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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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It has a limit because its getting sheared by the confluence between the SE ridge and the shortwave to the northwest over the lakes. It could keep inching more robust but I don't think its going to be tracking overhead or anything.

Right I agree but for most in SNE it won't matter. I'll be interested to see what future runs show but compared to the 12z by 57 this is a major torch. Again comparing major run to major run. That's a BIG jump NW.

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Everyone don't forget to move over to the other thread when you post what the gfs has for the Sunday storm ;)

Yes, I would gladly like to leave any discussion about whatever strung out piece of junk the GFS has for Xmas away from this discussion.

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Right I agree but for most in SNE it won't matter. I'll be interested to see what future runs show but compared to the 12z by 57 this is a major torch. Again comparing major run to major run. That's a BIG jump NW.

This will either snow, or not precip at all for being too far SE - save for being left in a saturable ENE wind under post inversion -under the radar snow grains/ -S and flurries.

This NAM solution looks okay minus nit picking pettiness.

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Heck of a NORLUN just offshore.

The inverted trough stuff could be interesting to follow...it might just be a few flurries but there's times where models totally blow it too like on 12/20/08...2-4 inches of fluff happened when basically nothing was forecast by guidance.

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My eyes lit up when I saw that.

The inverted trough stuff could be interesting to follow...it might just be a few flurries but there's times where models totally blow it too like on 12/20/08...2-4 inches of fluff happened when basically nothing was forecast by guidance.

Check out that vortmax..really dove south big time on this run.

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This will either snow, or not precip at all for being too far SE - save for being left in a saturable ENE wind under post inversion -under the radar snow grains/ -S and flurries.

This NAM solution looks okay minus nit picking pettiness.

NAM outside of 48 hours...may look okay but not likely to be right.

Heck of a NORLUN just offshore.

Wrong thread, please hit the back button, find the appropriate thread, hit next until you get to the end, type this message and submit. It's easy and it keeps everyone happy aside of the 20-30 of us trying to use the forums.

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There are two major differences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS is faster and doesn't tighten the gradient up as much as the NAM. However, they both indicate the potential for a tightening gradients because of the UVM/ frontogenesis. So, this could be a case of the NAM seeing the gradient potential.

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There are two major differences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS is faster and doesn't tighten the gradient up as much as the NAM. However, they both indicate the potential for a tightening gradients because of the UVM/ frontogenesis. So, this could be a case of the NAM seeing the gradient potential.

Yeah it defintely is hinting on that and the dynamic cooling. I guess the concern is more for how far north it goes. There is room for that in the higher elevations of central/wrn mass and points north, but for the lower elevations and south of the Pike..I don't think there is a lot of room here.

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Nope...you're wrong...messenger is right, it can't and won't snow. The gfs is 100% right.

(Trying to see what its like to post like Kev :P)

It could easily still trend to crap...I wouldn't say more than 1-3" at this point...mainly for the elevated interior...but we'll have to see if we can get the colder type omega-bomb solution which would give snow right into Boston.

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There are two major differences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS is faster and doesn't tighten the gradient up as much as the NAM. However, they both indicate the potential for a tightening gradients because of the UVM/ frontogenesis. So, this could be a case of the NAM seeing the gradient potential.

mm, as one would expect. The native resolution of each dictates a tighter gradient in the NAM.

I personally don't have a problem with this run tonight and I think folks are going to wind up with advisory accumulating snow at a minimum from the overnight Thur into Fri morning system.

Weaker S/W than predecessor but superior mechanics for having steeper baroclinicity to work with. The rest is up to critical thickness depths supporting snow.

I expect: A nw trend in the NAM that sends folks into a warm panic, but collapses back to this idea ...over the next 36 hours of runs.

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mm, as one would expect. The native resolution of each dictates a tighter gradient in the NAM.

I personally don't have a problem with this run tonight and I think folks are going to wind up with advisory accumulating snow at a minimum from the overnight Thur into Fri morning system.

Weaker S/W than predecessor but superior mechanics for having steeper baroclinicity to work with. The rest is up to critical thickness depths supporting snow.

I expect: A nw trend in the NAM that sends folks into a warm panic, but collapses back to this idea ...over the next 36 hours of runs.

:o :o

and Will...yeah I'm not expecting much but hoping everything can go right to give me a few to 3 inches here.

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