40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The cold shot would be transient because it only sticks around for 4 days...just because the warmth is transient too doesn't make the cold permanent. If the cold period potentially advertised after the 10th comes true, then that one might be more of a regime shift...more potential to stick around if we are changing the PAC. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Been obvious for awhile now. No it hasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 No it hasn't Yes, it has. Just like my December thread should have been deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yes, it has. Just like my December thread should have been deleted You're like DT. You get completely lucky on a guess and then pat yourself on the back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You're like DT. You get completely lucky on a guess and then pat yourself on the back Very educated guess....it was very apparent that if there were ever a pattern to support a T of snow for December in my hood, then this would have been it....lo and behold..... Did I need a little luck, sure...but in weather you always do because there is such a great deal of inherent chaos...especially at extended leads. PS: This pattern has gotten to you, WOTY finalist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Very educated guess....it was very apparent that if there were ever a pattern to support a T of snow for December in my hood, then this would have been it....lo and behold..... Did I need a little luck, sure...but in weather you always do because there is such a great deal of inherent chaos...especially at extended leads. PS: This pattern has gotten to you, WOTY finalist. It was all luck and no skill. Hopefully you are enjoying the year there was no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It was all luck and no skill. Hopefully you are enjoying the year there was no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It was all luck and no skill. Hopefully you are enjoying the year there was no snow I blame you. Too zealous about last winter and October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The good news about this winter is I've learned a ton about what it takes to achieve a good pattern for snowstorms.. with all of this talk about PNA, NAO, Alaskan vortexes, etc.. I can now better understand what the hell Will, tip, Scott, etc.. are talking about when it comes to teleconnectors/patterns.. In previous years, I would just hope for a trend east or west to get storms.. not the case anymore. Now I know if we have a +nao and we have a storm, we are probably screwed. I remember a post I posted during the 2009-2010 winter saying "do you guys just wish we had a +nao to get those storms up to NE?" Now I know that was an idiot post I bet most of you feel the same way. I still have a feeling were gonna have another major storm this winter and that week of watching models, weenieing out, raising laptops, and watching 2-3" hour snows will make this cruddy pattern be a distant memory in the back of our minds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The good news about this winter is I've learned a ton about what it takes to achieve a good pattern for snowstorms.. with all of this talk about PNA, NAO, Alaskan vortexes, etc.. I can now better understand what the hell Will, tip, Scott, etc.. are talking about when it comes to teleconnectors/patterns.. In previous years, I would just hope for a trend east or west to get storms.. not the case anymore. Now I know if we have a +nao and we have a storm, we are probably screwed. I remember a post I posted during the 2009-2010 winter saying "do you guys just wish we had a +nao to get those storms up to NE?" Now I know that was an idiot post I bet most of you feel the same way. I still have a feeling were gonna have another major storm this winter and that week of watching models, weenieing out, raising laptops, and watching 2-3" hour snows will make this cruddy pattern be a distant memory in the back of our minds Don't get sucked into that mid atlantic state of mind. We do not need a -NAO. 93-94 was an awesome +Nao winter. Depends on other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Don't get sucked into that mid atlantic state of mind. We do not need a -NAO. 93-94 was an awesome +Nao winter. Depends on other factors. Yeah exactly. The problem is that we have an AK vortex that is helping to torch the country. With a + nao it is helping to cut storms west, but if we had that ridge into AK or even the Aleutians... We probably would not have this problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 exactly....i've learned to like +NAOs cuz I'm not smokin cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You need at least one index in your favor, though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You need at least one index in your favor, though lol Dec 5-7 2003 which index was good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 exactly....i've learned to like +NAOs cuz I'm not smokin cirrus. +NAOs overall are bad for us...they are only manageable if the PAC is good. We can get away with a bad PAC with a -NAO easier. So I don't think you should root for a +NAO...you end up with months like this December when you get a +NAO and the PAC is ugly. A big -EPO with a +NAO will be ok for us...that usually produces a big gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Dec 5-7 2003 which index was good? There was a slight negative NAO for that one...it wasn't ideal, but it was a lot better than our current Atlantic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 There was a slight negative NAO for that one...it wasn't ideal, but it was a lot better than our current Atlantic look. Not to mention that there are more exceptions to the rules on the bookends of the season owed to the shorter wavelengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The EC ensembles definitely continue to try and change the PAC in the long range. That is probably our ticket out of this wretched pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The EC ensembles definitely continue to try and change the PAC in the long range. That is probably our ticket out of this wretched pattern. AK still breaking down in 8-10 days as per the EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 AK still breaking down in 8-10 days as per the EC? No, its been in the 12-15 day time range...we're hoping it moves into the D10 time range by New Years. The big changes really happen at about 300h which is Jan 10th. Its possible and maybe even likely that the ensembles are rushing this change as is often the case when we are trying to break out of a long term pattern....but its something I think will end up happening...maybe just not quite as fast as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 brutal cold...straight from the nnw. sub-zero lows for most in the interior northeast. Over a snowless Earth, no less! hard to do that coming down slope. true it isn't like the front range of the rockies, but those kind of temperatures as modeled are pushing the envelope for this latitude, and usually needs a solid cryosphere for realization. i bet if push comes to shove and our endearing snow fans get yet another week of butt banging by the weather gods, that air mass finds a way to alleviate some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The GFS ensemble seems to suggest that the MJO will enter phases 7 and 8 in the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The GFS ensemble seems to suggest that the MJO will enter phases 7 and 8 in the next couple of weeks. Keep in mind, that inner circle is a region the demarcates a very weak/incoherent wave presence. If the wave passes close to the inner aspect of that chart, and/or crosses into that region, any expectation of influence on the pattern as a whole drops off substantially. In other words, that's a very weak Phase 7 at best - not to be a deb downer but it is what it is - that probably doesn't mean anything good, or bad for that matter. That said, no wave presence may - ironically - be a factor in its self. Without a wave at all, that could/would/should allow other factors to control the Pacific layout and subsequent relay of the westerlies into North America. During the recent 10 days, the wave spent a week's worth in that inner circle; while perhaps not directly culpable, it is not surprising that the overall circulation started morphing into a +PNA during that time. Phase 5 is bad for eastern N/A troughs, but we see that the wave is wasting no time in escaping that Phase ... propagating east substantially by day (above). Phase 6 is not exactly a charm either, but it's heading in the right direction. In any event, it may not be present in these wave-spaces long enough to incur an alteration on the flow for the time being. I do suspect, however, they are having some affect/effect. There was a high amplitude meridional flow appeal to the circulation of N/A ... also one that led the Euro into throwing up a bible bomb along the East Coast a couple days back. I think it plausible that the Phase 5/6 dispersion down stream into the overall flow has compressed some of the latitudinal aspect (North Souh orientation), favoring more longitude... Now we see shallower systems rolling in off the Pacific since, with longer L/W wave lengths coast to coast. Just a hunch though. Not to venture too deeply into details... I don't think the Jan 3 system is totally a loss just yet. There is still just enough meridional surging to the flow (tied into a +PNA spike that is well advertised and verifying as we speak), that if a stronger actual S/W gets ejected out of the Pacific than is currently modeled, we could see a sharper, faster wave break heading into the OV. That would change the sensible weather in the upper MA/NE regions upon exit, in a bit of a hurry. It may not have the look overall of those previous Euro errors, but it certainly would be a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Not to venture too deeply into details... I don't think the Jan 3 system is totally a loss just yet. There is still just enough meridional surging to the flow (tied into a +PNA spike that is well advertised and verifying as we speak), that if a stronger actual S/W gets ejected out of the Pacific than is currently modeled, we could see a sharper, faster wave break heading into the OV. That would change the sensible weather in the upper MA/NE regions upon exit, in a bit of a hurry. It may not have the look overall of those previous Euro errors, but it certainly would be a pleasant surprise. i think it's worth watching the backside of this mid-week trough. there is some energy progged to dig down...the op models at 00z went really far south and then eventually seaward, but the ens do have some semblance of LP off the MA heading NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It seems to me that the SE ridge ain't what it used to be.... The AK vortex is showing it's age. Our long regional nightmare may have and end in site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 i think it's worth watching the backside of this mid-week trough. there is some energy progged to dig down...the op models at 00z went really far south and then eventually seaward, but the ens do have some semblance of LP off the MA heading NE. Yeah, agreed absolutely here... I know this is probably ad nauseam conceptually, but data sparseness over the Pacific is not as accounted for using satellite soundings as those that defend the products' initializations argue. OR, they need to explain why impulses that finally nose over land, over western N/A, have a high changeability ... rather abruptly at that, when they come east over the continent. I have seen flat waves turn into interesting storms back east, and vice versa, too often right at the time a previously assimilated system suddenly gets sniffed out by denser more physical sounding data. Please explain why, else that assimilation argument is crap to me. Sorry, not to be jerk but I like logic and explanation over accreditation. But I digress.. point being, the Jan 3 thingy is somewhere SW of the Aleutian Arc in the N Pacific right now, where there are 10,000 ships with balloons all lubed up and ready to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 +NAOs overall are bad for us...they are only manageable if the PAC is good. We can get away with a bad PAC with a -NAO easier. So I don't think you should root for a +NAO...you end up with months like this December when you get a +NAO and the PAC is ugly. A big -EPO with a +NAO will be ok for us...that usually produces a big gradient pattern. Yeah that's what I mean. It's ok with a decent PAC. I think people think '07-'08 when they here positive nao but in truth that can hurt us especially sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Will, are the ensembles trying to shove the vortex more into the north pole, or are they trying to put a ridge into the Aleutians? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yeah that's what I mean. It's ok with a decent PAC. I think people think '07-'08 when they here positive nao but in truth that can hurt us especially sne. Yeah for people rooting for +NAOs, I think you need to ask them how they thought '98-'99, '99-'00, '01-'02, '94-'95, 91-'92, '90-'91, '89-'90, and '88-'89 were...there's spome good +NAO years in there like '07-'08 and '93-'94, but overall they tend to stink....even for NNE...except maybe Vim toot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Will, are the ensembles trying to shove the vortex more into the north pole, or are they trying to put a ridge into the Aleutians? They are def trying to ridge up the Aleutians and up into the Bering Straight...the PV is strong over Baffin Island on the Atlantic side and the other part goes south into Russia and starts to weaken late in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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