Met1985 Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 funny, JB already talking about next winter being"snowier for much of nation" we have 8-10 months to wait and see Lo it can't get much worse than what we had which pretty much was nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 funny, JB already talking about next winter being"snowier for much of nation" we have 8-10 months to wait and see I believe he's basing this on the ENSO phase going into a Neutral-Weak Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 I believe he's basing this on the ENSO phase going into a Neutral-Weak Nino. I don't know. I was just posting what he said. I do know he said in 2010 that he didnt think we would have much in 2011 and he was right. However he kept changing his mind all through this past winter. If he kept what he originally said he would have had a great forecast. he also said in 2010 that starting 2012 through 2016 we should get snows like the old days??? we shall see. I do know that one of our famous red taggers agrees pretty much with him. Who knows right now, im ready for warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 I don't think it is a given that next winter is Nino or neutral. Could easily be a third staight La Nina, and we now know what that means. If it is a weak Nina, that's not always bad IMO. However, raging Ninos are terrible in TN. I do think when this Nina finally breaks that the next winter will be very good. At worst, we are eighteen months from this cycle ending. What I hate is the Nina summers. Last summer was almost unbearable. Nino summers are great here. Edit: Latest reports do look more and more like a weak Nino next winter. Some models do show a dip towards Nina, but the average is in positive territory. That would be good news for summer and winter if it holds. Link (Go to pg 28, takes about 10 seconds to load on high speed) Edit #2: Here is the CPC site. What is interesting is that the warm anomalies are almost purely on the surface. There is cold water just below it. I'm wondering if this could be a false signal - that's the only pause I have at this point. But trust me, I'm no expert... Link (Go to T-depth anomalies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 I don't think it is a given that next winter is Nino or neutral. Could easily be a third staight La Nina, and we now know what that means. If it is a weak Nina, that's not always bad IMO. However, raging Ninos are terrible in TN. I do think when this Nina finally breaks that the next winter will be very good. At worst, we are eighteen months from this cycle ending. What I hate is the Nina summers. Last summer was almost unbearable. Nino summers are great here. Edit: Latest reports do look more and more like a weak Nino next winter. Some models do show a dip towards Nina, but the average is in positive territory. That would be good news for summer and winter if it holds. Link (Go to pg 28, takes about 10 seconds to load on high speed) Edit #2: Here is the CPC site. What is interesting is that the warm anomalies are almost purely on the surface. There is cold water just below it. I'm wondering if this could be a false signal - that's the only pause I have at this point. But trust me, I'm no expert... Link (Go to T-depth anomalies) I would be happy with either a weak Nino or weak Nina; seems that if either are average or strong, the Nashville area really does poorly in the seasonal snowfall department; anyone know roughly when we will know with relative assurance that we will see either one or the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Saw a link to this on DT's Facebook page. Wasn't sure how to post the actual video, but this is hilarious! It's titled "When Good Forecasters Go Bad" http://www.xtranorma...800/weatherbell I still can't stop laughing at this video. The link is broken, does anyone have a good link to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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