CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Where, Caribou? They are driving massive dump trucks on the ponds near Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 They are driving massive dump trucks on the ponds near Pete. LOL...They set the Guinness book of world records on the pond there over the weekend. They had 10,000 people all on the ice at once. And the rule was you had to be over 225 lbs to get on the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 GC is a magical place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Wyoming looks snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Also, euro ensembles mean d10 is starting to show the displacement of the AK vortex and a gradient pattern getting established which btw agrees with the op. Mark 1/15 as the pattern change beginning with the completion by 1/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Ouch. Worse than January 02' at this point as well as January 07'....truly remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Nothing has changed really. Everything is beyond day 10, if it does change. I kind of disagree with this. Yes the end result of a possible -EPO is beyond day 10 on ensemble guidance still, but I believe the pieces that will come into play to eventually force that pattern begin setting into motion days 6-10 in the northwest Pacific..as well as with the AK vortex break down and/or continued retrogression... (I'm going off the latest gefs mean right now). If I lived in New England I'd be feeling much more optimistic right now, but thats just me...As far as down my way and into the mid-Atl..ehhh, tbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I kind of disagree with this. Yes the end result of a possible -EPO is beyond day 10 on ensemble guidance still, but I believe the pieces that will come into play to eventually force that pattern begin setting into motion days 6-10 in the northwest Pacific..as well as with the AK vortex break down and/or continued retrogression... (I'm going off the latest gefs mean right now). If I lived in New England I'd be feeling at least a little more optimistic right now. Well I mean the changes here won't be noticeable until after d10. Maybe we cool off day 8 or 9, but I was thinking more long term stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Well I mean the changes here won't be noticeable until after d10. Maybe we cool off day 8 or 9, but I was thinking more long term stuff. Yeah i see what youre saying. I am a little curious about the January 8-15 period though, I want to think we will have another PNA spike with the AK vortex retrograding and there are a couple of waves to watch in the east//cold air being quite marginal as always this season. Beyond that, the -EPO/-PNA pattern would take over. Perhaps the models are a little too fast with that progression as well like Will has pointed out, but I think we will do it. NAO is still a mess, but that setup looks a hell of a lot better than where we've been in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 06Z OP GFS is a rain event here DEC 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Yeah i see what youre saying. I am a little curious about the January 8-15 period though, I want to think we will have another PNA spike with the AK vortex retrograding and there are a couple of waves to watch in the east//cold air being quite marginal as always this season. Beyond that, the -EPO/-PNA pattern would take over. Perhaps the models are a little too fast with that progression as well like Will has pointed out, but I think we will do it. NAO is still a mess, but that setup looks a hell of a lot better than where we've been in my opinion It's possible we could get something in that timeframe. Looks like something near the 10th is on the progs. I guess I'm not getting excited about that just yet, as it could still cut over our heads, or not even happen at all. However, I am starting to get a little more hopeful of some sort of change near and beyond mid month. I think confidence is building in that. I also think we have to be careful of the term pattern change, because some may mistaken it for continuous cold and snow. I look at it, as a change into offering some chances of witner wx. The PNA will probably turn negative again with that ridge forming up near AK, so we'll need that bad boy to have some good amplitude. So while I'm somewhat hopeful for more chances of wintry wx...I'm not 100% sold on it turning into a period of great winter wx just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 JB pulling the trigger.. Is it go time?? BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Result is cold stormy pattern for much of nation as per map I am showing folks on our site: http://pic.twitter.com/trKCR1KC BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Dam across north breaks, cross polar flow, Siberian express develops. (day 4 vs day 16 via psu ewall) http://pic.twitter.com/PC2TPmqs » BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Winter frontal assault starts in nw US between Jan 10-15 and engulfs much of nation after.Eastern cold shot now a "warm up" for real deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 JB pulling the trigger.. Is it go time?? BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Result is cold stormy pattern for much of nation as per map I am showing folks on our site: http://pic.twitter.com/trKCR1KC BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Dam across north breaks, cross polar flow, Siberian express develops. (day 4 vs day 16 via psu ewall) http://pic.twitter.com/PC2TPmqs » BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Winter frontal assault starts in nw US between Jan 10-15 and engulfs much of nation after.Eastern cold shot now a "warm up" for real deal It has the potential to be very wintry if the ridge can build enough. Any attempt at ridging has met doom up there with that big vortex, but now that it may split into two, it has the chance of becoming more Nina like with the ridge into the Aleutians. If the PNA becomes highly negative, we may be walking the line again, but to me, it looks like the pattern screams gradient right now. A little too early to say where that gradient sets up, but at least it offers chances of more winter like stuff. Probably about all you can say right now as there are still some questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 JB pulling the trigger.. Is it go time?? BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Result is cold stormy pattern for much of nation as per map I am showing folks on our site: http://pic.twitter.com/trKCR1KC BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Dam across north breaks, cross polar flow, Siberian express develops. (day 4 vs day 16 via psu ewall) http://pic.twitter.com/PC2TPmqs » BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Winter frontal assault starts in nw US between Jan 10-15 and engulfs much of nation after.Eastern cold shot now a "warm up" for real deal i like him less and less all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 i like him less and less all the time. LOL.I guess your're not on board the winter express Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 LOL.I guess your're not on board the winter express He's always on that train. It goes back to what we talked about the other day...about hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 He's always on that train. It goes back to what we talked about the other day...about hype. I don't think he's hyping anything. He's simply stating where he thinks the pattern is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 LOL.I guess your're not on board the winter express no it's not that. i'm just so tired of his crappy tweets. LOL. every single one is about cold and snow. he has essentially ignored the fact that it's been a blow torch for 60 days straight. LOL. and posting the 16 day GFS??? wtf is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I don't think he's hyping anything. He's simply stating where he thinks the pattern is going Yeah he is, look at the wording. And I'm not saying it's completely false, but he pulled the same thing a few weeks ago when everyone was dry humping 1mb stratospheric warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I don't think he's hyping anything. He's simply stating where he thinks the pattern is going Hmmm. 85 cold, vodka cold in the east mid december into holidays........then another flip, winter cance, and now yet another flip lol, he is beyond awful and everything he does is hype. Will, Scooter, Phil,Ryan, have all blown him out of the water, its too bad he used to be damn good at pattern recognition, now he is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I don't think he's hyping anything. He's simply stating where he thinks the pattern is going i think there's support for the pattern turning cooler/active...i wouldn't say i disagree with that. i just get tired of how he goes about his business. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Hmmm. 85 cold, vodka cold in the east mid december into holidays........then another flip, winter cance, and now yet another flip lol, he is beyond awful and everything he does is hype. Will, Scooter, Phil,Ryan, have all blown him out of the water, its too bad he used to be damn good at pattern recognition, now he is a joke. Well just to be clear, I don't think we are saying it is false, because the pattern potentially could turn cold. Just his method imo leaves something to be desired, but the man gets paid so more power to him I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Well just to be clear, I don't think we are saying it is false, because the pattern potentially could turn cold. Just his method imo leaves something to be desired, but the man gets paid so more power to him I guess. Like I said his ability to recognize patterns going forward was impressive, but since November he has flipped like 3 or 4 times while most of the mets I read have been saying the same thing since early November. The man has talent, but when he goes on FOx business talking about snow on xmas for nyc a couple days before, its laughable, from one hype machine to another. Its a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Well just to be clear, I don't think we are saying it is false, because the pattern potentially could turn cold. Just his method imo leaves something to be desired, but the man gets paid so more power to him I guess. exactly. that's the part that gets old. and i remember back in his accuwx days he'd spend 4 days straight talking about how we was going to crush the GFS mos in like chicago or something. as though that proves something special. i'm confused as to where he's getting his $ though - if I was an energy trader and relying on him...i'd be broke. so it must be weenies ponying up $$ for subscriptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Well just to be clear, I don't think we are saying it is false, because the pattern potentially could turn cold. Just his method imo leaves something to be desired, but the man gets paid so more power to him I guess. It would definitely be a colder pattern across the conus but initually the cold air would be in the west and plains with some getting to you guys, it wouldn't yet be good for south of 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Does he ever backtrack and say "about that tweet on ...", "I was wrong and here is why..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 exactly. that's the part that gets old. and i remember back in his accuwx days he'd spend 4 days straight talking about how we was going to crush the GFS mos in like chicago or something. as though that proves something special. i'm confused as to where he's getting his $ though - if I was an energy trader and relying on him...i'd be broke. so it must be weenies ponying up $$ for subscriptions. From what I hear, the traders love him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It would definitely be a colder pattern across the conus but initually the cold air would be in the west and plains with some getting to you guys, it wouldn't yet be good for south of 40N. Yeah with the -PNA, it's going to be concentrated in the west with hopefully a branching high from the Canadian prairies into Quebec. That -PNA may hurt the MA and even SNE if it gets too strong, but at least the pattern offers us a chance up here for now. There are still some questions as to how everything transpires, so I'm not giddy by any means....just hoping it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Interesting that the MJO forecasts from the GFS and euro have sort of reversed. GFS does a quick turn, and forecasts the MJO to go into phase 4, but the euro enters it weakly into the COD (circle of death) , but more in the Phase 8 side of the diagram. That would help keep heights higher in the EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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