January? Pattern Change Thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm just not pessimistic regarding the 2nd half of this season.....as easy as it would be for me to just blitz the forum with toaster pics given where we are at, I just don't see fit.

[Mr Torchey]

For those that are looking for something like last year as far as cold and snowpack....sorry.

a TEN Minute period of light snow would be great to be honest, that would be a great start.

[CoastalWx]

I'm just not pessimistic regarding the 2nd half of this season.....as easy as it would be for me to just blitz the forum with toaster pics give where we are at, I just don't see fit.

We'll be fighting Nina climo, but if we can get blocking..I'll feel better. IMO, I think if we have no -NAO come early Feb and we are just counting on transient ridges in AK....then the back half could be toast. It's defintely on my mind.

[HM]

Going from a death vortex over Alaska to ridging is a major change we've wanted to see all winter. I don't know how accurate the ensembles are in showing this, but that is a big time change on the PAC side if it happens.

Finally just saw the ensembles myself. Verbatim, they did not look bad at all..I thought they looked decent for New England. They are finally showing high pressure branching in from the Canadian Plains. I have not seen that all winter..certainly welcomed. It's been high pressure all along the deep south so that is nice to see. Whether they are correct..who knows, but they don't seem out to lunch. It does get a little more precarious at the end as Will noted, but we'll just have to see how it goes. I still want to see if this advances in a few days as we get closer.

Agreed. This is a pattern change and the source of the change comes 1/6-1/10. The stream of lows coming off Asia will continue to pull the Alaskan Vortex a little bit more west each time, until ultimately a classic La Nina pattern sets up mid-month. Serious Pacific Lows / cold air is possible for the Northwest during this time. A -EPO / gradient pattern will possibly setup thereafter, too, giving New England a helluva better pattern than the one we've got now.

All pattern recognition techniques / analogs had this idea of a -EPO / RNA mid-month leading to a -NAO ~ January 20th. We'll see about that. But in terms of the Pacific, it is legitimate. And wouldn't you know it, it has a lot to do with the stratospheric warming everyone was ripping apart as useless.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We'll be fighting Nina climo, but if we can get blocking..I'll feel better. IMO, I think if we have no -NAO come early Feb and we are just counting on transient ridges in AK....then the back half could be toast. It's defintely on my mind.

Just a hunch...but I think March overperforms at least excuse imaginable.....doesn't mean that we see a 40" month, but I think it will produce efficiently.

I'm not always a disciple of climo.....this is one of those times.

[Mr Torchey]

We could have a major pattern change but the same sensible wx. I think having longer lived cold with some systems approaching gives us somewhat of a chance. Otherwise it's 2001-02 end to end.

The se ridge remains constant, however if we can at least shuffle the deck in the Pacific and get some ALR then at least we have a fighting chance in a gradient pattern, even without the blocking if ak changes we can sometimes be on the cold side of the gradient especially as climo peaks near mid month into feb.

[HM]

Yeah that's how I look at it. IF the ensembles verify, we would have a shot...maybe even a dumbfounding SWFE or two??

The warming that took place will have an effect on the troposphere, starting with the development of a +h5 anomaly after day 3 across Siberia / N. Pole and aiding in the retrograding Pacific. The block has a lot to do with why the last in a series of Asian Lows displaces southward and begins to pulls heights up in the N PAC.

Now I am not sure if it will go down quite like the GFS suite, but the idea is there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I still think I have a 50\50 shot at catching the rev.

[Alpha5]

Just a hunch...but I think March overperforms at least excuse imaginable.....doesn't mean that we see a 40" month, but I think it will produce efficiently.

I'm not always a disciple of climo.....this is one of those times.

People have been saying that for years. We havent had a good march in a long time...

[Mr Torchey]

I still think I have a 50\50 shot at catching the rev.

You will blow Kevin out of the water, it wont even be close come Feb 15th.

[CoastalWx]

Agreed. This is a pattern change and the source of the change comes 1/6-1/10. The stream of lows coming off Asia will continue to pull the Alaskan Vortex a little bit more west each time, until ultimately a classic La Nina pattern sets up mid-month. Serious Pacific Lows / cold air is possible for the Northwest during this time. A -EPO / gradient pattern will possibly setup thereafter, too, giving New England a helluva better pattern than the one we've got now.

All pattern recognition techniques / analogs had this idea of a -EPO / RNA mid-month leading to a -NAO ~ January 20th. We'll see about that. But in terms of the Pacific, it is legitimate. And wouldn't you know it, it has a lot to do with the stratospheric warming everyone was ripping apart as useless.

I think people were just too quick to use this as a pattern change and that we need to see how it downwells. It seems like the ridge may be a combo of mtn torque and some of that warming...basically warming from the bottom up and top down perhaps? I wouldn't say useless..just that people are to quick to post 1mb temps and then expect a change 1-2 weeks later. Not you obviously, but some other enthusiasts.

Anyways, I just hope it holds, because I'm a little nervous about the pattern reverting..or at least becoming somewhat unfavorable again...but I think these are some of the better looking progs that we have seen in the 11-15 day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

People have been saying that for years. We havent had a good march in a long time...

I got burned last year...that is it.

I called 2010 done when it was done.

Again, I'm not calling for an epic March like I did last year......just a better one than some may expect....at this latitude, anyway.

[CoastalWx]

The warming that took place will have an effect on the troposphere, starting with the development of a +h5 anomaly after day 3 across Siberia / N. Pole and aiding in the retrograding Pacific. The block has a lot to do with why the last in a series of Asian Lows displaces southward and begins to pulls heights up in the N PAC.

Now I am not sure if it will go down quite like the GFS suite, but the idea is there.

BTW, dumbfounding is a shot at Kevin aka CT_Blizz. LOL.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You will blow Kevin out of the water, it wont even be close come Feb 15th.

I'm not as confident as I was because there is an increased likeliehood of this season going on to be a dead ratter....and if that is indeed the case, then he has me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I may have called for a big March 2009, too...not sure.

[Mr Torchey]

I'm not as confident as I was because there is an increased likeliehood of this season going on to be a dead ratter....and if that is indeed the case, then he has me.

If we get a TRUE gradient set up, which I think we will towards late Jan and into Feb, the deepest cold will be to the northeast, I think the se ridge is around for good which isnt such a bad thing especially if we can keep some ridging up by ak, in that case you would do rather well, and we all have a shot but the further northeast one is the better, deeper cold less taint.

[HM]

I think people were just too quick to use this as a pattern change and that we need to see how it downwells. It seems like the ridge may be a combo of mtn torque and some of that warming...basically warming from the bottom up and top down perhaps? I wouldn't say useless..just that people are to quick to post 1mb temps and then expect a change 1-2 weeks later. Not you obviously, but some other enthusiasts.

Anyways, I just hope it holds, because I'm a little nervous about the pattern reverting..or at least becoming somewhat unfavorable again...but I think these are some of the better looking progs that we have seen in the 11-15 day.

Well that's the big question...how about February? In the top 8 best years that are matching the atmospheric state to this winter, all of them saw a -NAO develop Jan 20th or so into February and March; however, they also had a blowtorch February because the Alaskan Vortex returned.

Even if the PV breaks down completely and the NAO tanks in February, if the Alaskan Vortex returns, it will still be a warm month (just not as warm as December). So what will make the forcing not return to Indonesia / phase 4-6 / enhancing the potential come February? Assuming Roundy is right, the forcing will get to the IO around Jan 20th. I would have to imagine by the second week of February, it would be right back into phases 4-6.

[CoastalWx]

Well that's the big question...how about February? In the top 8 best years that are matching the atmospheric state to this winter, all of them saw a -NAO develop Jan 20th or so into February and March; however, they also had a blowtorch February because the Alaskan Vortex returned.

Even if the PV breaks down completely and the NAO tanks in February, if the Alaskan Vortex returns, it will still be a warm month (just not as warm as December). So what will make the forcing not return to Indonesia / phase 4-6 / enhancing the potential come February? Assuming Roundy is right, the forcing will get to the IO around Jan 20th. I would have to imagine by the second week of February, it would be right back into phases 4-6.

Yeah that's the worry I suppose, part of the reason I told Ray that we may be screwed without decent blocking in February..especially if the AK vortex returns and the mjo goes into those wretched phases. Although, I fully admit that I don't have a feeling either way..just talking out loud here. Hopefully the thing just dies a painful death.

Sometimes we can get those late winter MJO burst that herald a weakening La Nina, so maybe we can be blessed by one or two of those.

[HM]

Yeah that's the worry I suppose, part of the reason I told Ray that we may be screwed without decent blocking in February..especially if the AK vortex returns and the mjo goes into those wretched phases. Although, I fully admit that I don't have a feeling either way..just talking out loud here. Hopefully the thing just dies a painful death.

Sometimes we can get those late winter MJO burst that herald a weakening La Nina, so maybe we can be blessed by one or two of those.

That's a good point. If La Niña begins to weaken substantially, that might be an agent in prolonging winter and going out with a bang.

Even if that doesn't happen and we torch again, there are usually some rogue events. In the worst of winters, there is usually something near 2/20 and again 3/10-15. Sometimes these events are the best of the winter season. There would also be some early season spring warmth in between /around these time frames, too.

70s-80s in late winter? lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Agreed. This is a pattern change and the source of the change comes 1/6-1/10. The stream of lows coming off Asia will continue to pull the Alaskan Vortex a little bit more west each time, until ultimately a classic La Nina pattern sets up mid-month. Serious Pacific Lows / cold air is possible for the Northwest during this time. A -EPO / gradient pattern will possibly setup thereafter, too, giving New England a helluva better pattern than the one we've got now.

All pattern recognition techniques / analogs had this idea of a -EPO / RNA mid-month leading to a -NAO ~ January 20th. We'll see about that. But in terms of the Pacific, it is legitimate. And wouldn't you know it, it has a lot to do with the stratospheric warming everyone was ripping apart as useless.

This entire winter thus far has been a cornucopia anti-correlations unrelenting... It really is criminal - haha.

We've not seen a La Nina pattern yet; although, I think the NINA state of -.5 to -1.0 has to be weakly characterized, notwithstanding. No Kelvin's on the move, no sign it will change anytime soon -digression.

There's that, and, the AO/NAO slipped negative in the multi-decadal signals beginning approximately 2006, or '07, and has since been behaving; boy not this year! Jesus, enough already! This +AO is culpable in the +NAO, the latter having much more planetary wave decay at high latitudes, but sharing domain space with former makes it prone to the AO biases. The AO has exceeded +4SD a couple times since the October snow bomb and there you go...

I cannot think of any reason why the AO has been so demonstratively positive for so long other than the sudden uprising in solar flux since the ides of last summer. In fact, there was just yet another CME - it was supposed to be aimed at Earth but I believe it missed. So with this miss and fewer priors since ...mid autumn or whatever, current local solar max's impact on Terran physics may be in reprieve - another digression.

Point was going to be, without the polarward indices laying in a more appropriate cooler geopotential gradient closer to middle latitudes, that has left the middle latitude a bit more susceptible to the whimsy of the MJO and/or any other tropical forcing. Our dumb bad luck has it that the MJO has timed a couple of Phase 4/5 loops over the last 30 days... Those favor the SE heat wall.

Hell, the upshot is that it's been stellar weather in f Florida man. It's been hell incarnate for all these forlorn winter weather lovers farther N.

I wrote extensively in the other thread earlier today ...replete with sardonics and my own style of melt downing... There is evidence mounting that the the AO is about to dive.

It's been a couple years since we've had a solid propagator - it's probably statistically warranted at this point when using the 30 year set over at CDC's strato-trop mon division (where I exploited the above products from). Anyway, the Wave 1 on the right is more important in this. The temperature flux emergence is important, too, but that sucker on the right is right up there in magnitude with other warming events in the past that subsequently demo-ed the downward motion. That's kind of metaphorically an upper stratospheric tsunamis of a geopotential height wave. It probably means that the emerging temperature region is going to get a bit, if not a lot bigger as it continues to emerge. But in needing any SSW to actually propagate as part of the tastier side of the correlation, it's a nice sweet gesture seeing that thick wall of goop showing up like that. I said in that thread it may take 2-3 weeks for an exertion on the AO domain to register.

Perhaps if we can get a better under-running Pac latitudes oriented for other reasons, yeah...bring it on. One thing, the current MJO wave is actually entering mid Phase 6, which spatially represents the West Pac Basin. It's weak-moderate in strength ... again, during time where a weak wave apparently gets exaggerated due to having nearly nothing of intervening factors in play. It's eastward propagation is clad...and is about a pube away from being spatially such that dispersion should favor a better Pac. I find this observation intriguing considering you all have your own methods and we get to a similar conclusion (diff means?).

Well...anyway, hurry up and wait I suppose.

[mahk_webstah]

I think a -NAO combines with an Alaska vortex would not be a disaster here right? At least the interior and NNE. Wouldn't we have a nice SE ridge showing the STJ north, running into the block and reforming off the coast swfe style? I believe it would give us a gradient and potentially a lot of fun? Am I right? If that is where this is headed, bring it. But how does an Alaska vortex teleconnect to a -NAO?

[ORH_wxman]

I think a -NAO combines with an Alaska vortex would not be a disaster here right? At least the interior and NNE. Wouldn't we have a nice SE ridge showing the STJ north, running into the block and reforming off the coast swfe style? I believe it would give us a gradient and potentially a lot of fun? Am I right? If that is where this is headed, bring it. But how does an Alaska vortex teleconnect to a -NAO?

AK vortex with a -NAO pretty much stinks...it can be ok sometimes, but quite frequently it is useless....a good example is December 2001.

[mahk_webstah]

AK vortex with a -NAO pretty much stinks...it can be ok sometimes, but quite frequently it is useless....a good example is December 2001.

lovely, just lovely...one crap pattern to another? It is because there is no cold air to drop into the trough in the east? We have had lots of precip up here with that vortex so I figured it would keep us moist and the NAO would provide enough cold. Oh well....

Overall though is good to hear you putting out hopeful signs. Pretty much nothing good has happened in winter up here in 4 years without you being at least somewhat hopeful. In the truly bad winter of 09-10 it didn't seem as bad because parts of sne as well as the ma were getting huge events....this winter the whole gd east is brown.

[ski MRG]

lovely, just lovely...one crap pattern to another? It is because there is no cold air to drop into the trough in the east? We have had lots of precip up here with that vortex so I figured it would keep us moist and the NAO would provide enough cold. Oh well....

Overall though is good to hear you putting out hopeful signs. Pretty much nothing good has happened in winter up here in 4 years without you being at least somewhat hopeful. In the truly bad winter of 09-10 it didn't seem as bad because parts of sne as well as the ma were getting huge events....this winter the whole gd east is brown.

Don't worry Mark. The majority of Winter still lies ahead. Don't fall prey to this collective despondency, better times ahead. The winter cancel crew are amusing.

[ORH_wxman]

lovely, just lovely...one crap pattern to another? It is because there is no cold air to drop into the trough in the east? We have had lots of precip up here with that vortex so I figured it would keep us moist and the NAO would provide enough cold. Oh well....

Overall though is good to hear you putting out hopeful signs. Pretty much nothing good has happened in winter up here in 4 years without you being at least somewhat hopeful. In the truly bad winter of 09-10 it didn't seem as bad because parts of sne as well as the ma were getting huge events....this winter the whole gd east is brown.

Well the pattern being advertised by the Euro ensembles is not an AK vortex with a -NAO...its ridging over AK and a +NAO. Ridging over AK is the key to getting arctic air down into the CONUS...esp the northern tier. The +NAO will probably tend to want to keep the cold in the northern tier of the country in the means...but who knows if the NAO will start to change later this month. Initially it might be a gradient pattern with real cold to the north which can be good for us...provided the SE ridge isn't too obnoxious.

Step #1 is changing the PAC at least...we can't do much of anything with a huge vortex over AK...even a -NAO frequently will not be enough to offset that....sometimes it can but you'd rather get rid of the AK vortex and then worry about the other details as they come.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well the pattern being advertised by the Euro ensembles is not an AK vortex with a -NAO...its ridging over AK and a +NAO. Ridging over AK is the key to getting arctic air down into the CONUS...esp the northern tier. The +NAO will probably tend to want to keep the cold in the northern tier of the country in the means...but who knows if the NAO will start to change later this month. Initially it might be a gradient pattern with real cold to the north which can be good for us...provided the SE ridge isn't too obnoxious.

Step #1 is changing the PAC at least...we can't do much of anything with a huge vortex over AK...even a -NAO frequently will not be enough to offset that....sometimes it can but you'd rather get rid of the AK vortex and then worry about the other details as they come.

I love the fact that we're becoming less NAO dependent in our expectations here... This has been a contention of mine for awhile, the -NAO is not the be all for laying tracks toward fun city.

I really don't like the NAO. I think it is overrated. A solidly negative NAO causes the flow to be too compressed down the EC.

I look at it this way. The NAO is a snow storm at the entry and exit from NAO negative values; but a scalar negative NAO isn't doing crap but helping to persist a NW flow. In other words, its the delta(NAO) that is key.

I personally would like a huge PNA ridge onset with a neutral EPO in place that's tending negative, while the AO decided to off-load during the prior 3-7 days.

I think the assumption of the D. Straight block is a flawed one, in that the cart is before the horses there. The block, when you look at most storms in the past, was in a state for flux - usually the storm on the EC then loaded the heights prior to the storm its self migrating up and replacing it with negative anomalies. That's all circumstantial though -

[OSUmetstud]

The +AO kinda looks dead on the Day 10 Op Euro...hopefully these type of trends hold as we move forward.

[H2Otown_WX]

The +AO kinda looks dead on the Day 10 Op Euro...hopefully these type of trends hold as we move forward.

The 00z OP GFS has the AK block developing by this time..too bad the Euro doesn't agree. I'm sure the GFS is rushing it though.

[CoastalWx]

I smell a gradient pattern in the 11-15 day.

We are beginning to get into the believable part of any type of regime shift. What I like imo, is that the ridge now allows for arctic high pressure to try and branch out from the Plains of interior Canada into se Canada. We have not seen that all season. However, notice the se ridge is still around. So we may see a battle ground setting the stage here. Western and central Canada are in ice box. The problem that I could see is that we have too strong a -PNA and we are left with a lot of congrats Vim toot, but verbatim...it looks kind of nice right now. We'll have to follow it as we get closer.

[mahk_webstah]

I smell a gradient pattern in the 11-15 day.

We are beginning to get into the believable part of any type of regime shift. What I like imo, is that the ridge now allows for arctic high pressure to try and branch out from the Plains of interior Canada into se Canada. We have not seen that all season. However, notice the se ridge is still around. So we may see a battle ground setting the stage here. Western and central Canada are in ice box. The problem that I could see is that we have too strong a -PNA and we are left with a lot of congrats Vim toot, but verbatim...it looks kind of nice right now. We'll have to follow it as we get closer.

I like what looks like an east based -NAO developing there and no semblance of a vortex over the pole.