OKpowdah Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 500 heights look interesting for jan 9-11. all ensembles are now hinting at a trough around east, however, it looks like surface temps are warm. Seems like the setup we saw just a week ago with regards to the upcoming week. Surface temps lag. If a torch is interesting, then by all means, Jan 9-11 looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This just makes me feel sick. Such a helpless feeling this winter. All we've got is Feb and that's not a lock And in looking at the latest European weeklies, I'd swear they've been reprinted from the winter of 2001-2002. I know they are brand spanking new, but after next week, there's an awful lot of warmth being forecast for the REST of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Jerry FTW with his original outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This just makes me feel sick. Such a helpless feeling this winter. All we've got is Feb and that's not a lock And in looking at the latest European weeklies, I'd swear they've been reprinted from the winter of 2001-2002. I know they are brand spanking new, but after next week, there's an awful lot of warmth being forecast for the REST of January. who is this/ you should name the quoter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 who is this/ you should name the quoter Lundberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Lundberg Thanks, damn that is not good news, wonder why the Ens speak different theme than the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Thanks, damn that is not good news, wonder why the Ens speak different theme than the weeklies. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31439-the-snowless-winter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 LOL Kev retweeted this, irony at its best higdonmarathon weather is one thing we can never control.however,we can control our reactions to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Ensembles continue to break down the AK vortex in the Jan 10-12 timeframe...however as we go further out toward Jan 15, the PNA wants to go more negative which will tend to make the SE ridge more of a factor...the -EPO will help get cold into the northern tier so a gradient pattern may develop...but if its too robust with SE ridge, we may end up on the wrong side at times. Still, I'd much rather take our chances with that pattern than the one we've been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Ensembles continue to break down the AK vortex in the Jan 10-12 timeframe...however as we go further out toward Jan 15, the PNA wants to go more negative which will tend to make the SE ridge more of a factor...the -EPO will help get cold into the northern tier so a gradient pattern may develop...but if its too robust with SE ridge, we may end up on the wrong side at times. Still, I'd much rather take our chances with that pattern than the one we've been in. would take that pattern in a heartbeat. especially if we can get a little -nao with it from time to time. longest stretch of depression I remember on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Ensembles continue to break down the AK vortex in the Jan 10-12 timeframe...however as we go further out toward Jan 15, the PNA wants to go more negative which will tend to make the SE ridge more of a factor...the -EPO will help get cold into the northern tier so a gradient pattern may develop...but if its too robust with SE ridge, we may end up on the wrong side at times. Still, I'd much rather take our chances with that pattern than the one we've been in. Sounds about right....not a great pattern, but one we can live with after about mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Sounds about right....not a great pattern, but one we can live with after about mid month. If we can get some push over the pole we have the potential for fun. I suspect all it will bring is 50% above and 50% below which is way better. And probably gets us some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This just makes me feel sick. Such a helpless feeling this winter. All we've got is Feb and that's not a lock And in looking at the latest European weeklies, I'd swear they've been reprinted from the winter of 2001-2002. I know they are brand spanking new, but after next week, there's an awful lot of warmth being forecast for the REST of January. I don't buy a wall-to-wall torch in January....I'd follow the ensembles. Weeklies are due to lay an egg in weeks3-4, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 would take that pattern in a heartbeat. especially if we can get a little -nao with it from time to time. longest stretch of depression I remember on this board. 2006-07.....we're running neck and neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 If we can get some push over the pole we have the potential for fun. I suspect all it will bring is 50% above and 50% below which is way better. And probably gets us some snow. That is fine at the nadir of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 If we can get some push over the pole we have the potential for fun. I suspect all it will bring is 50% above and 50% below which is way better. And probably gets us some snow. It's got to snow at some point, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 2006-07.....we're running neck and neck. Not a bad sensible analog to what I think will go down.....just add the Oct totals to it....maybe plus a bit more.for the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Not a bad sensible analog to what I think will go down.....just add the Oct totals to it....maybe plus a bit more.for the cp. 32.5" ('06-07) + 4.3" (Oct) + 6 = 42.8" Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 2006-07.....we're running neck and neck. i meant since I moved to New England.... I was used to long stretches in Philly lol. We had a bad stretch up here in 09-10 though better for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 i meant since I moved to New England.... I was used to long stretches in Philly lol. We had a bad stretch up here in 09-10 though better for you. 09-10 sucked for me. From 1/2 onward I got like 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 2006-07.....we're running neck and neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Awful near the coast south of the MA/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Wouldn't take much for me to hit those totals... Hopefully after Jan 10 or so we can make up for lost time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 09-10 sucked for me. From 1/2 onward I got like 6 inches. That's when it got good here Feb was great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Ensembles continue to break down the AK vortex in the Jan 10-12 timeframe...however as we go further out toward Jan 15, the PNA wants to go more negative which will tend to make the SE ridge more of a factor...the -EPO will help get cold into the northern tier so a gradient pattern may develop...but if its too robust with SE ridge, we may end up on the wrong side at times. Still, I'd much rather take our chances with that pattern than the one we've been in. Some better news then what we have had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Lundberg He's never seen a torch he didn't like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 09-10 sucked for me. From 1/2 onward I got like 6 inches. Terrible winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 At this point...any ridging in AK will likely be better by default since the pattern we've been in can't get a whole lot worse...that vortex that kept reappearing is just bad news. I'm hoping we can keep it out of there for a while once it goes post-Jan 10th...there is always worry it comes back though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 He's never seen a torch he didn't like. Agreed..but when absolutely nothing is changing on the ensembles or weeklies with the vortex stuck in Alaska, and the indices insanely poistive and the Atlantic looking like hell..why would anyone think the 2nd half of Jan will turn wintry? Nothing remotely shows that..so it's best to continually go warm. It blows, but this winter it's reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Agreed..but when absolutely nothing is changing on the ensembles or weeklies with the vortex stuck in Alaska, and the indices insanely poistive and the Atlantic looking like hell..why would anyone think the 2nd half of Jan will turn wintry? Nothing remotely shows that..so it's best to continually go warm. It blows, but this winter it's reality I've posted ensemble maps that showed the changes in AK. You have simply ignored them. Its fine to say you think they might not be true, but do not say the ensembles do not show change with the vortex in AK because they most certainly do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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