POWERSTROKE Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 he said today most are down because of euro but shouldn't be. Mid month on looks good. Don't get excited about next weekend unless system slows down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 he said today most are down because of euro but shouldn't be. Mid month on looks good. Don't get excited about next weekend unless system slows down Robert thought it would be tough for next week to workout for the SE too. If next week is out than the SE is left with what 2 maybe 3 weeks outside of the mountains. I did see HPC where they said they didn't like the Euro after day 6 as it breaks down the west ridge to fast, if the Euro is right though and the ridge does break down and it takes a couple of weeks to build it back up then we are into March and winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Robert thought it would be tough for next week to workout for the SE too. If next week is out than the SE is left with what 2 maybe 3 weeks outside of the mountains. I did see HPC where they said they didn't like the Euro after day 6 as it breaks down the west ridge to fast, if the Euro is right though and the ridge does break down and it takes a couple of weeks to build it back up then we are into March and winter is over. But Robert and JB both said fun times ahead so I don't think we are no where near done yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Big Joe this morning says we are now on our last domino of winter. It's all come down to the cards lining up on the table now for this winter. So this is it guys, it is now or we wait until this October or early November for our first upslope snow of the 2012/2013 winter season to carry us into a hopeful winter storm in December 2012. Next winter certainly can't be a repeat of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 From JB--- for much of US if spring is around the corner.. its a long haul to the end of the block ( ripped off from the great Elliot Abrams) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 he said today that pattern is favoring March 1993. He did not mention super storm just said the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 From JB's twitter feed in the last 6 hours "Most places n of I-40 going to see enough snow to challenge the winter totals for normal in the next 3-4 weeks.Blocking on euro impressive" and "NAM is consistent with ideas I have. Snow is in everyones forecast now, unlike 3 days ago.The pattern is loaded for bear (polar)" I have looked at a lot of maps this morning, and the GFS super ensemble and the GGEM ensembles are the only things I see that looks good for possible cold. What Euro run or ensemble looks impressive for blocking? (Maybe reading into the Euro monthlies)?? I see mostly weak blocking and troughs dumping into the west on a lot of modeling. I know he's a professional, and I am not, but I just don't see it. What is he talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 From JB's twitter feed in the last 6 hours "Most places n of I-40 going to see enough snow to challenge the winter totals for normal in the next 3-4 weeks.Blocking on euro impressive" and "NAM is consistent with ideas I have. Snow is in everyones forecast now, unlike 3 days ago.The pattern is loaded for bear (polar)" I have looked at a lot of maps this morning, and the GFS super ensemble and the GGEM ensembles are the only things I see that looks good for possible cold. What Euro run or ensemble looks impressive for blocking? (Maybe reading into the Euro monthlies)?? I see mostly weak blocking and troughs dumping into the west on a lot of modeling. I know he's a professional, and I am not, but I just don't see it. What is he talking about? Hype machine in full effect. He needs to keep those subscriptions going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hype machine in full effect. He needs to keep those subscriptions going. Say what you want ever since third week of Jan he has been dead on. The valentine storm he said a week ago nothing for us. Said snow maybe in mountains. Today he said next 3-4 weeks does look active. Most have kept saying a torch coming he has said models wrong and week after week models have been wrong. Robert has said same thing about models missing temps. Winter is not over. Every body keeps saying it is and them like the last few days all are back into it. Every time a model changes its either the end of winter or we get excited again. So funny how people keep talking about the subscription like it is several thousand a year. Most spend more in coffee on a weekly basis than what it cost for his ideas. Let's wait until the next model run and the hyping will start on the here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Say what you want ever since third week of Jan he has been dead on. The valentine storm he said a week ago nothing for us. Said snow maybe in mountains. Today he said next 3-4 weeks does look active. Most have kept saying a torch coming he has said models wrong and week after week models have been wrong. Robert has said same thing about models missing temps. Winter is not over. Every body keeps saying it is and them like the last few days all are back into it. Every time a model changes its either the end of winter or we get excited again. So funny how people keep talking about the subscription like it is several thousand a year. Most spend more in coffee on a weekly basis than what it cost for his ideas. Let's wait until the next model run and the hyping will start on the here ok, the guy has made some really terrible calls this year and as recently as a week ago. But if you want to live in fantasy land I won't try and convince you otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 From JB's twitter feed in the last 6 hours "Most places n of I-40 going to see enough snow to challenge the winter totals for normal in the next 3-4 weeks.Blocking on euro impressive" and "NAM is consistent with ideas I have. Snow is in everyones forecast now, unlike 3 days ago.The pattern is loaded for bear (polar)" I have looked at a lot of maps this morning, and the GFS super ensemble and the GGEM ensembles are the only things I see that looks good for possible cold. What Euro run or ensemble looks impressive for blocking? (Maybe reading into the Euro monthlies)?? I see mostly weak blocking and troughs dumping into the west on a lot of modeling. I know he's a professional, and I am not, but I just don't see it. What is he talking about? Not to defend JB, but the height anomalies on the Euro ensembles have been showing higher heights over southern Greenland. I haven't looked at an Op model runs in a few days but have been peaking at the ensembles for blocking. We will not get snow without blocking this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 ok, the guy has made some really terrible calls this year and as recently as a week ago. But if you want to live in fantasy land I won't try and convince you otherwise. he has never yet said southeast will get snow. Everybody has missed this year. I just post what he says as there are more than you think on here that like to hear what he says. In January he said cold was coming back in february while most on this board follow the models minute by minute and said blow torch winter is over. I could careless if he is right or wrong just like all on this forum. He has opinions just like we all do. This year he has has been just as good as 95% on here. But he is good at seeing a pattern change. Even the best me on here said that. What is your track record this year? Can't wait until you get that red tag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Agree with Stroke. Thanks for posting his thoughts when you get a chance (what's his latest?). I heard he tweeted about I-40 north could end with near normal snowfall for the winter. Would be interesting if it happened. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Agree with Stroke. Thanks for posting his thoughts when you get a chance (what's his latest?). I heard he tweeted about I-40 north could end with near normal snowfall for the winter. Would be interesting if it happened. TW He did say that, He just didn't say which states? lol, I-40 long ole road and many states..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 He did say that, He just didn't say which states? lol, I-40 long ole road and many states..... Yes, and looking at some of the models in the 5-10 day range, it seems that the freezing/frozen line will be oriented east west. At this time it looks like it will be a bit north of I-40, but not too terribly far. Also looking at the gfs, it seems to want to produce a good system every few days coming out of the gulf or southern plains. All we need is some cold air. I wouldn't be surprised to see him right. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 +5 for Powerstroke I pay for more weather data sources than I should from several different sources. JB is the best for pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 he has never yet said southeast will get snow. Everybody has missed this year. I just post what he says as there are more than you think on here that like to hear what he says. In January he said cold was coming back in february while most on this board follow the models minute by minute and said blow torch winter is over. I could careless if he is right or wrong just like all on this forum. He has opinions just like we all do. This year he has has been just as good as 95% on here. But he is good at seeing a pattern change. Even the best me on here said that. What is your track record this year? Can't wait until you get that red tag I did fairly well for an amateur in what I thought would happen this year. Also if I ever get the time I'll return to school because meteorology is a field I've always wanted to get into. I can''t understand why you took my comments about JB so personally, it's really mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 I did fairly well for an amateur in what I thought would happen this year. Also if I ever get the time I'll return to school because meteorology is a field I've always wanted to get into. I can''t understand why you took my comments about JB so personally, it's really mind boggling. nothing personally here. I could careless what comments are made about JB I just said he is no different than anybody else. I never saw you predict this winter so I can't say, however I have notice your posts and you go a lot with model runs. Robert has said for years watch pattern not models so thats what I look for. You are pretty negative on a lot of other posts besides JB, but that's your right. Looks like I am not the only one who disagrees with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 JB likes what he sees with the pattern. Going to what he has said since end of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 JB likes what he sees with the pattern. Going to what he has said since end of January meaning she's just getting started...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 meaning she's just getting started...right? I believe Robert and JB are very similar. Winter far from over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Only two more weeks of Fab Feb. But hey that's plenty of time for a fluke storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We may have last half of Fab Feb. And March may have some surprises too! I like what I've been reading and watching this morning. :sled: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We may have last half of Fab Feb. And March may have some surprises too! I like what I've been reading and watching this morning. :sled: What did he say this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 What did he say this morning? Big Frosty can't get on his phone. He said March looks cold and stormy. 500mb pattern looks good with blocking. He also thinks a big storm running up east coast Sun-Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Everyone should follow the REAL JB... https://twitter.com/#!/LilJoeBastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Everyone should follow the REAL JB... https://twitter.com/.../LilJoeBastardi lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 JB says GFS too far south. Euro will win out as storm will run from TX thru tenn vally to northeast. Stretching south into Carolinas is too far south on this storm. He said models will show this once they get better handle of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 JB tweet: "Why my concerns about MJO phases? 2 and 3 in February and March are the US wheelhouse of winter." He also mentions despite the -AO we've had, the MJO phases of 4 and 5 trumped the oscillation, so his thinking is the MJO will trump it again late Feb into March for a colder pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 He also says on twitter that the Euro is just wobbling and that the Apps track will hold true. I just don't get his logic sometimes. Every model is saying no, so one model says yes. He says go with that one. The model that said yes says no, but now it's wrong even though it was correct last night but no other models really back it up. Just confusing sometimes...at least open up to the possibility this might be a southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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