weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 gfs not buying what the nam is selling. It would still snow, but if the gfs was right accumulations >1" would be limited to elevations I would think...at least south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It has a limit because its getting sheared by the confluence between the SE ridge and the shortwave to the northwest over the lakes. It could keep inching more robust but I don't think its going to be tracking overhead or anything. Right I agree but for most in SNE it won't matter. I'll be interested to see what future runs show but compared to the 12z by 57 this is a major torch. Again comparing major run to major run. That's a BIG jump NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like it would be a decent hit from Will and esp just to the north of him, based on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like it would be a decent hit from Will and esp just to the north of him, based on soundings. Is it warmer than the 18z? Lots of mood flakes post rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Everyone don't forget to move over to the other thread when you post what the gfs has for the Sunday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Notable changes on the GFS after Friday. It's much stronger with the s/w diving south into the GL Saturday. Maybe better for mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It has a limit because its getting sheared by the confluence between the SE ridge and the shortwave to the northwest over the lakes. It could keep inching more robust but I don't think its going to be tracking overhead or anything. Shortwave is further south then @ 18z as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 How many times have I seen this play? I hope this act is different for my friends to my north but something tells me this is a berks and greens jackpot in the end with little if anything outside of that area as far as accumulations. Hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It actually looks like rain for Kevin on that run. Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Is it warmer than the 18z? Lots of mood flakes post rain though. Yeah a little, but beefier as well. I would think if the NAM has that solution, it would be a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Everyone don't forget to move over to the other thread when you post what the gfs has for the Sunday storm Yes, I would gladly like to leave any discussion about whatever strung out piece of junk the GFS has for Xmas away from this discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Right I agree but for most in SNE it won't matter. I'll be interested to see what future runs show but compared to the 12z by 57 this is a major torch. Again comparing major run to major run. That's a BIG jump NW. This will either snow, or not precip at all for being too far SE - save for being left in a saturable ENE wind under post inversion -under the radar snow grains/ -S and flurries. This NAM solution looks okay minus nit picking pettiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yes, I would gladly like to leave any discussion about whatever strung out piece of junk the GFS has for Xmas away from this discussion. lol...hey you know in about 5 minutes there was going to be a bunch of posts about that in this thread since that's where everyone is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Heck of a NORLUN just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Heck of a NORLUN just offshore. My eyes lit up when I saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Heck of a NORLUN just offshore. The inverted trough stuff could be interesting to follow...it might just be a few flurries but there's times where models totally blow it too like on 12/20/08...2-4 inches of fluff happened when basically nothing was forecast by guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 My eyes lit up when I saw that. The inverted trough stuff could be interesting to follow...it might just be a few flurries but there's times where models totally blow it too like on 12/20/08...2-4 inches of fluff happened when basically nothing was forecast by guidance. Check out that vortmax..really dove south big time on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This will either snow, or not precip at all for being too far SE - save for being left in a saturable ENE wind under post inversion -under the radar snow grains/ -S and flurries. This NAM solution looks okay minus nit picking pettiness. NAM outside of 48 hours...may look okay but not likely to be right. Heck of a NORLUN just offshore. Wrong thread, please hit the back button, find the appropriate thread, hit next until you get to the end, type this message and submit. It's easy and it keeps everyone happy aside of the 20-30 of us trying to use the forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 There are two major differences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS is faster and doesn't tighten the gradient up as much as the NAM. However, they both indicate the potential for a tightening gradients because of the UVM/ frontogenesis. So, this could be a case of the NAM seeing the gradient potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM outside of 48 hours...may look okay but not likely to be right. NAM is in pretty decent agreement with most guidance. It was a bit colder this run but its not that different from the Euro and its ensembles or the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Models struggle with where the boundary sets up in these norluns until close in anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM is in pretty decent agreement with most guidance. It was a bit colder this run but its not that different from the Euro and its ensembles or the SREF. Nope...you're wrong...messenger is right, it can't and won't snow. The gfs is 100% right. (Trying to see what its like to post like Kev ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 There are two major differences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS is faster and doesn't tighten the gradient up as much as the NAM. However, they both indicate the potential for a tightening gradients because of the UVM/ frontogenesis. So, this could be a case of the NAM seeing the gradient potential. Yeah it defintely is hinting on that and the dynamic cooling. I guess the concern is more for how far north it goes. There is room for that in the higher elevations of central/wrn mass and points north, but for the lower elevations and south of the Pike..I don't think there is a lot of room here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Man, that could go either way in my hood for Friday on the GFS.....I'd say very marginally snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nope...you're wrong...messenger is right, it can't and won't snow. The gfs is 100% right. (Trying to see what its like to post like Kev ) It could easily still trend to crap...I wouldn't say more than 1-3" at this point...mainly for the elevated interior...but we'll have to see if we can get the colder type omega-bomb solution which would give snow right into Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 There are two major differences between the GFS and NAM. The GFS is faster and doesn't tighten the gradient up as much as the NAM. However, they both indicate the potential for a tightening gradients because of the UVM/ frontogenesis. So, this could be a case of the NAM seeing the gradient potential. mm, as one would expect. The native resolution of each dictates a tighter gradient in the NAM. I personally don't have a problem with this run tonight and I think folks are going to wind up with advisory accumulating snow at a minimum from the overnight Thur into Fri morning system. Weaker S/W than predecessor but superior mechanics for having steeper baroclinicity to work with. The rest is up to critical thickness depths supporting snow. I expect: A nw trend in the NAM that sends folks into a warm panic, but collapses back to this idea ...over the next 36 hours of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Check out that vortmax..really dove south big time on this run. I like how long the NAM keeps the high RH back in the low levels in advance of that vort. Maybe I can get Kevin's 3 continuous days of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 mm, as one would expect. The native resolution of each dictates a tighter gradient in the NAM. I personally don't have a problem with this run tonight and I think folks are going to wind up with advisory accumulating snow at a minimum from the overnight Thur into Fri morning system. Weaker S/W than predecessor but superior mechanics for having steeper baroclinicity to work with. The rest is up to critical thickness depths supporting snow. I expect: A nw trend in the NAM that sends folks into a warm panic, but collapses back to this idea ...over the next 36 hours of runs. :o and Will...yeah I'm not expecting much but hoping everything can go right to give me a few to 3 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM outside of 48 hours...may look okay but not likely to be right. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 newest tweet from Bruchard to me...congrats everyone and enjoy. @SNE_wx May get your wish now...models are trending white! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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