January? Pattern Change Thread

[CoastalWx]

Like Will says it's a popularity contest now.It's a combo of that and people that don't like you voting for you. That's the way I vote. If I see someone that annoys me I vote for them. So the most popular and/or disliked met will win.

I don't think there is anyone voting that dislikes you. Well, maybe two or three...but who really cares about those people. They are probably hermits, shackled to a concrete floor like Sloth from the goonies, anyways.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't think there is anyone voting that dislikes you. Well, maybe two or three...but who really cares about those people. They are probably hermits, shackled to a concrete floor like Sloth from the goonies, anyways.

LOL...there's def some in the midatlantic and a few from NYC.. Maybe they'll ballz up and come to one of the conferences and meet me face to face.

Anyway...hopefully the pattern change is real deal Holyfield this time

[PhineasC]

LOL...there's def some in the midatlantic and a few from NYC.. Maybe they'll ballz up and come to one of the conferences and meet me face to face.

Anyway...hopefully the pattern change is real deal Holyfield this time

Congrats, dude. You earned this one.

[Typhoon Tip]

I checked the MJO progs and the GEFS really stink with forecasting these. They were ticking p7-8 while the euro had then going into the COD and then into phase 4. Looks like the GEFS are going to do the same.

Yep, overnight MJO progs show the mean decaying as it enters P7 and entering incoherency ...extrapolating to a reemergence in P5 perhaps further down the road...

Wouldn't surprise me; the index behavior over the past 40 days already did that once in P4/5 where it died in P6, looped around in the COD, and came back out to ruin Kevin's winter in P4 all over again. No polar-ward index were negative enough to mute the detrimental impact on the Pac Basin, allowing full realization of that teleconnector source imho.

There's something about the domain that is not allowing the MJO to sustain through the P7-P1 side - which are the zones between Japan and the Dateline (roughly). I think it has to do with the La Nina contaminating convective potential due to cooler waters - but that could be bullshyt too, because half the MJO extends into the southern hemisphere where it is summer. Not sure. Either way ... something is preventing the wave from propagating E while maintaining potency, seemingly persistently at that.

Be that as it may, the stratosphere is continuing to cook and looks even better than it did yesterday. There is now just emerging an actual U-Mean vector response to the emerging warmth/geopotential wave magnitudes (as provided by CDC). And, modest U-anomaly as well! Those are all in concert much more encouraging, although not a lock just yet, for eventual more meaningful PV break down compared to these brief neutralization ... only to excel to the moon all over again, type intervals (the winter weather enthusiasts have been suffering since the October freak show). Yesterday at this time the graphical observations did not yet show an actual wind response, just a temp and gp region emerging. Now we have all of them!

The question as to whether it propagates downward (important one for correlating on the AO as you know) would have to yet be ascertained, but encouraging to that ... if we look across the majors of SSWs over the last 30 years of winters, every one of them was introduced into the medium first by both temperature and geopotential wave wall with magnitudes comparable to that currently being detected in Wave 1 for the latter. That strong correlation in its self can't be hurting the cause there, I wouldn't think.

(by the way...I have this week off and that's why I'm writing these lengthier diatribes).

Observationally, there is a 20 day lag for propagation. I have shown this multiple times in the past. Here is one example, 2006, and you can see the lag relationship:

This is also true for all the propagating SSWs and the subsequent AO's of past winters. This is to point out that given a proven extrapolation/propagation, we should not expect instant gratification. This would all most post the 15th of January ...more likely closer to the 20th and beyond.

It should also be noted that the AO index obviously can rise and fall without these temperature and flux permutations taking place. The domain is sensitive [most likely] to a cornucopia of different factors. Last late autumn into winter we saw a negatively biased AO kick in with very limited or no preceding signal using the present type of observations. In fact, there was NO SSW ...certainly nothing notably propagating, prior to that -AO last year at all. There was a moderate SSW and weak propagation later in February, when ironically enough...the -AO flipped positive and winter decayed rather abruptly for 40N in N/A by mid February.

So obviously the domain has a complex series of plausible motivators - the one above is merely one that is identified. One thing that isn't very complex is the simple notion that, when the AO is negative, 40N tends to get cold, when it is positive, 40N tends to get warm. So, in being able to identify a plausible means to dismantle this plaguing +PV era is definitely good thing.

The reason I went down this path was going to be that the MJO is not as much of a bully on the pattern when the AO is negative. That much is clear. Most have suspected this for years. Reading NCEP state that the northern Tier to NE regions as being more susceptible to the AO/NAO ... perhaps clouding the ENSO, is a strong homage to the same notion, seeing as the MJO is just as much a tropical forcing factor (albeit transient comparatively) as the longer residence ENSO signal. That being only of -.5 to -1.0 is by definition a weak La Nina to begin with.

[CoastalWx]

Yep, overnight MJO progs show the mean decaying as it enters P7 and entering incoherency ...extrapolating to a reemergence in P5 perhaps further down the road...

Wouldn't surprise me; the index behavior over the past 40 days already did that once in P4/5 where it died in P6, looped around in the COD, and came back out to ruin Kevin's winter in P4 all over again. No polar-ward index were negative enough to mute the detrimental impact on the Pac Basin, allowing full realization of that teleconnector source imho.

There's something about the domain that is not allowing the MJO to sustain through the P7-P1 side - which are the zones between Japan and the Dateline (roughly). I think it has to do with the La Nina contaminating convective potential due to cooler waters - but that could be bullshyt too, because half the MJO extends into the southern hemisphere where it is summer. Not sure. Either way ... something is preventing the wave from propagating E while maintaining potency, seemingly persistently at that.

Be that as it may, the stratosphere is continuing to cook and looks even better than it did yesterday. There is now just emerging an actual U-Mean vector response to the emerging warmth/geopotential wave magnitudes (as provided by CDC). And, modest U-anomaly as well! Those are all in concert much more encouraging, although not a lock just yet, for eventual more meaningful PV break down compared to these brief neutralization ... only to excel to the moon all over again, type intervals (the winter weather enthusiasts have been suffering since the October freak show). Yesterday at this time the graphical observations did not yet show an actual wind response, just a temp and gp region emerging. Now we have all of them!

The question as to whether it propagates downward (important one for correlating on the AO as you know) would have to yet be ascertained, but encouraging to that ... if we look across the majors of SSWs over the last 30 years of winters, every one of them was introduced into the medium first by both temperature and geopotential wave wall with magnitudes comparable to that currently being detected in Wave 1 for the latter. That strong correlation in its self can't be hurting the cause there, I wouldn't think.

(by the way...I have this week off and that's why I'm writing these lengthier diatribes).

Observationally, there is a 20 day lag for propagation. I have shown this multiple times in the past. Here is one example, 2006, and you can see the lag relationship:

This is also true for all the propagating SSWs and the subsequent AO's of past winters. This is to point out that given a proven extrapolation/propagation, we should not expect instant gratification. This would all most post the 15th of January ...more likely closer to the 20th and beyond.

It should also be noted that the AO index obviously rises and falls without these temperature and flux permutations taking place. The domain is sensitive [most likely] to a cornucopia of different factors. Last late autumn into winter we saw a negatively biased AO kick in with very limited or no preceding signal using the present type of observations. In fact, there was NO SSW ...certainly nothing notably propagating, prior to that -AO last year at all. There was a moderate SSW and weak propagation later in February, when ironically enough...the -AO flipped positive and winter decayed rather abruptly for 40N in N/A by mid February.

So obviously the domain has a complex series of plausible motivators - the one above is merely one that is identified. One thing that isn't very complex is the simple notion that, when the AO is negative, 40N tends to get cold, when it is positive, 40N tends to get warm. So, in being able to identify a plausible means to dismantle this plaguing +PV era is definitely good thing.

The reason I went down this path was going to be that the MJO is not as much of a bully on the pattern when the AO is negative. That much is clear. Most have suspected this for years. Reading NCEP state that the northern Tier to NE regions as being more susceptible to the AO/NAO ... perhaps clouding the ENSO, is a strong homage to the same notion, seeing as the MJO is just as much a tropical forcing factor (albeit transient comparatively) as the longer residence ENSO signal. That being only of -.5 to -1.0 is by definition a weak La Nina to begin with.

I think I agree with this. The AO/NAO..whatever index you choose, seems to almost be independent at times with ENSO. You only need to look at the 50s and 60s to see that. Many Nina's featured a negative NAO during that time. Now some phases of the MJO can link up to possibly cause an overbearing +AO...but I don't think the general blanket theme of our old school way of La Nina thinking can apply...IE the 80s and 90s La Ninas.

Good post illustrating your thoughts. Pics do a lot, for those learning.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think I agree with this. The AO/NAO..whatever index you choose, seems to almost be independent at times with ENSO. You only need to look at the 50s and 60s to see that. Many Nina's featured a negative NAO during that time. Now some phases of the MJO can link up to possibly cause an overbearing +AO...but I don't think the general blanket theme of our old school way of La Nina thinking can apply...IE the 80s and 90s La Ninas.

Good post illustrating your thoughts. Pics do a lot, for those learning.

Yeah thx!

I also agree with the "hook up" thing hugely, btw -

I have been carrying around a notion (I am convinced has more validity than not) that the that MJO is more coherently affecting the circulation when outside teleconnectors (such as the WPO/NP/EPO/PNA) allow it to do so? In physical terms, constructive -vs- deconstructive wave interference ... but doing so on large scales.

If the regions outside of 30N (for the MJO's effectiveness in the NH) are being strongly guided by a geopotential gradient established from cold teleconnector sources, than the MJO out-gassing (if you want to call it that) is a much less visibly present, gets muted. That has to be true - the disconnect is clear as you've intimated.

I am not altogether thinking the MJO is ever going to give us the courtesy of a reach around this year. I am starting to suspect that if we don't get an assist from the boss up N, the employees are going to continue to f around and do a dis-service to the diners this go. We could end up with that futility crisis that Jerry talks about some times. It's just a persistence argument alone, but man - this has got to be the most head-banging persistence ever. And frankly, it's one that has an emergent sort of eeriness to it; part of that persistence is in the way the models have been handling individual events - they keep seeing snow in the D7 and then it gets amusing watching it get all mucked up. Wow.

Anyway, frankly this persistence has NOT looked altogether La Nina like. It's sort of been off in it's own world.

[CoastalWx]

I also think part of the reason why models have been too bullish to push the MJO into P7-8-1 is because of the classic circulation we have going (Walker cell I believe it's called). We've had this setup where low level winds are converging in the IO or eastern IO areas and the whole system is a stable one. Seems like the phrase "models too quick to break down this pattern" can be applied to that situation as well. The one thing I find interesting about the atmosphere, is how steadfast she is when patterns are stable. It just will not break down until we finally get enough disruptions to weaken or break down the circulation.

[snowNH]

Yeah thx!

I also agree with the "hook up" thing hugely, btw -

I have been carrying around a notion (I am convinced has more validity than not) that the that MJO is more coherently affecting the circulation when outside teleconnectors (such as the WPO/NP/EPO/PNA) allow it to do so? In physical terms, constructive -vs- deconstructive wave interference ... but doing so on large scales.

If the regions outside of 30N (for the MJO's effectiveness in the NH) are being strongly guided by a geopotential gradient established from cold teleconnector sources, than the MJO out-gassing (if you want to call it that) is a much less visibly present, gets muted. That has to be true - the disconnect is clear as you've intimated.

I am not altogether thinking the MJO is ever going to give us the courtesy of a reach around this year. I am starting to suspect that if we don't get an assist from the boss up N, the employees are going to continue to f around and do a dis-service to the diners this go. We could end up with that futility crisis that Jerry talks about some times. It's just a persistence argument alone, but man - this has got to be the most head-banging persistence ever. And frankly, it's one that has an emergent sort of eeriness to it; part of that persistence is in the way the models have been handling individual events - they keep seeing snow in the D7 and then it gets amusing watching it get all mucked up. Wow.

Anyway, frankly this persistence has NOT looked altogether La Nina like. It's sort of been off in it's own world.

In other words, year of the D7 threat and winter cancel?

[CoastalWx]

Yeah thx!

I also agree with the "hook up" thing hugely, btw -

I have been carrying around a notion (I am convinced has more validity than not) that the that MJO is more coherently affecting the circulation when outside teleconnectors (such as the WPO/NP/EPO/PNA) allow it to do so? In physical terms, constructive -vs- deconstructive wave interference ... but doing so on large scales.

If the regions outside of 30N (for the MJO's effectiveness in the NH) are being strongly guided by a geopotential gradient established from cold teleconnector sources, than the MJO out-gassing (if you want to call it that) is a much less visibly present, gets muted. That has to be true - the disconnect is clear as you've intimated.

I am not altogether thinking the MJO is ever going to give us the courtesy of a reach around this year. I am starting to suspect that if we don't get an assist from the boss up N, the employees are going to continue to f around and do a dis-service to the diners this go. We could end up with that futility crisis that Jerry talks about some times. It's just a persistence argument alone, but man - this has got to be the most head-banging persistence ever. And frankly, it's one that has an emergent sort of eeriness to it; part of that persistence is in the way the models have been handling individual events - they keep seeing snow in the D7 and then it gets amusing watching it get all mucked up. Wow.

Anyway, frankly this persistence has NOT looked altogether La Nina like. It's sort of been off in it's own world.

No it hasn't been. Not a 500mb height pattern and temp distribution you would expect.

[CT Rain]

Wow... what a way to end an op Euro run! Lakes Cutter!!!! Rain to Montreal.

[Ji]

Wow... what a way to end an op Euro run! Lakes Cutter!!!! Rain to Montreal.

is that the same euro that gave DC 12-24 inches last week?

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow... what a way to end an op Euro run! Lakes Cutter!!!! Rain to Montreal.

Yeah, I was just looking over that and it really drills home for me the subtext Scott and I were dancing around awhile ago.

The entire circulation of the N. Hemisphere is apparently locked into a regime that whether it looks stable or not on the surface, IS... Given the current thermal/source sink, et al, the atmosphere has come into sync with it, and until something happens to disrupt things en masse, I am beginning to believe that 2011-2012 will go down as:

Spring-Summer-Autumn-Autumn-Spring.

The AO and the PV discussion is the best hope for such a driver. There is a strong warm surge and associated geopotential anomaly showing up in the upper stratosphere of the arctic domain... Perhaps that delivers the goods on blocking 2-3 weeks from now. That would force a regime change toward better if its winter your looking for anyway.

Until then...yeah, it can snow based on local scale permutations and what-nots - kinda like that D4.5 thing on the Euro ...light and fleeting as it may be.

[Typhoon Tip]

is that the same euro that gave DC 12-24 inches last week?

He's aware of that...

when you see someone post an axe-in-the-head, the intent is usually less than scientific and more to bring awareness to adding insult to injury. It's not a prognosis, it's a commiseration, if perhaps an intolerance to addition frustration at even having to look at a chart like that, given the road we've already come.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah, I was just looking over that and it really drills home for me the subtext Scott and I were dancing around awhile ago.

The entire circulation of the N. Hemisphere is apparently locked into a regime that whether it looks stable or not on the surface, IS... Given the current thermal/source sink, et al, the atmosphere has come into sync with it, and until something happens to disrupt things en masse, I am beginning to believe that 2011-2012 will go down as:

Spring-Summer-Autumn-Autumn-Spring.

The AO and the PV discussion is the best hope for such a driver. There is a strong warm surge and associated geopotential anomaly showing up in the upper stratosphere of the arctic domain... Perhaps that delivers the goods on blocking 2-3 weeks from now. That would force a regime change toward better if its winter your looking for anyway.

Until then...yeah, it can snow based on local scale permutations and what-nots - kinda like that D4.5 thing on the Euro ...light and fleeting as it may be.

There's no snow on the Euro...none

[Typhoon Tip]

There's no snow on the Euro...none

I am not going to try and answer to this because your upset, and you're trying to goad me and other Mets into giving you reasons not to be...

[Damage In Tolland]

I am not going to try and answer to this because your upset, and you're trying to goad me and other Mets into giving you reasons not to be...

LOL..I'm not upset at all. Uconn just crushed St Johns and it's NYE.

This winter is snowless . I';ve accepted it and moved on. I suggest you do the same instead of trying to find ways for it to snow in a pattern that won't allow for it

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL..I'm not upset at all. Uconn just crushed St Johns and it's NYE.

This winter is snowless . I';ve accepted it and moved on. I suggest you do the same instead of trying to find ways for it to snow in a pattern that won't allow for it

Nice try -

[KEITH L.I]

Just hard to believe we have had the same basic pattern for over 4 months..something has to give..but euro today is saying not yet.I guess it won't be this way forever.I think we will see the the big change after Jan 20th..and I think february will be decent

[TalcottWx]

I don't think there is anyone voting that dislikes you. Well, maybe two or three...but who really cares about those people. They are probably hermits, shackled to a concrete floor like Sloth from the goonies, anyways.

They definitely live in the mid atlantic

[CoastalWx]

Why does anyone give a flip about the op runs beyond day 7.

[weathafella]

Why does anyone give a flip about the op runs beyond day 7.

The new dead zones:

Between the euro op and ensemble runs and on Monday's and Thursday's the time frm all the euro products to the weeklies.

[CoastalWx]

The new dead zones:

Between the euro op and ensemble runs and on Monday's and Thursday's the time frm all the euro products to the weeklies.

The pattern looks crappy through day 10 anyways, but Kevin is hellbent on the euro past day 7.

[ORH_wxman]

The pattern looks crappy through day 10 anyways, but Kevin is hellbent on the euro past day 7.

Its probably crappy through D12-14 too...as the ensembles have a tendency to rush changes...fretting over operational runs before about Jan 9-10 is probably an exercise for those who like to torture themselves.

[TalcottWx]

[Damage In Tolland]

The pattern looks crappy through day 10 anyways, but Kevin is hellbent on the euro past day 7.

When did I say anything about the Euro past day 7 today? All I said is there is no snow on the Euro like some are hallucinating there is. We are snowless period

[Baroclinic Zone]

Enjoy the cold, it's the only cold you got.

[TalcottWx]

Enjoy the cold, it's the only cold you got.

I put this in the winter weather category. Extreme cold is definitely extremely cool. I for one handle the cold much better than the hot.

[nzucker]

Its probably crappy through D12-14 too...as the ensembles have a tendency to rush changes...fretting over operational runs before about Jan 9-10 is probably an exercise for those who like to torture themselves.

The main signal that the 12z ECM OP gives me, however, is that the pattern change continues to be pushed back. That's one sign that it's not happening this winter, reminiscent a bit of the excitement in 07-08 when the models/ensembles began to see a big Rex block over the Pacific bringing brutal cold and snow threats to the Mid-Atlantic, but it always stayed out in the long range. At first people were saying the pattern would change by the end of December, then the beginning of January, now it's solid warmth out to January 10th...The tenacity of the vortex over the Bering Strait/AK is indeed amazing this year.

Also, I disagree with Mark about those maps showing a -NAO, looks solidly positive to me with a 490dm vortex over Baffin Island and high heights centered from the Azores north in the Sub-tropical Atlantic. Definitely think any hope is going to be with the Pacific side for a while, and even that is looking pretty crappy right now.

[Baroclinic Zone]

When did I say anything about the Euro past day 7 today? All I said is there is no snow on the Euro like some are hallucinating there is. We are snowless period

Guess you never looked at todays 12z Euro.

[Damage In Tolland]

Highs might not get above 10 in the hills on Wed