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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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mm, as one would expect. The native resolution of each dictates a tighter gradient in the NAM.

I personally don't have a problem with this run tonight and I think folks are going to wind up with advisory accumulating snow at a minimum from the overnight Thur into Fri morning system.

Weaker S/W than predecessor but superior mechanics for having steeper baroclinicity to work with. The rest is up to critical thickness depths supporting snow.

I expect: A nw trend in the NAM that sends folks into a warm panic, but collapses back to this idea ...over the next 36 hours of runs.

I agree with this assessment. Since we are relying on gradient induced "fun" here, there will likely be a few wild swings.

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Well I"m out, not staying up for Euro tonight. I'll be really interested to see what it has for the Xmas storm with the GFS insisting on nothing.

Hopefully we keep Friday morning looking decent.

I wouldn't worry about the Xmas storm... you look to get a solid Advisory level snowfall on Friday. I'd really like to be in ORH for that one...flirting with trouble but on just the right side ;)

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Why?

Because the NAM is tracking further west than the 12z Euro and 0z RGEM/GFS as noted by the NCEP Model Diagnostic?

It's west of everything else. Doesn't make it wrong but until the 0z Euro follows suit I think it's probably too aggressive in that regard. We can add the 0z RGEM and 0z GFS to the camps that aren't as far to the west.

"...WAVE SHARPENING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START

OF DAY 2...

THE NAM TRACKS THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE 12Z/20 ECMWF

INTO DAY 3."

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Because the NAM is tracking further west than the 12z Euro and 0z RGEM/GFS as noted by the NCEP Model Diagnostic?

It's west of everything else. Doesn't make it wrong but until the 0z Euro follows suit I think it's probably too aggressive in that regard. We can add the 0z RGEM and 0z GFS to the camps that aren't as far to the west.

"...WAVE SHARPENING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START

OF DAY 2...

THE NAM TRACKS THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE 12Z/20 ECMWF

INTO DAY 3."

Yes, but you are assuming that is wrong - it seems. We need to look at how the NAM could be right just as much as why it could be wrong.

It's west for good reason - I explained why. Meteorology of the event balanced against a finite grid processing offers a nod toward the NAM here.

Fyi, the GFS is very similar for overnight Thur into Friday on the 00z run. So the farther west than other models isn't so at the moment.

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I definitely like the idea of prolonged -SN/--SN after the system moves through... weak deformation hangs over NNE with some orographic flow as the H85 -10C isotherm drops south. I think Dendrite mentioned it earlier but that reeks of low level produced sparking dust across a wide area. Weak inverted troughiness keeps the light snow going right to the coast.

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Yes...see my response to the quoted post...it was no....lol

LOL I posted a picture of a chicken you are right I read down on this thread. It's funny to go back and read what we all thought around 11/27 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30258-late-novemberearly-december-disco-on-the-upcoming-pattern/

BTW, I took it as by 12:01am.... by 12/25 to me means by the time 12/25 is here otherwise it'd have been 12/26. We may have to go to an independent arbiter :)

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LOL I posted a picture of a chicken you are right I read down on this thread. It's funny to go back and read what we all thought around 11/27 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30258-late-novemberearly-december-disco-on-the-upcoming-pattern/

BTW, I took it as by 12:01am.... by 12/25 to me means by the time 12/25 is here otherwise it'd have been 12/26. We may have to go to an independent arbiter

We may need arbitration. To me, by said date means by midnight that day. Eg: if I say snow otg by 1/1, it would be by midnight 1/1. Anyone else want to chime in?

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