Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

JB's Weather Discussion


POWERSTROKE

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 275
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I believe he's basing this on the ENSO phase going into a Neutral-Weak Nino.

I don't know. I was just posting what he said. I do know he said in 2010 that he didnt think we would have much in 2011 and he was right. However he kept changing his mind all through this past winter. If he kept what he originally said he would have had a great forecast. he also said in 2010 that starting 2012 through 2016 we should get snows like the old days??? we shall see. I do know that one of our famous red taggers agrees pretty much with him. Who knows right now, im ready for warm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think it is a given that next winter is Nino or neutral. Could easily be a third staight La Nina, and we now know what that means. If it is a weak Nina, that's not always bad IMO. However, raging Ninos are terrible in TN. I do think when this Nina finally breaks that the next winter will be very good. At worst, we are eighteen months from this cycle ending. What I hate is the Nina summers. Last summer was almost unbearable. Nino summers are great here.

Edit: Latest reports do look more and more like a weak Nino next winter. Some models do show a dip towards Nina, but the average is in positive territory. That would be good news for summer and winter if it holds.

Link (Go to pg 28, takes about 10 seconds to load on high speed)

Edit #2: Here is the CPC site. What is interesting is that the warm anomalies are almost purely on the surface. There is cold water just below it. I'm wondering if this could be a false signal - that's the only pause I have at this point. But trust me, I'm no expert...

Link (Go to T-depth anomalies)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think it is a given that next winter is Nino or neutral. Could easily be a third staight La Nina, and we now know what that means. If it is a weak Nina, that's not always bad IMO. However, raging Ninos are terrible in TN. I do think when this Nina finally breaks that the next winter will be very good. At worst, we are eighteen months from this cycle ending. What I hate is the Nina summers. Last summer was almost unbearable. Nino summers are great here.

Edit: Latest reports do look more and more like a weak Nino next winter. Some models do show a dip towards Nina, but the average is in positive territory. That would be good news for summer and winter if it holds.

Link (Go to pg 28, takes about 10 seconds to load on high speed)

Edit #2: Here is the CPC site. What is interesting is that the warm anomalies are almost purely on the surface. There is cold water just below it. I'm wondering if this could be a false signal - that's the only pause I have at this point. But trust me, I'm no expert...

Link (Go to T-depth anomalies)

I would be happy with either a weak Nino or weak Nina; seems that if either are average or strong, the Nashville area really does poorly in the seasonal snowfall department; anyone know roughly when we will know with relative assurance that we will see either one or the other?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 8 months later...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...