bluewave Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It looks like we'll see strong WAA out ahead of the surface low and cold front later today. The models may be somewhat underestimating the high temperatures ahead of the front. The potential is there for high temperatures to rise to around 60 degrees at places like Newark. The surge of warm air will arrive with a strong subtropical jet streak. While it looks like if any storms can form, they will be elevated in nature with steep mid level lapse rates over the region. There is the possibility that some areas could see some surfaced based pockets of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nice post. It's been pretty mundane so far but it will be interesting to see if we can get some elevated convection over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nice post. It's been pretty mundane so far but it will be interesting to see if we can get some elevated convection over the next few hours. Thanks. Yeah, we'll see if we can get some development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 We'll see if the convection back over PA can hold together tonight ahead of the cold front. The vort coming in right behind actually gets a bit stronger as it moves slightly north of due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Very narrow line approaching....Upton just says light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Is it really Dec. 21st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 These storms look better than 90% of the junk earthlight stayed up to 4am tracking on the SPC WRF over the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 These storms look better than 90% of the junk earthlight stayed up to 4am tracking on the SPC WRF over the summer Was just going to say - we couldn't manage a squall line the whole summer yet we get our wish on the winter solstice. Mother nature can be a sick twisted mama sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Was just going to say - we couldn't manage a squall line the whole summer yet we get our wish on the winter solstice. Mother nature can be a sick twisted mama sometimes. Forcing, forcing, forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Back from Florida and hoping we have something worthwhile to track soon. Winds gusting here ahead of storms, the last few minutes. Good to be back north for Christmas, even though its quite warm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What is going on, my temp just shot up to 61 degrees! 10pm 12/21........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This should be fun as the storms come through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like we got about 5 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This should be fun as the storms come through did your spc wrf show this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Squall Line just went over my area. LOTS of wind and heavy rain. Enjoy the storm you guys!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Wow. After an entire summer of storms dying before they hit the coast, we get this in december. The line is holding up, should get gusty here in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 decent thunder here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 wow man... i took my dog out.. major lightning strike followed by a tremendous boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 wow man... i took my dog out.. major lightning strike followed by a tremendous boom! my bedroom floor is now soaked. there are christmas decorations littering the lawns already lol.....had a decent gust a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 looks like the line is bowing out over the hudson valley, about to nail danbury lol best severe of 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Sorry Upton, you dropped the ball on this one. Not even a special weather statement?? Just had some lightning and at least a 45 mph wind gust go through Meanwhile from Mt Holly BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ- HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-SOMERSET NJ- WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ- 954 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011 ...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT MORRIS...HUNTERDON... SOMERSET...CAMDEN...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...DELAWARE...PHILADELPHIA... CHESTER...MONTGOMERY...BUCKS...MONMOUTH...OCEAN AND BURLINGTON COUNTIES... AT 948 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF PATERSON TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOMERVILLE TO 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRENTON TO 17 MILES WEST OF WEST CHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTH TWO THIRDS OF NEW JERSEY AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON TO NEW BRUNSWICK BY 1045 PM. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. THE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR SKILLMAN...BELLE MEAD...WEST NORRITON... SPRING HOUSE AROUND 1000 PM...PAOLI...WEST GOSHEN...WEST CHESTER... WARMINSTER HEIGHTS AROUND 1005 PM...WESTTOWN AND CHEYNEY AROUND 1010 PM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 my bedroom floor is now soaked. there are christmas decorations littering the lawns already lol.....had a decent gust a few minutes ago. wow.. lol I ran in and out really fast..... but I'm enjoying the warm surge of air.. nothing like a brisk south westerly flow with temps in the upper 50's in late December.. I love nights like this where you don't need a jacket to go outside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 congrats bluewave, you nailed this. Where are you during the summer when people are trying to forecast severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Had a heavy downpour for about 5 minutes with wind gusts. Thats it ...in and out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 KMMU reported a wind gust to 46 mph as the storms moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 still thundering a bit here.. now my dog is scared s**t.... it's bad enough I don't get sleep from my son getting up at 4AM.. now my dog isn't gonna let me sleep tonight.... just perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 +TSRA 59/58 Extremely windy, esp off the deck, just had several claps of thunder. Is it the Winter Solstice? Sry but my current location is Dobbs Ferry NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 gust only 23 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 sky is completly cloud free except for the clouds now advancing from the NW, amazing sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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