Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Enjoy. Loop these and check out the developing positive height anomalies near Greenland and the Davis Straight by the end of the run.

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

That looks decent but unfortunately the Euro ensembles have nothing of the sort on the Atlantic side...they keep a strong vortex in the Davis Straight. Baffin Island is going to be lifeless by the end of this winter....totally frozen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Enjoy. Loop these and check out the developing positive height anomalies near Greenland and the Davis Straight by the end of the run.

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

EC ens get some pos anomalies to the southern tip of Greenland d12-15, but nothing into Baffin Island. At least there seems to be some signs of movement with some of the large scale features.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Days 11-15 are cold on the Euro ENS, brief transient warm up between cold shots, now that's a switch. Surprised no one mentioned it. When it was transient cold we saw tons of posts.

Did not hear of any mention by the mets on the ensembles today, Actually there is i read a few post back, We shall see if the get inside 10 days and they still show cold and changes out west

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Days 11-15 are cold on the Euro ENS, brief transient warm up between cold shots, now that's a switch. Surprised no one mentioned it. When it was transient cold we saw tons of posts.

Looks like things may finally flip, I dont think we will ever get into a pattern that is all winter all the time like the 6 weeks experieced last winter but Alaska and the Pacific are looking much better, imagine what a little blocking would have done for us next week

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mentioned in my post that i went back and saw yours and a few others, I did miss them though seeing i am bouncing in and out of 4 threads on here.....lol

Yeah you edited it right as I was replying.

I'm hoping the big changes we see in Alaska will actually become more apparent as we get closer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We might torch again in the Jan 7-10 time frame, but its a bit uncertain right now. The cold shot looks pretty impressive, but its relatively transient...there is more cold that looks like it wants to come down around mid-month, but it also looks like we could have the aformentioned milder period.

If its cold next week and warmer for 3 days then cold the next week, how is the cold transient, isn't the warmth transient this go around ENS wise?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like things may finally flip, I dont think we will ever get into a pattern that is all winter all the time like the 6 weeks experieced last winter but Alaska and the Pacific are looking much better, imagine what a little blocking would have done for us next week

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgYqIvnPvqQ

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If its cold next week and warmer for 3 days then cold the next week, how is the cold transient, isn't the warmth transient this go around ENS wise?

The cold shot would be transient because it only sticks around for 4 days...just because the warmth is transient too doesn't make the cold permanent. If the cold period potentially advertised after the 10th comes true, then that one might be more of a regime shift...more potential to stick around if we are changing the PAC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah you edited it right as I was replying.

I'm hoping the big changes we see in Alaska will actually become more apparent as we get closer.

Yeah, I hope your right, This pattern is really starting to eat at a lot of people not just on this board but a couple of others that i am on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The cold shot would be transient because it only sticks around for 4 days...just because the warmth is transient too doesn't make the cold permanent. If the cold period potentially advertised after the 10th comes true, then that one might be more of a regime shift...more potential to stick around if we are changing the PAC.

gotcha, but out of the next 15 per the model we are normal to below for 11, that's a good sign.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Enjoy. Loop these and check out the developing positive height anomalies near Greenland and the Davis Straight by the end of the run.

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

The PAC really breaks down in the long-range, unfortunately, on the GEFS. Nice looking Davis Strait block but a fairly flat Aleutian ridge with a large -PNA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro is damn cold for next Wed into Thu. -24C 850s here with -28C poking into N VT. That's single digit high temps here before the sfc high builds in the following night. Even if the Euro is overdoing it it's going to be damn cold for bare ground.

brutal cold...straight from the nnw. sub-zero lows for most in the interior northeast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...