happened into the winter....fear the AK vortex. SE ridge really stinks for the M.A....but like '07-'08 and parts of '08-'09 we can deal with it ok here. We might get skunked in that pattern but at least we have a chance unlike the AK vortex pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 In New England we take it all day long...we can have some success in that pattern though its obviously walking the line. The AK vortex is death...I think I kept saying how ugly the AK vortex would be all fall if it happened into the winter....fear the AK vortex. SE ridge really stinks for the M.A....but like '07-'08 and parts of '08-'09 we can deal with it ok here. We might get skunked in that pattern but at least we have a chance unlike the AK vortex pattern. Its the reason why ive been banging the drum for a couple days... its finally going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 At least we may finally be getting rid of that awful AK vortex. I think the pattern coming up may be good for me and the NNE crew but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The euro ensembles really have a nice ridge into the Aleutians, but the -PNA is also forcing a se ridge. Verbatim the ensembles are cold, but we have to watch that ridge. However, they look like fun for SNE...IF that happened. It might just be about time to take our pants off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The euro ensembles really have a nice ridge into the Aleutians, but the -PNA is also forcing a se ridge. Verbatim the ensembles are cold, but we have to watch that ridge. However, they look like fun for SNE...IF that happened. Agreed. Just got home and looked at the Euro Ens and they seem much improved. Verbatim it looks like a seasonable temp pattern post-day 10 with plenty of snow/wintry precip chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Agreed. Just got home and looked at the Euro Ens and they seem much improved. Verbatim it looks like a seasonable temp pattern post-day 10 but but with some plenty of snow/wintry precip chances. DT??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 If you go back to HM's thread before the winter on big snowfall gradients, QBO, and Aleutian ridge, you will see how we were saying we want a bigger Aleutian ridge poking up into the arctic to get a more favorable gradient pattern. This winter has shown us why...its been stuck way south with the AK vortex...but now that it is finally flexing its muscles in the long range, we can see how the pattern looks a lot better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 DT??? lol can't type apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 In New England we take it all day long...we can have some success in that pattern though its obviously walking the line. The AK vortex is death...I think I kept saying how ugly the AK vortex would be all fall if it happened into the winter....fear the AK vortex. SE ridge really stinks for the M.A....but like '07-'08 and parts of '08-'09 we can deal with it ok here. We might get skunked in that pattern but at least we have a chance unlike the AK vortex pattern. EPO controls my emotions i also have some fear of negative PNAs and monstrous AOs but EPO still in control overall i'm not afraid of the NAO at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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