CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The euro ensembles look pretty nice in the 11-15 day. They continue the theme of very cold air seeping into the CONUS from western and central Canada. The se ridge doesn't look terribly robust on this run. As usual, models may be a hair too fast, so if you keep that in mind..I think things seem to be slowly edging closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The main signal that the 12z ECM OP gives me, however, is that the pattern change continues to be pushed back. That's one sign that it's not happening this winter, reminiscent a bit of the excitement in 07-08 when the models/ensembles began to see a big Rex block over the Pacific bringing brutal cold and snow threats to the Mid-Atlantic, but it always stayed out in the long range. At first people were saying the pattern would change by the end of December, then the beginning of January, now it's solid warmth out to January 10th...The tenacity of the vortex over the Bering Strait/AK is indeed amazing this year. Also, I disagree with Mark about those maps showing a -NAO, looks solidly positive to me with a 490dm vortex over Baffin Island and high heights centered from the Azores north in the Sub-tropical Atlantic. Definitely think any hope is going to be with the Pacific side for a while, and even that is looking pretty crappy right now. The OP run can't see far enough out though for the pattern shift...so you wouldn't be able to tell anything from it. Even if it could see out far enough, looking at the OP run in the D8-10 time frame is the same as look at the OP GFS or any other model that far out...it has very little skill. That is why we tend to look at the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 GFS run to run consistency at least models a ridge into AK for three straight runs. (far as I looked back) I have not been barking about a change all season, I think it may finally be coming. Consensus seems to keep us in this pattern until the 10th. I think clear pattern change around the 20th. Right in time for you to track a massive winter storm the day after I leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Highs might not get above 10 in the hills on Wed Uhh I think thats a stretch. AOB 18-24 F in CT hills I would think. Maybe maine foothills hover near 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 When did I say anything about the Euro past day 7 today? All I said is there is no snow on the Euro like some are hallucinating there is. We are snowless period That may be, but the way you worded it...it makes it sound gospel. It's fine, I just cringe when people start to look out and try to make statements on what they show, when the skill is so bad. You are right in that it looks crappy, but I would feel the same if it showed a blizzard. I think the one thing op runs can try to signal..is some sort of a change..either warmer or colder. What I mean is that if you see the op runs (this applies to the GFS op) start to shift violently around in either direction in the 11-15 day, sometimes it signifies a change down the road. But otherwise, they are useless imo during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Guess you never looked at todays 12z Euro. Looks like a general 1-4" across eastern areas including northeast CT especially in the hills in that area.. when do first map calls come out you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Guess you never looked at todays 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 That may be, but the way you worded it...it makes it sound gospel. It's fine, I just cringe when people start to look out and try to make statements on what they show, when the skill is so bad. You are right in that it looks crappy, but I would feel the same if it showed a blizzard. I think the one thing op runs can try to signal..is some sort of a change..either warmer or colder. What I mean is that if you see the op runs (this applies to the GFS op) start to shift violently around in either direction in the 11-15 day, sometimes it signifies a change down the road. But otherwise, they are useless imo during that time. For the last few days, the GFS has shown an AK block consistently in the long-range, and the 12z had a massive ridge developing over the Bering Strait at the end of the run. However, the 12z GEFS didn't really agree with the modeled changes on the OP and have low heights remaining over AK with most of the United States seeing above average temperatures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 (GFS) PNA, AO, NAO all look unimpressive though right until day 15... not much changing in that regard despite the artic looking different Ensembles all look slightly better but nothing earth shattering. PNA dipping down into the negatives on both by 1/8 and staying there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Congrats on being the King of All Weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Guess you never looked at todays 12z Euro. Careful you don't hurt your back shoveling that coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Careful you don't hurt your back shoveling that coating That'll be more than I've sen in the past 60+ days. I will revel in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Highs might not get above 10 in the hills on Wed If by "hills" you mean Mt. Washington, then yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 For the last few days, the GFS has shown an AK block consistently in the long-range, and the 12z had a massive ridge developing over the Bering Strait at the end of the run. However, the 12z GEFS didn't really agree with the modeled changes on the OP and have low heights remaining over AK with most of the United States seeing above average temperatures: That's the only thing that kind of has me conservative. I'd like to see them hop on board as well. It may be the GFS progressive bias, but sometimes we see the models cave towards each other...perhaps weighted to one suite more than the other. Either way, I like seeing the more accurate set of models show the change, but we have to realize that they may be rushing the change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Careful you don't hurt your back shoveling that coating Lol. Too bad the lack of snow will keep things a little warmer Tues/Wed than what one would expect with that airmass in early January. 34.7/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 That's the only thing that kind of has me conservative. I'd like to see them hop on board as well. It may be the GFS progressive bias, but sometimes we see the models cave towards each other...perhaps weighted to one suite more than the other. Either way, I like seeing the more accurate set of models show the change, but we have to realize that they may be rushing the change. It's sort of a split between each model and its own ensembles. 12z ECM OP keeps the +EPO/+NAO intact while the 12z ECM ENS have a much more favorable regime over the Pacific. 12z GFS brings a massive AK block in the long-range, as have many of the operational runs of the GFS, but its own ensembles don't agree and have a torched CONUS with the monster vortex remaining over AK. I don't think we really have any consensus for a pattern change up through mid January. The 0z GEFS were a bit more interesting with the vortex weakening and getting pushed into NW Canada, which at least allows some cold air to drain into the Northern Tier and the CONUS. However, the 6z and 12z GEFS went backwards and had the vortex restrengthening and much further west over the Bering Strait which allows for southerly flow across all of Canada. Here was the 0z GEFS 11-15 day temp anomaly map, much better than the last ensemble suite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I put this in the winter weather category. Extreme cold is definitely extremely cool. I for one handle the cold much better than the hot. I do too, Id take bitter cold over hot and humid any day, my yard is a muddy mess today, need it to freeze up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Cold like modeled is fine. In and out...I should be so lucky... But continuous dry cold ala January 2004 is tough. The only thing saving that was the historic nature of the cold...coldest January in 111 years at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Out at 180 hours on the wx underground maps I thought maybe it was attempting some anafrontal action, or maybe a gradient event set-up. I know almost every time this year that has failed. Once it gave Northern New England a decent event. The OP run can't see far enough out though for the pattern shift...so you wouldn't be able to tell anything from it. Even if it could see out far enough, looking at the OP run in the D8-10 time frame is the same as look at the OP GFS or any other model that far out...it has very little skill. That is why we tend to look at the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 We had a lot of snow out on this property in Jan and/or Feb 2004. I first set foot here in middle February when it was for sale..walked it with snow shoes to check it out. I recall a solid 2 feet and areas to 3 feet +. I guess there were some good events in the interior. Cold like modeled is fine. In and out...I should be so lucky... But continuous dry cold ala January 2004 is tough. The only thing saving that was the historic nature of the cold...coldest January in 111 years at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Cold like modeled is fine. In and out...I should be so lucky... But continuous dry cold ala January 2004 is tough. The only thing saving that was the historic nature of the cold...coldest January in 111 years at BOS. Jan 2004 has the coldest 3 day stretch on record at ORH...the average temp for those 3 days was a bit colder than -2F. That month there was so much suppression it was awful. We got a few light events to keep a modest snow pack, but overall cold and dry is no fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 wow 18z gfs looks very bust begining next weekend to the end of the period! looks really cold and snowy! hopefully future runs will continue! next weekend have a shot of a coastal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Blizzard24+ is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Jan 2004 has the coldest 3 day stretch on record at ORH...the average temp for those 3 days was a bit colder than -2F. That month there was so much suppression it was awful. We got a few light events to keep a modest snow pack, but overall cold and dry is no fun. Odd I had 21 inches that month including a 6 and a 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Jan 2004 has the coldest 3 day stretch on record at ORH...the average temp for those 3 days was a bit colder than -2F. That month there was so much suppression it was awful. We got a few light events to keep a modest snow pack, but overall cold and dry is no fun. Looks like there was a few inches on the ground back then but the total snowfall for the month was only about 12 inches, at least it looked and felt wintry, not exciting but Id take that in a heartbeat right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 It must have snowed. Or maybe the first half of February had a big storm. Snowpack was quite good out here by mid February 2004. Oh 18z GFS is trying quite hard to get an overunning event up here next Saturday/Sunday. Odd I had 21 inches that month including a 6 and a 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I thought January 2004 was great. It had brutal cold (coldest in Ct since jan 94) and we had a couple small snow events, including the SECS on January 28 that dropped a good 6+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Blizzard24+ is that you? No that's snowNH's Dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I thought January 2004 was great. It had brutal cold (coldest in Ct since jan 94) and we had a couple small snow events, including the SECS on January 28 that dropped a good 6+ inches of snow. Yea I remember 04 as a fantastic winter month. By the way what does your name mean. The Sox need a real closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Odd I had 21 inches that month including a 6 and a 9 You prob had good snow from the 1/28 system...it got crunched to the south. I think I got like 4" from that one and about 10 miles to my NE had an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.