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Friday's Storm Prediction

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

Make your call on accums--main event only  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. 4" or more

    • Powderfreak
      7
    • Dendrite
      6
    • Dryslot
      2
    • Eric
      1
    • Socks
      4
    • MPM
      7
    • Skimrg
      17
    • hubdave
      10
    • will
      6
    • scott (coastal)
      0
    • The Good Reverand
      0
    • Ginx
      0
    • Bob
      0
    • Phil
      0
    • Litchfield Libations
      0

  2. 2. 3"

  3. 3. 1-2"

  4. 4. 1"

  5. 5. 0----skunked


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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I hope you are right...I think I'd put Hubbdave as more likely than me right now. I think I may fall short of 4"...but its certainly possible I hit it.

Ha yeah I actually like this type of poll... I tried to actually think about it though I put Hubbdave at 3". I'm just going with that latitude of skiMRG to ORH having the best shot at the highest amounts. 0z GFS (which did trend SE on the whole) looks right to me. I'm just feeling that solution.

Gave myself 1-2" as it won't be impressive at all but I think we see some hang-back moisture just continue to snow for a long duration... like 2-5sm vis type stuff.

One other comment is I don't think Ginx gets totally skunked but may be hard pressed to measure a full inch. I'd go coating.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Ha yeah I actually like this type of poll... I tried to actually think about it though I put Hubbdave at 3". I'm just going with that latitude of skiMRG to ORH having the best shot at the highest amounts. 0z GFS (which did trend SE on the whole) looks right to me. I'm just feeling that solution.

Gave myself 1-2" as it won't be impressive at all but I think we see some hang-back moisture just continue to snow for a long duration... like 2-5sm vis type stuff.

I actually gave you 4" because I thought you would do well even on the weenie snow behind the system to rack up the fluff stuff. But I'm not sure what you are using as a measuring spot...certainly the mountain will get it...but if its your own backyard down at 800-something feet, then I'd probably say less than 4"...but could still see you doing well there with residual snow and colder temps.

The jackpot is probably going to be in a narrow zone north of the where the mix line makes its furthest north push...so in that sense, ORH might be a good spot as well as skiMRG...but I think we aren't done yet with this system tricking us...it might still tick north a shade. As I always say in SWFEs...I'm more worried about sleet than a whiff to the south. But I should probably survive this one without any meaningful pingers or rain/mix.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I actually gave you 4" because I thought you would do well even on the weenie snow behind the system to rack up the fluff stuff. But I'm not sure what you are using as a measuring spot...certainly the mountain will get it...but if its your own backyard down at 800-something feet, then I'd probably say less than 4"...but could still see you doing well there with residual snow and colder temps.

The jackpot is probably going to be in a narrow zone north of the where the mix line makes its furthest north push...so in that sense, ORH might be a good spot as well as skiMRG...but I think we aren't done yet with this system tricking us...it might still tick north a shade. As I always say in SWFEs...I'm more worried about sleet than a whiff to the south. But I should probably survive this one without any meaningful pingers or rain/mix.

That's what I was thinking... I envision that being south of the Pike right near Tolland. There's no real reason for why I think that except I do think this verifies colder than the GFS but not as extreme as the NAM. I have noticed that up this way we have been running colder on modeled over the past few days at least in the boundary layer. Out of habit I watch the mountain temperatures constantly and consider the 1,500ft, 2,500ft, 4,000ft weather stations to be a fair sample of the thermal profile... it has been a bit colder than modeled from 24+ hours out (I I know it doesn't really work like that (ie it being cold day 1 does not mean we are cold on day 2) but I'm optimistic this bucks our warm pattern and verifies a little cooler for some folks down in SNE. And I don't think that necessarily means it screws anyone by being colder (ie MPM QPF concerns)... better ratios and some deformation bands (albeit weak) should bring some nice light snows north.

Since CT_Blizz is always on the snow/sleet line, I think he is very, very close if not pinging for a scary few minutes or so (enough to cost him an inch to ORH).. but in the end it is still quite snowy down in Tolland, but the jackpot stripe is just a little bit further north.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Ha yeah I actually like this type of poll... I tried to actually think about it though I put Hubbdave at 3". I'm just going with that latitude of skiMRG to ORH having the best shot at the highest amounts. 0z GFS (which did trend SE on the whole) looks right to me. I'm just feeling that solution.

Gave myself 1-2" as it won't be impressive at all but I think we see some hang-back moisture just continue to snow for a long duration... like 2-5sm vis type stuff.

One other comment is I don't think Ginx gets totally skunked but may be hard pressed to measure a full inch. I'd go coating.

Yea that's my thoughts, hope for better.

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