Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I've posted ensemble maps that showed the changes in AK. You have simply ignored them. Its fine to say you think they might not be true, but do not say the ensembles do not show change with the vortex in AK because they most certainly do. Oh snap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I've posted ensemble maps that showed the changes in AK. You have simply ignored them. Its fine to say you think they might not be true, but do not say the ensembles do not show change with the vortex in AK because they most certainly do. Have the 11-15 day Euro ensembles been verifying with some degree of accuracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 18z GFS is a torch with a heat dome over the Plains moving eastward next weekend as the -PNA starts to become dominant. SE ridge stays intact into the long-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Wouldn't take much for me to hit those totals... Hopefully after Jan 10 or so we can make up for lost time... Didnt most of that fall in the second half? Looks like it sucked for the cp and the pioneer valley but I remember a few good weeks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Oh snap Snapdown! Eric, we need a pic of Will snapping down Kevin. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 18z GFS is a torch with a heat dome over the Plains moving eastward next weekend as the -PNA starts to become dominant. SE ridge stays intact into the long-range. Wait till after 1/15 is the implication I think. Maybe 1/10 at the earliest but more likely 1/20 or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 18z GFS is a torch with a heat dome over the Plains moving eastward next weekend as the -PNA starts to become dominant. SE ridge stays intact into the long-range. The torch next weekend has been well modeled and of no suprise what happens beyond that is the question, I think our best hope is a true gradient pattern in a swfe regime and hope that climo is enough to deliver the dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 however, there could be some record warmth during this warm up would not shock me in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I've posted ensemble maps that showed the changes in AK. You have simply ignored them. Its fine to say you think they might not be true, but do not say the ensembles do not show change with the vortex in AK because they most certainly do. I havent seen any major changes on anything posted. minor sure..major pattern changing stuff no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 however, there could be some record warmth during this warm up would not shock me in the least. It will probably get pretty mild for a day or two...but I think the torch will be far less impressive in the northeast than it is in the plains...it gets muted a bit as it heads east. At least as of now that's what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I havent seen any major changes on anything posted. minor sure..major pattern changing stuff no Going from a death vortex over Alaska to ridging is a major change we've wanted to see all winter. I don't know how accurate the ensembles are in showing this, but that is a big time change on the PAC side if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Have not given up on the idea of something 1/5 either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Finally just saw the ensembles myself. Verbatim, they did not look bad at all..I thought they looked decent for New England. They are finally showing high pressure branching in from the Canadian Plains. I have not seen that all winter..certainly welcomed. It's been high pressure all along the deep south so that is nice to see. Whether they are correct..who knows, but they don't seem out to lunch. It does get a little more precarious at the end as Will noted, but we'll just have to see how it goes. I still want to see if this advances in a few days as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 will might be the only positive person in the weatherverse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Finally just saw the ensembles myself. Verbatim, they did not look bad at all..I thought they looked decent for New England. They are finally showing high pressure branching in from the Canadian Plains. I have not seen that all winter..certainly welcomed. It's been high pressure all along the deep south so that is nice to see. Whether they are correct..who knows, but they don't seem out to lunch. It does get a little more precarious at the end as Will noted, but we'll just have to see how it goes. I still want to see if this advances in a few days as we get closer. I think we are def going to be battling a -PNA at some point even if the AK ridge gets built up...but that is not all doom and gloom for us...we pulled it off many a time in '07-'08 and '08-'09 gradient type patterns. And at any rate, I think its just good to get the vortex out of there so that when we do see periods of west coast ridging, then it will tap into a true arctic airmass. Ditto for any transient -NAO or a psuedo -NAO...there will be some cold around to tap into instead of the 0C 850 line up around the Canadian border all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 It will probably get pretty mild for a day or two...but I think the torch will be far less impressive in the northeast than it is in the plains...it gets muted a bit as it heads east. At least as of now that's what it looks like. Yeah I'm not sure why this is getting talked up so much as a torch next weekend. It's a couple day warm up which by the way follows the coldest 5 day stretch of the winter thus far...and then I like the idea of another +PNA spike dumping a second shot of arctic air after this warm up.Followed by the progression towards an EPO setup, probably paired with the -PNA as you mentioned for at least the beginning of this period...Lots of cold air to tap into for the country as a whole, and I would think the northwest and northern plains will take the brunt of it...certainly doesnt mean you wont get some chances in later January further east, especially in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 will might be the only positive person in the weatherverse Hes seems to be the only objective person, everyone else has the noose around their neck looking for an excuse to tighten it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I think we are def going to be battling a -PNA at some point even if the AK ridge gets built up...but that is not all doom and gloom for us...we pulled it off many a time in '07-'08 and '08-'09 gradient type patterns. And at any rate, I think its just good to get the vortex out of there so that when we do see periods of west coast ridging, then it will tap into a true arctic airmass. Ditto for any transient -NAO or a psuedo -NAO...there will be some cold around to tap into instead of the 0C 850 line up around the Canadian border all the time. Yeah I'm hoping we can take advantage of that pattern. I'll start to get excited when that ridging is inside d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Yeah I'm hoping we can take advantage of that pattern. I'll start to get excited when that ridging is inside d10. At least its actually getting closer....a few days ago it was around Jan 10th...and it still is Jan 10th. Hasn't moved back yet. I suspect it will, but that doesn't mean it won't happen either. The PV just splits in half around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 looks to me that by mid month we get a couple chances for snow! just have to hold on a few weeks and whon knows may be Thursday we will get a surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Think of the irony... Most of the late fall and winter until recently, Kevin has been positive and Will and Scott have been reality checks. Now that they are seeing some positive changes, Kevin won't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Think of the irony... Most of the late fall and winter until recently, Kevin has been positive and Will and Scott have been reality checks. Now that they are seeing some positive changes, Kevin won't buy it. We've just been burned too many times this winter. Just when things looked they would change for the better they flipped back the other way.I hope they are right about a major pattern change mid-late month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Think of the irony... Most of the late fall and winter until recently, Kevin has been positive and Will and Scott have been reality checks. Now that they are seeing some positive changes, Kevin won't buy it. Well it's not like we have a massive locked in pattern change on the way by any means. I think we know what the downfall is, but it's getting into the believable range. It's of interest to me, but I want to get it at d10. I think it's one of the better looking patterns we've seen all season. Yes I know it doesn't mean much, but we should keep an eye on it because it's kind of nice looking for our area, as far as chances go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Well it's not like we have a massive locked in pattern change on the way by any means. I think we know what the downfall is, but it's getting into the believable range. It's of interest to me, but I want to get it at d10. I think it's one of the better looking patterns we've seen all season. Yes I know it doesn't mean much, but we should keep an eye on it because it's kind of nice looking for our area, as far as chances go. For those that are looking for something like last year as far as cold and snowpack....sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 For those that are looking for something like last year as far as cold and snowpack....sorry. This is what I mean....if that is folks' defenition of a pattern change, then no........SOL; however if you are simply looking for a regime in which snow can again be conceived of, then there is plenty of hope in the offing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 For those that are looking for something like last year as far as cold and snowpack....sorry. Yeah we are still lacking a -NAO, but getting the cold into the northern tier is step one...and at least might give us a chance. Hopefully we can see a -NAO at some point or even a pumped N ATL ridge type pattern. That would certainly help a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This is what I mean....if that is folks' defenition of a pattern change, then no........SOL; however if you are simply looking for a regime in which snow can again be conceived of, then there is plenty of hope in the offing. That's how I see it. We could have chances, but maybe 3-4 days later, we rain...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I do think the CP of sne is in for at least one MECS at some point this season....ie, 8"+..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 We've just been burned too many times this winter. Just when things looked they would change for the better they flipped back the other way.I hope they are right about a major pattern change mid-late month We could have a major pattern change but the same sensible wx. I think having longer lived cold with some systems approaching gives us somewhat of a chance. Otherwise it's 2001-02 end to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Yeah we are still lacking a -NAO, but getting the cold into the northern tier is step one...and at least might give us a chance. Hopefully we can see a -NAO at some point or even a pumped N ATL ridge type pattern. That would certainly help a little more. Yeah that's how I look at it. IF the ensembles verify, we would have a shot...maybe even a dumbfounding SWFE or two?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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