mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yeah for people rooting for +NAOs, I think you need to ask them how they thought '98-'99, '99-'00, '01-'02, '94-'95, 91-'92, '90-'91, '89-'90, and '88-'89 were...there's spome good +NAO years in there like '07-'08 and '93-'94, but overall they tend to stink....even for NNE...except maybe Vim toot. ok ok ok I'm not "rooting" for a +NAO...it can be a part of a good pattern sometimes. I am wounded from 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 ok ok ok I'm not "rooting" for a +NAO...it can be a part of a good pattern sometimes. I am wounded from 09-10 well that one was on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Well at least it sounds like we are not regressing which is good. I remember what it looked like before I left so it sounds like the signs are there for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 ok ok ok I'm not "rooting" for a +NAO...it can be a part of a good pattern sometimes. I am wounded from 09-10 That was epic magnitude coupled with bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 ok ok ok I'm not "rooting" for a +NAO...it can be a part of a good pattern sometimes. I am wounded from 09-10 Well '09-'10 wasn't just a regular -NAO...it was off the charts extreme and also west based. That has potential to skunk us when its that extreme and placed like that. However, not all the time even in those scenarios. February 1969 is one of the most extreme west based -NAOs and I'm sure many here would take that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 They are def trying to ridge up the Aleutians and up into the Bering Straight...the PV is strong over Baffin Island on the Atlantic side and the other part goes south into Russia and starts to weaken late in the period. Cool thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Cool thanks. You can see the ridge axis in red here....and obviously the ugly Davis Straight/Baffin Island PV still hanging out but at least the PAC side is getting better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 What is the "NAO styled ridge over Quebec that LC is referring to as coming next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You can see the ridge axis in red here....and obviously the ugly Davis Straight/Baffin Island PV still hanging out but at least the PAC side is getting better Ah, Thanks for the pic. That would be welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 What is the "NAO styled ridge over Quebec that LC is referring to as coming next week? He has been calling for a pattern change in his FB newsletters for like a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Ah, Thanks for the pic. That would be welcomed. Yeah its not perfect but def a big change...I think what we would see as we get closer is that the ridge will be pumped up higher into the arctic...being so far out always gives us a smoothed view. "Getting closer" meaning when the change actually happens...it might not happen Jan 10-12 like the ensembles show...could be a bit later, but who knows for sure. We know how they sometimes like to rush things...but the biggest positive is that we are finally seeing this on the ensembles just like we wanted to when those weeklies came out showing the ridging getting going there. With the +NAO making a nice home around Baffin Island, I'm sure we'll still have to deal with the SE ridge at times and we won't see non-stop wintry temps, but at least this would give us some legit chances I think and make the cold intrusions more frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 What is the "NAO styled ridge over Quebec that LC is referring to as coming next week? It shows up best on today's Canadian run....a bit of split flow develops and causes ridging over Quebec that can sort of act as a pseudo-NAO while its there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Do the euro ensembles have a trough over the west in the 11-15 day range or is it more in the central us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 He has been calling for a pattern change in his FB newsletters for like a month. That's wrong!!!!!!! It's been a month and a half.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It shows up best on today's Canadian run....a bit of split flow develops and causes ridging over Quebec that can sort of act as a pseudo-NAO while its there can we cash in on that shxt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 There has to be some towns in Alaska that are just buried in snow, probably in the Haines AK area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 How does the EURO look for southern Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 How does the EURO look for southern Ontario.. cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 How does the EURO look for southern Ontario.. Really cold except for a much above normal bubble over Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Awful pattern of cold -> warm rain -> cold looks to continue for all of JAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Really cold except for a much above normal bubble over Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 ottawablizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 There was a slight negative NAO for that one...it wasn't ideal, but it was a lot better than our current Atlantic look. That was created by the uLL closing off, just prior it was raging positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 That was created by the uLL closing off, just prior it was raging positive. The NAO went negative on Dec 1 that year....4 days before the storm, and then went positive by Dec 8, 1 day after the storm ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Euro looks like the pattern change is right on track days 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Euro looks like the pattern change is right on track days 8-10 The change is well beyond that time on ensembles...more like D12-15...and even that has already been said that its likely rushed. Looking at the D8-10 operational Euro is going to be completely useless if you are looking for any potential pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Euro looks like the pattern change is right on track days 8-10 It doesn't really show the pattern change at all to d10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The change is well beyond that time on ensembles...more like D12-15...and even that has already been said that its likely rushed. Looking at the D8-10 operational Euro is going to be completely useless if you are looking for any potential pattern change. the 00z ecmwf ensembles are much colder and slightly better looking than the 12z op anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 the 00z ecmwf ensembles are much colder and slightly better looking than the 12z op anyway. The 12z OP ECM is absolutely brutal. Huge SE ridge at the end of the run with the maintenance of the Baffin Island/Davis Strait vortex...heights are also very low on the Pacific side with a low over AK/Bering Strait area. 850mb temps of 8C approaching NYC on 1/8, unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The NAO went negative on Dec 1 that year....4 days before the storm, and then went positive by Dec 8, 1 day after the storm ended. Must have been way East based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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