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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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Is this gonna start as rain and flip to snow..or start as a mix?

It probably depends where you are...the further south its more likely to start as rain or mix as the cold air is just getting there as the precip comes in. Further north it might just start as straight snow in the higher spots with a lot of dry air in the BL and MLs allowing for evap cooling.

A 30 mile shift could be a big deal though...esp south of the pike...so we'll have to watch it.

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I think most of us are, Scott, as evidenced by the 'event thread'. Meager accumulations for the vast majority of us, but enough to give most a Christmas look. Very important. :)

Well you are virtually a lock, but it still looks kind of walking the line south of the Pike and up towards me. I would like to see how 12z roles in.

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Okay, 2-3" might categorize as more than "meager". But my point was to reenforce the minor nature of this.

There's a shot at someone getting a 4 or 5 spot out of this...everything would have to go right, but its certainly possible. All guidance has really beefed up the qpf and dynamics as the system is more robust than previously progged.

But either way, an advisory event is still pretty solid should someone end up with that...especially given how bad the pattern has been.

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There's a shot at someone getting a 4 or 5 spot out of this...everything would have to go right, but its certainly possible. All guidance has really beefed up the qpf and dynamics as the system is more robust than previously progged.

But either way, an advisory event is still pretty solid should someone end up with that...especially given how bad the pattern has been.

During the dark times of Kevin's fall into the abyss, I had posted he should avoid focusing on pattern and just look at the opportunity in a specific event. Patterns can be awesome and things not materialize. Meanwhile, unlikely things can happen. Just look at October.

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I still think we'll have to watch the inverted trough potential...there's actually a few possibilities...the NAM is showing very good RH even up through 700mb hanging back all day on the 23rd and overnight into the 24th before drying a bit...there could be some lingering steady light snow in eastern areas from that...before a break and then maybe more enhancement as that s/w comes in from the west later on Xmas eve.

The other scenario is the s/w from the west clears out the earlier stuff sooner and then tries to re-enhance stuff on Xmas eve...but the placement of that feature would mean a lot in terms of where any stead stuff sets up. The 850s behind the initial stuff on the 23rd are like -8C to -10C so i think snow growth could occur even in the relative low levels.

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I still think we'll have to watch the inverted trough potential...there's actually a few possibilities...the NAM is showing very good RH even up through 700mb hanging back all day on the 23rd and overnight into the 24th before drying a bit...there could be some lingering steady light snow in eastern areas from that...before a break and then maybe more enhancement as that s/w comes in from the west later on Xmas eve.

The other scenario is the s/w from the west clears out the earlier stuff sooner and then tries to re-enhance stuff on Xmas eve...but the placement of that feature would mean a lot in terms of where any stead stuff sets up. The 850s behind the initial stuff on the 23rd are like -8C to -10C so i think snow growth could occur even in the relative low levels.

Happy to see that overall signal hanging on.

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I still think we'll have to watch the inverted trough potential...there's actually a few possibilities...the NAM is showing very good RH even up through 700mb hanging back all day on the 23rd and overnight into the 24th before drying a bit...there could be some lingering steady light snow in eastern areas from that...before a break and then maybe more enhancement as that s/w comes in from the west later on Xmas eve.

The other scenario is the s/w from the west clears out the earlier stuff sooner and then tries to re-enhance stuff on Xmas eve...but the placement of that feature would mean a lot in terms of where any stead stuff sets up. The 850s behind the initial stuff on the 23rd are like -8C to -10C so i think snow growth could occur even in the relative low levels.

The GFS and NAM like the inv trough potential, and the euro is that scenario that has a little -SN on Saturday. You can see how the GFS and NAM like the s/w coming into NY state on the 24th, but the euro kind of shears it out.

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The NWS is thinking 1-2" thurs night for NW interior. I think it's too early to be talking numbers like that in an official manner.

Does that appear in a forecast or just an AFD? I think I saw it in the AFD. I think they're concerned about the dryer air to the north eating up the northern edge of the precip shield. My qpf fetish aside, that's been my concern on this at least as early as yesterday morning. Seeing the northern bumps had assuaged some of my concern with that, but the AFD had those concerns come roaring back.

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Does that appear in a forecast or just an AFD? I think I saw it in the AFD. I think they're concerned about the dryer air to the north eating up the northern edge of the precip shield. My qpf fetish aside, that's been my concern on this at least as early as yesterday morning. Seeing the northern bumps had assuaged some of my concern with that, but the AFD had those concerns come roaring back.

You are a treat...lol.

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You are a treat...lol.

LOL. Is that so off the wall? Since BOX is throwing it out there in the AFD, I don't think I'm totally out of line with that. I'm totally psyched that your and others' opinions on this are different.

I'm kinda proud of myself that my concern was considered in the AFD. As a novice, it's nice to see that. And I hope I--and BOX--are wrong and I score with a solid event.

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LOL. Is that so off the wall? Since BOX is throwing it out there in the AFD, I don't think I'm totally out of line with that. I'm totally psyched that your and others' opinions on this are different.

I'm kinda proud of myself that my concern was considered in the AFD. As a novice, it's nice to see that. And I hope I--and BOX--are wrong and I score with a solid event.

Well the whole thermal gradient will be compressing south, so I suppose there is a small chance of that happening, but I really wouldn't worry about that...jmho.

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Kevin, I just think you are really on the edge of getting maybe an inch or 3 inches. But, you'll be happy either way. I think there are questions till in CT so I'm not that excited yet.

Could be..but with the way the NAM is trending colder and sensing the south push of the cold air..I think by the end of this it snows to the coast to stick. This seems more likely to shift south than north

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