POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 He also says on twitter that the Euro is just wobbling and that the Apps track will hold true. I just don't get his logic sometimes. Every model is saying no, so one model says yes. He says go with that one. The model that said yes says no, but now it's wrong even though it was correct last night but no other models really back it up. Just confusing sometimes...at least open up to the possibility this might be a southern slider. on last saturday he said a storm would develop and go through Tenn Valley to the northeast. That was before anything was said about it. I believe he is just like all of the rest nobody has handled this winter. Go back to January the whole board except for a few said winter was over, cold air is gone and then when he said pattern would change everybody said he was wrong. Then when he gets the pattern he is still wrong. I agree a lot of flip flopping this year but who hasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 JB tweet: "Why my concerns about MJO phases? 2 and 3 in February and March are the US wheelhouse of winter." He also mentions despite the -AO we've had, the MJO phases of 4 and 5 trumped the oscillation, so his thinking is the MJO will trump it again late Feb into March for a colder pattern. Phase 3 in March is near normal in the E US, not cold, on average per RaleighWx's maps fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 on last saturday he said a storm would develop and go through Tenn Valley to the northeast. That was before anything was said about it. I believe he is just like all of the rest nobody has handled this winter. Go back to January the whole board except for a few said winter was over, cold air is gone and then when he said pattern would change everybody said he was wrong. Then when he gets the pattern he is still wrong. I agree a lot of flip flopping this year but who hasn't Some mets and amateurs have been right about this winter without flip flopping and it's been pointed out to you on a number of occasions. I don't understand why you keep falling back on that line of nobody was right about winter and everyone struggled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 on last saturday he said a storm would develop and go through Tenn Valley to the northeast. That was before anything was said about it. I believe he is just like all of the rest nobody has handled this winter. Go back to January the whole board except for a few said winter was over, cold air is gone and then when he said pattern would change everybody said he was wrong. Then when he gets the pattern he is still wrong. I agree a lot of flip flopping this year but who hasn't Again the problem is I think especially on twitter speaking in such an absolute way. That's why I applaud whoever made the fake JB account on twitter... www.twitter.com/liljoebastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Some mets and amateurs have been right about this winter without flip flopping and it's been pointed out to you on a number of occasions. I don't understand why you keep falling back on that line of nobody was right about winter and everyone struggled. How many times have you said winter is over this year? Very few have been right this year. Go back and look at the winter forecast that everybody put out and only a few have been accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 How many times have you said winter is over this year? Very few have been right this year. Go back and look at the winter forecast that everybody put out and only a few have been accurate. Thia isn't about me. I called winter over about a month ago and it only happened once. I'm referring to some mets in our own sub-forum who nailed the winter forecast. It doesn't take a separate thread with a winter forecast to make someone right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Thia isn't about me. I called winter over about a month ago and it only happened once. I'm referring to some mets in our own sub-forum who nailed the winter forecast. It doesn't take a separate thread with a winter forecast to make someone right. who in the southeast forum got it right? Everybody say Don S, Roger Smith, and Will but they aren't in the southeast. If you look back to August JB had it perfect but then changed and missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 who in the southeast forum got it right? Everybody say Don S, Roger Smith, and Will but they aren't in the southeast. If you look back to August JB had it perfect but then changed and missed it. Again I don't really care about his long range forecast. I get that people like him and he probably does offer some good advice. However if Robert came on here and made statements like, "this storm will track south and give all of NC a huge snow" and did this on multiple occasions while be wrong would he still be taken seriously? It's an interesting question there would be many on here who still would take him seriously...however I have a feeling a lot would get tired of it and he would probably get chased out of every thread he posted in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 who in the southeast forum got it right? Everybody say Don S, Roger Smith, and Will but they aren't in the southeast. If you look back to August JB had it perfect but then changed and missed it. eyewall, nrgjeff, and Mr. Bob to name three mets off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Again I don't really care about his long range forecast. I get that people like him and he probably does offer some good advice. However if Robert came on here and made statements like, "this storm will track south and give all of NC a huge snow" and did this on multiple occasions while be wrong would he still be taken seriously? It's an interesting question there would be many on here who still would take him seriously...however I have a feeling a lot would get tired of it and he would probably get chased out of every thread he posted in. I agree totally as Robert and myself have talked about this. I went to his house a couple of weeks ago and we looked at JB's site and how he does things. being in the spotlight you do have to watch what you say and do. As many take every word serious especially if it pertains to snow. I like watching JB. I don't always agree with him however when he is right nobody gives the credit. Especially the young whipper snappers that think they know more about weather than some of the mets. I will take Robert all day over JB as Robert has said over and over our area is the hardest area to predict weather anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Again I don't really care about his long range forecast. I get that people like him and he probably does offer some good advice. However if Robert came on here and made statements like, "this storm will track south and give all of NC a huge snow" and did this on multiple occasions while be wrong would he still be taken seriously? It's an interesting question there would be many on here who still would take him seriously...however I have a feeling a lot would get tired of it and he would probably get chased out of every thread he posted in. I posted his tweet earlier about the MJO, but I don't know enough to contradict what anyone thinks about Bastardi. I do agree with some on here who say he is a emotional forecaster, who goes overboard on his storm predictions. Also, after following him for many years on Accuweather, I do know that he will side with models that have the outcome he wants. Every winter when there is a situation like this weekend, he will always go with the model or models that don't have the storm suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 eyewall, nrgjeff, and Mr. Bob to name three mets off the top of my head. Iirc they were right on temps going with typical nina climo. But they were wrong on how wet it has been. It's been an unusual year for weather in north America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Iirc they were right on temps going with typical nina climo. But they were wrong on how wet it has been. It's been an unusual year for weather in north America. Those three guys can defend themselves so I'll leave you with this and then drop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looks very wet in places that are suppose to be dry in a nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I posted his tweet earlier about the MJO, but I don't know enough to contradict what anyone thinks about Bastardi. I do agree with some on here who say he is a emotional forecaster, who goes overboard on his storm predictions. Also, after following him for many years on Accuweather, I do know that he will side with models that have the outcome he wants. Every winter when there is a situation like this weekend, he will always go with the model or models that don't have the storm suppressed. I don't get why people think it is hypocritical to go with the model they think is right, or even go against all models. If all you are going to do is go with model consensus, they I really don't need a red tag to tell me anything. I've followed it long enough to look at it and figure it out. What I do like is when a red tagger explains why they beleive one model vs. the other or even thinks they are all wrong (happens pretty often, especially in the long range). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 eyewall, nrgjeff, and Mr. Bob to name three mets off the top of my head. Btw mr. Bob told me himself he didn't do a winter forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Btw mr. Bob told me himself he didn't do a winter forecast Well, ain't POWERSPUNK special...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Btw mr. Bob told me himself he didn't do a winter forecast Thia isn't about me. I called winter over about a month ago and it only happened once. I'm referring to some mets in our own sub-forum who nailed the winter forecast. It doesn't take a separate thread with a winter forecast to make someone right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Btw mr. Bob told me himself he didn't do a winter forecast Not in the classic sense of the weather boards nor in a work related capacity (and barring a hitch in the career path, I won't ever have to again)...I was unequivocally on the warm side all winter though going back to October with posts to prove it, so I will take credit since I have done many such outlooks in the past. Also, the precip pattern is very La Nina-ish considering the mainly weak nature...Precip max in the Ohio and TN Valley with dry conditions in the southeastern coastal plain...the main area of difference has been the positive anomalies in Texas but you would expect some difference with a weaker ENSO signature. There is a nice display on the CPC ENSO page that shows seasonal characteristics of precip, snow and temperature for reference. Finally so as to stay on topic, there is an inherent problem with hyping weather which makes it difficult for those who go into the business of selling their forecasts...TV news does it too. But really, if it makes you, the consumer, happy and/or brings you hope, then it is not really anyone elses business, I suppose. I actually appreciate that you guys built your own thread and kept most of it out of the longer range discussion threads. I think it is good that people put mainly their own thoughts in those threads. I regret picking on this thread in the banter thread in some ways but I still find it rather funny to read through just on a quick skim fashion to see the latest back and forths as he wrestles with the models. As I said earlier...at least you are learning something even if it is mostly just reaching for the stars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not in the classic sense of the weather boards nor in a work related capacity (and barring a hitch in the career path, I won't ever have to again)...I was unequivocally on the warm side all winter though going back to October with posts to prove it, so I will take credit since I have done many such outlooks in the past. Also, the precip pattern is very La Nina-ish considering the mainly weak nature...Precip max in the Ohio and TN Valley with dry conditions in the southeastern coastal plain...the main area of difference has been the positive anomalies in Texas but you would expect some difference with a weaker ENSO signature. There is a nice display on the CPC ENSO page that shows seasonal characteristics of precip, snow and temperature for reference. Finally so as to stay on topic, there is an inherent problem with hyping weather which makes it difficult for those who go into the business of selling their forecasts...TV news does it too. But really, if it makes you, the consumer, happy and/or brings you hope, then it is not really anyone elses business, I suppose. I actually appreciate that you guys built your own thread and kept most of it out of the longer range discussion threads. I think it is good that people put mainly their own thoughts in those threads. I regret picking on this thread in the banter thread in some ways but I still find it rather funny to read through just on a quick skim fashion to see the latest back and forths as he wrestles with the models. As I said earlier...at least you are learning something even if it is mostly just reaching for the stars... I agree with you. I don't hype him just post what he says. However I don't mind anybody to hype some than to wait two days out and oh look here it may snow. He did say on Saturday this storm would be snow north of here but yet some want to keep arguing about coming here when now the models did exactly what he said. His forecasting has been bad but his pattern recognition has been good Speaking of the hypster he said next storm through great lakes will bring cold to us after it goes through. Said fun and games for us next 3-4 weeks. So we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You are correct, many have waffled. I'm just jaded to JB because of how many times I bought into his hype only to be severely disappointed. I've said before I like JB, I think his passion for weather is envious. But the only criticism I have for him is his over hyping of things. I just wanted to re-quote this post from a couple weeks ago. I still stand by this comment. I don't want to come across as a dick, I still like Joe. His over-hyping is probably due to his love for weather which again is enviable. I think he is a good met he should just tone down sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I enjoy reading JB as he does have pretty unique skills pertaining to pattern recognition and teleconnections. He was the only reason I had subscribed to Accuwx for the better part of ten years. Also, he is a very enjoyable read due to his great passion. Furthermore, his work ethic/hours devoted to wx is very impressive. However, one weakness he has is that he too often has a tendency to refer to historic scale events as a good analog. Also, he sometimes tends to hang on forecasting something exciting for too long. This winter, overall, has been tough for him. DonSutherland has been doing extremely well and much better IMHO. I think Don is da man and his posts get my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Saw a link to this on DT's Facebook page. Wasn't sure how to post the actual video, but this is hilarious! It's titled "When Good Forecasters Go Bad" http://www.xtranorma...800/weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wonder if JB thinks all the models today are suffering from major issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wonder if JB thinks all the models today are suffering from major issues? Don't know about that? But he thinks it still comes north quite a bit. Hope he's wrong!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Saw a link to this on DT's Facebook page. Wasn't sure how to post the actual video, but this is hilarious! It's titled "When Good Forecasters Go Bad" http://www.xtranorma...800/weatherbell Oh. My. God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Oh. My. God. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Oh. My. God. Unbelievable. Holy ****, pretty accurate but my god.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 JB is referencing the coldest air relative to normals in the Northern Hemisphere will be working into the Eastern US this weekend. Won't stay around long though as the SE Ridge is readying it's fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 funny, JB already talking about next winter being"snowier for much of nation" we have 8-10 months to wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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