Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

Good luck to people in the northwest MA BOX zones, but I'm still 38/35 with occasional drizzle. Being that I'm nw of all of you...I'll let you know if I see any flakes..gonna take awhile if it happens.

I'm looking for some signs of hope where rain has begun. But unsettling to see BGM (1600') at 41/39 and ELZ (2100') still at 36/34.

hmmm...I thought of that but still odd to me. I would think southern NH would get at least an inch more then N ORH...so if they think N ORH would average 3"...then southern NH would average 4". If I were them I would put it in both places or in neither. But then again..I'm not the one who works at NWS I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The 00z NAM at least would suggest a good burst of lift around 12z, might be enough to squeeze out an inch or two. But I think PWM will be on the wrong side of the gradient.

Should be a nice drive in to work tomorrow am for me. May be ripping pretty good. We may be good for 3-6.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Having a strong feeling I'm going to get skunked based on upstream obs. ITH, BGM, and ELM are all light to moderate rain and near 40. Even ELZ at 2.1K is 36 and rain. Clouds moved in too quick to allow for any radiational cooling here: stuck at 39.6°. I think I'll still get a couple of hours of snow just before 12Z and maybe a coating to 1" type deal, perhaps 1.5" or 2" if I'm very lucky as cold bleeds in, but most of the QPF gets wasted. Far cry from the whiff we were concerned about 48 hours ago.

C NH always seems to be a snow magnet in SWF situations. Trend this winter? My time in met school there confirmed this in a big way. Looks good for a 4-6" deal there. Maybe someone can get a spot 7"?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Make sure to throw snowballs at me when my car can't make it up the hill.

Wear a football helmet. You're getting pegged.

Gonna get a never before seen trifecta...white halloween...white thanksgiving...and a white xmas. it looked like the xmas one was gonna be the hardest one to get !

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bet they have a long flirtation with rain.... Still 37.8 and rain here. Closest snow I can find upstream is 250 miles wsw in ELZ at 2100 feet.

You know it's bad when MSS is 34 with -RN.

Even Rindge flirts with rain on this run. Amazing how far north it brings the 850 0C contour, all the way to the NH-MA border. Pete is probably mostly rain on the 0z GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, fail by me as well. While I am happy the date was nailed in advance (especially when this week was looking rather confusing in the extended range), there was just no cold air. Amazing...

Going to be the story next week it looks like too. Best threat at this point is that s/w Christmas Night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, fail by me as well. While I am happy the date was nailed in advance (especially when this week was looking rather confusing in the extended range), there was just no cold air. Amazing...

Going to be the story next week it looks like too. Best threat at this point is that s/w Christmas Night.

Go fail or go home. That's been the theme.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it's still a very close call as to whether that southwest energy phases in or gets left behind. You can see looking at the 6Z GFS that a slightly faster ejection and that whole thing would phase.... Probably academic this far west, but maybe material for New England.

Well, fail by me as well. While I am happy the date was nailed in advance (especially when this week was looking rather confusing in the extended range), there was just no cold air. Amazing...

Going to be the story next week it looks like too. Best threat at this point is that s/w Christmas Night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've never seen an event crap the bed so fast. Sorry dude.

24h ago it looked so darn good too...at least for the hills. I def should have been a bit more cautious...this is one where the TV networks def won out by being conservative....so if I'm gonna call them out when they are really careful (overly) sometimes, gotta give them a kudos in this one.

I think the faster timing def hurt as it really let that southern stream vort outrun the cold press coming from the north...the further north track obviously hurt too...but I'm sure those things were not mutually exclusive. But even with a track like it took now, I think a slower system probably would have given many of us a few hours of solid snow....its basically totally done at 11z...whereas the previously slower solutions had good snow until 13 or 14z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24h ago it looked so darn good too...at least for the hills. I def should have been a bit more cautious...this is one where the TV networks def won out by being conservative....so if I'm gonna call them out when they are really careful (overly) sometimes, gotta give them a kudos in this one.

I think the faster timing def hurt as it really let that southern stream vort outrun the cold press coming from the north...the further north track obviously hurt too...but I'm sure those things were not mutually exclusive. But even with a track like it took now, I think a slower system probably would have given many of us a few hours of solid snow....its basically totally done at 11z...whereas the previously slower solutions had good snow until 13 or 14z.

Yeah that speed did hurt. But seriously...how many times would you have to go so cautious with a storm going south of ACK for the nrn ORH hills. Only in this winter. I mentioned some thoughts yesterday about going conservative. The writing was on the wall for the area yesterday morning. My heart sunk when I saw the euro weenie maps. But I at least thought the hills could do a little better for sure. Gotta give the GFS props too. Two big wins this week. It's warm look may have had the right idea this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was sort of a catch 22... Colder, but moisture suppressed, versus milder and further north, but just rain.

Which is kind of the story of this winter ...how to mix cold air and moisture.

24h ago it looked so darn good too...at least for the hills. I def should have been a bit more cautious...this is one where the TV networks def won out by being conservative....so if I'm gonna call them out when they are really careful (overly) sometimes, gotta give them a kudos in this one.

I think the faster timing def hurt as it really let that southern stream vort outrun the cold press coming from the north...the further north track obviously hurt too...but I'm sure those things were not mutually exclusive. But even with a track like it took now, I think a slower system probably would have given many of us a few hours of solid snow....its basically totally done at 11z...whereas the previously slower solutions had good snow until 13 or 14z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro weenie maps at 12Z were still putting out 5 inches of snow here. :) I didn't look at them at 0Z because it didn't really matter by then....

Yeah that speed did hurt. But seriously...how many times would you have to go so cautious with a storm going south of ACK for the nrn ORH hills. Only in this winter. I mentioned some thoughts yesterday about going conservative. The writing was on the wall for the area yesterday morning. My heart sunk when I saw the euro weenie maps. But I at least thought the hills could do a little better for sure. Gotta give the GFS props too. Two big wins this week. It's warm look may have had the right idea this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kudos to the Euro for being the only model to see this wave from last weekend.Other than that it sucked. I don't buy all the back slapping of the GFS. It had this storm near Bermuda while the Euro had us getting snow. The GFS gave us snow too remember just not as much. Every model failed. We have seen our last accumulating snowfall of the cold season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kudos to the Euro for being the only model to see this wave from last weekend.Other than that it sucked. I don't buy all the back slapping of the GFS. It had this storm near Bermuda while the Euro had us getting snow. The GFS gave us snow too remember just not as much. Every model failed. We have seen our last accumulating snowfall of the cold season.

Who cares, the euro was too cold for a while until yesterday. Both models failed, but the warmer GFS thermal profile ended up better. Euro and ensembles also had a big day 5-6 fail. I don't mind the op failing, but for the ensembles to fail like that is kind of bad. Goes to show you even the better models can have problems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...