ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well I"m out, not staying up for Euro tonight. I'll be really interested to see what it has for the Xmas storm with the GFS insisting on nothing. Hopefully we keep Friday morning looking decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM is in pretty decent agreement with most guidance. It was a bit colder this run but its not that different from the Euro and its ensembles or the SREF. True but that also means it's in agreement with the old guidance...I'd think the new RGEM is in the middle between the two with maybe a lean NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Same here. Hopefully the euro looks decent for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 mm, as one would expect. The native resolution of each dictates a tighter gradient in the NAM. I personally don't have a problem with this run tonight and I think folks are going to wind up with advisory accumulating snow at a minimum from the overnight Thur into Fri morning system. Weaker S/W than predecessor but superior mechanics for having steeper baroclinicity to work with. The rest is up to critical thickness depths supporting snow. I expect: A nw trend in the NAM that sends folks into a warm panic, but collapses back to this idea ...over the next 36 hours of runs. I agree with this assessment. Since we are relying on gradient induced "fun" here, there will likely be a few wild swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well I"m out, not staying up for Euro tonight. I'll be really interested to see what it has for the Xmas storm with the GFS insisting on nothing. Hopefully we keep Friday morning looking decent. I wouldn't worry about the Xmas storm... you look to get a solid Advisory level snowfall on Friday. I'd really like to be in ORH for that one...flirting with trouble but on just the right side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Why? Because the NAM is tracking further west than the 12z Euro and 0z RGEM/GFS as noted by the NCEP Model Diagnostic? It's west of everything else. Doesn't make it wrong but until the 0z Euro follows suit I think it's probably too aggressive in that regard. We can add the 0z RGEM and 0z GFS to the camps that aren't as far to the west. "...WAVE SHARPENING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF DAY 2... THE NAM TRACKS THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE 12Z/20 ECMWF INTO DAY 3." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Crazy uncle says eat now messenger.....idea of continuous snows once the main Friday system goes by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Because the NAM is tracking further west than the 12z Euro and 0z RGEM/GFS as noted by the NCEP Model Diagnostic? It's west of everything else. Doesn't make it wrong but until the 0z Euro follows suit I think it's probably too aggressive in that regard. We can add the 0z RGEM and 0z GFS to the camps that aren't as far to the west. "...WAVE SHARPENING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF DAY 2... THE NAM TRACKS THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE 12Z/20 ECMWF INTO DAY 3." Yes, but you are assuming that is wrong - it seems. We need to look at how the NAM could be right just as much as why it could be wrong. It's west for good reason - I explained why. Meteorology of the event balanced against a finite grid processing offers a nod toward the NAM here. Fyi, the GFS is very similar for overnight Thur into Friday on the 00z run. So the farther west than other models isn't so at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 By 60 GFS is on its own with the speed of the system. GGEM and NAM aren't that far apart, NAM colder. Euro...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Crazy uncle says eat now messenger.....idea of continuous snows once the main Friday system goes by... 39 days to 1. And that's still a big if. And BTW, what do the clown maps show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 39 days to 1. And that's still a big if. The Cardinals got into the post season on the last day of the regular season. They won the WS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 By 60 GFS is on its own with the speed of the system. GGEM and NAM aren't that far apart, NAM colder. Euro...! Slightly... but the running bias of progressivity corrects toward the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I definitely like the idea of prolonged -SN/--SN after the system moves through... weak deformation hangs over NNE with some orographic flow as the H85 -10C isotherm drops south. I think Dendrite mentioned it earlier but that reeks of low level produced sparking dust across a wide area. Weak inverted troughiness keeps the light snow going right to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 39 days to 1. And that's still a big if. And BTW, what do the clown maps show? The clown maps show you lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 There are certain situations in which the NAM should be favored....even over the EURO. Case en point was the blizzard last season....the EURO was relatively unimpressive and the NAM screamed HECS....the rest is history. Gotta be careful with these tight little, dynamic guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm out. Hoping for some snow by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The clown maps show you lose. It has to snow by 12:01am on Xmas correct? 1" OTG at Logan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It has to snow by 12:01am on Xmas correct? 1" OTG at Logan? By midnight 12/25. That is my understanding. 1 inch measured at BOS whether or not it washes away. Iow....official inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 By midnight 12/25. That is my understanding. 1 inch measured at BOS whether or not it washes away. Iow....official inch On 11/27 it was 12/10...I'll have to go back and look but you said this...I think we agreed to move it back at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 By midnight 12/25. That is my understanding. 1 inch measured at BOS whether or not it washes away. Iow....official inch Very interesting bet... could see it going either way. This makes what happens in BOS much more interesting to me, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like we must have pushed it back because at one point we were haggling over 12/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 On 11/27 it was 12/10...I'll have to go back and look but you said this...I think we agreed to move it back at one point. No. You offered a bet by 12/10 after I trilled you with the quoted post but I declined understanding it was not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like we must have pushed it back because at one point we were haggling over 12/10 Yes...see my response to the quoted post...it was no....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yes...see my response to the quoted post...it was no....lol LOL I posted a picture of a chicken you are right I read down on this thread. It's funny to go back and read what we all thought around 11/27 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30258-late-novemberearly-december-disco-on-the-upcoming-pattern/ BTW, I took it as by 12:01am.... by 12/25 to me means by the time 12/25 is here otherwise it'd have been 12/26. We may have to go to an independent arbiter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL I posted a picture of a chicken you are right I read down on this thread. It's funny to go back and read what we all thought around 11/27 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30258-late-novemberearly-december-disco-on-the-upcoming-pattern/ BTW, I took it as by 12:01am.... by 12/25 to me means by the time 12/25 is here otherwise it'd have been 12/26. We may have to go to an independent arbiter We may need arbitration. To me, by said date means by midnight that day. Eg: if I say snow otg by 1/1, it would be by midnight 1/1. Anyone else want to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 00z Euro is a lot more amplified than 12z, but colder in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro looks very similar to the GFS at 60 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro looks very similar to the GFS at 60 hr 2m is a bit colder than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Earthlights flying birds signature always brings hope for snow ... Is there a chance of the rain/snow line slipping down to the NYC/LI area during the 12/23 event ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.