mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 actually that looks close to the EPO ridge poking towards the pole, and the NAO ridge eventually doing the same, and creating a full high latitude block. Doesn't seem likely this year. But a transition into a -NAO would bring a good chance of a big storm. HM likes the 8th I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I like what looks like an east based -NAO developing there and no semblance of a vortex over the pole. I think the NAO is solidly positive. I don't see any signs of ridging quite yet, despite those pretty orange colors. All that means is that heights are higher than normal, but it doesn't mean there is ridging. I'd say the pattern change is probably after the 10th...closer to mid month, but has also been signaled by the weeklies. I should probably use language less confident, as ther PNA could still screw us, but I'm intrigued so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I think the NAO is solidly positive. I don't see any signs of ridging quite yet, despite those pretty orange colors. All that means is that heights are higher than normal, but it doesn't mean there is ridging. I'd say the pattern change is probably after the 10th...closer to mid month, but has also been signaled by the weeklies. I should probably use language less confident, as ther PNA could still screw us, but I'm intrigued so far. Should this materialize...will be interesting to see how a gradient pattern manifests itself in mid jan vs early and mid dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Lol....late to the party 1993-94? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Lol....late to the party 1993-94? As Ginxy Thought? It will be interesting to see if we can get a steady conduit of cold air after this breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Lol....late to the party 1993-94? Over 80" for the second half here that season. I find it astonishing that people throw in the towel so early and so easily. The love is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Lol....late to the party 1993-94? jerry, been saying it and getting my balls busted but going to stick with it, everything is a month behind, your 12/10-12-25 looks good 1-10 1-25. My bet is epic stretch between 1-20 and 3-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 jerry, been saying it and getting my balls busted but going to stick with it, everything is a month behind, your 12/10-12-25 looks good 1-10 1-25. My bet is epic stretch between 1-20 and 3-7 Make that two of us but I think , here at least the action goes well beyond 3/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Should this materialize...will be interesting to see how a gradient pattern manifests itself in mid jan vs early and mid dec. If we could get temps. even remotely close to climo, I'd feel pretty good for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Make that two of us but I think , here at least the action goes well beyond 3/7. More than likely, lets get this Nina to weaken by then and lets see how the deck is shuffled then. No guarantees but I am going to use a Tip term here, cyrospherically March should be golden for the elevation dudes and dudettes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 JB just put out a map for the remainder of the winter (Mid january onwards) calling for a classic La Nina gradient flow pattern. Much below in the Northwest, below normal most of the west northeastwards to the upper lakes and nipping northern Maine, seasonal in a belt from the lower plains to Upstate NY and the rest of NE, then above normal from NYC south in all of the east. He is engaging in his typical damage control by saying this eastern trough in early January is sort of what he had envisioned for December and now we go to his winter idea after that. Let's hope with a cooperative Pacific we actually get enough cold air to allow southwest flow events to fall as snow in our area. I didn't expect this to be a year for Noreasters, but so far even gradient flow events have been useless south of NH and ME. Should this materialize...will be interesting to see how a gradient pattern manifests itself in mid jan vs early and mid dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'm feeling a little better about things after reading some of the positive sermons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'm feeling a little better about things after reading some of the positive sermons Once you are crowned WOTY will you be doing anything to celebrate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Once you are crowned WOTY will you be doing anything to celebrate? I've wanted nothing to do with that since day 1. All it tells me is that people like me. I'm popular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'm feeling a little better about things after reading some of the positive sermons There is still the inner voice that is somewhat cautious (LOL), but you know what I mean. There are a couple of things that could still screw us, but it's probably the best looking prog I've seen this winter, which doesn't say much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I've wanted nothing to do with that since day 1. All it tells me is that people like me. I'm popular With an hour to go you're a lock to win at this point. Gonna' be a lot of pressure Kev, lot of expectations to live up to. You'll need to double your daily posts heading into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I've wanted nothing to do with that since day 1. All it tells me is that people like me. I'm popular I will say this publicly as you are my friend. I do not consider you to be a true weenie in the original sense of the word. You have knowledge and sensibility of Meteorology, you understand patterns and climo history. What you are in my mind is a passionate lover of extreme weather and of course snow. You are totally a used car salesman with a flair for the dramatic.The real meaning of weather weenie is forever lost, you are a funny well learned hobbyist not a clueless dreamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I checked the MJO progs and the GEFS really stink with forecasting these. They were ticking p7-8 while the euro had then going into the COD and then into phase 4. Looks like the GEFS are going to do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I will say this publicly as you are my friend. I do not consider you to be a true weenie in the original sense of the word. You have knowledge and sensibility of Meteorology, you understand patterns and climo history. What you are in my mind is a passionate lover of extreme weather and of course snow. You are totally a used car salesman with a flair for the dramatic.The real meaning of weather weenie is forever lost, you are a funny well learned hobbyist not a clueless dreamer. LOL>.thank you and I would say you are dead on except the bolded..as I am so not that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 With an hour to go you're a lock to win at this point. Gonna' be a lot of pressure Kev, lot of expectations to live up to. You'll need to double your daily posts heading into January. If all you guys in SNE would go back and change your votes now I won't win. Do it for the Rev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 If all you guys in SNE would go back and change your votes now I won't win. Do it for the Rev I see you as an "educated" and more witty weenie than a classic weenie like some on this board. Everyone knows you and knows how you are. I think it's funny, and we'll knight you at the next conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I see you as an "educated" and more witty weenie than a classic weenie like some on this board. Everyone knows you and knows how you are. I think it's funny, and we'll knight you at the next conference. We should give him a bronzed weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I wonder what Danny Glover thinks? He's always lurking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I see you as an "educated" and more witty weenie than a classic weenie like some on this board. Everyone knows you and knows how you are. I think it's funny, and we'll knight you at the next conference. Well, Ray won, and he and Kev seem to both be very knowledgable. I voted for Kev because there is no "overly exuberant" award. He plays the game and plays it well... Man, I wish we could fast forward 2 weeks or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Well, Ray won, and he and Kev seem to both be very knowledgable. I voted for Kev because there is no "overly exuberant" award. He plays the game and plays it well... Man, I wish we could fast forward 2 weeks or so... Right, both of them exhibit the same traits. Hopefully the money donated can go towards some sort of an award for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Right, both of them exhibit the same traits. Hopefully the money donated can go towards some sort of an award for Kevin. Ray clamored to win and begged for votes..I don't want to win.. Big difference. I never thought I would ever win it..Don't want it..but nothing I can do. What money donated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Ray clamored to win and begged for votes..I don't want to win.. Big difference. I never thought I would ever win it..Don't want it..but nothing I can do. What money collected? The donations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Maybe Tip will win next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I think the NAO is solidly positive. I don't see any signs of ridging quite yet, despite those pretty orange colors. All that means is that heights are higher than normal, but it doesn't mean there is ridging. I'd say the pattern change is probably after the 10th...closer to mid month, but has also been signaled by the weeklies. I should probably use language less confident, as ther PNA could still screw us, but I'm intrigued so far. yeah i'm not a fan of - PNAs (depends how negative of course) i think heavy caution is advised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Maybe Tip will win next year. Like Will says it's a popularity contest now.It's a combo of that and people that don't like you voting for you. That's the way I vote. If I see someone that annoys me I vote for them. So the most popular and/or disliked met will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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