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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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The 00z NAM at least would suggest a good burst of lift around 12z, might be enough to squeeze out an inch or two. But I think PWM will be on the wrong side of the gradient.

Thanks. At this point I'm just hoping for a little mood snow so it'll feel somewhat like Christmas for a bit. Funny how we've had a number of great Decembers which were ruined by "Grinch" storms right at/before Christmas, and now some will manage to pull a white Christmas out of the crappiest pattern in memory.

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Just read the afd for grey Maine and it sounded much better than im feeling. They said the new sref's show southern nh with 70% chance of 4 or more and that they'll be updating snow totals in the next hour. Maybe I was being a bit pessimistic

I listen to Scott and Brian and then add an inch or two to Brian's totals. They are both fantastic...Scott throws more bones to us guys up here than any of the other Mets (although I love them all). Brian is conservative but in a very professional, appropriate and non-weenie way. While I always add an inch or two to his totals, I secretly fear he will be right and he often is. Brian are you a practicing Met yet or still in school?

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I listen to Scott and Brian and then add an inch or two to Brian's totals. They are both fantastic...Scott throws more bones to us guys up here than any of the other Mets (although I love them all). Brian is conservative but in a very professional, appropriate and non-weenie way. While I always add an inch or two to his totals, I secretly fear he will be right and he often is. Brian are you a practicing Met yet or still in school?

I thought he was like thirty something.

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Basically the have/have nots of 11/23...

In these situations I have to remind myself that although I am only 15 nw of downtown CON, I pick up 300+ in elevation and that really helps. I often notice the difference in accumulation and road conditions on the road between Boscawen and Webster. Once I get over 550-600 ft it changes.

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I listen to Scott and Brian and then add an inch or two to Brian's totals. They are both fantastic...Scott throws more bones to us guys up here than any of the other Mets (although I love them all). Brian is conservative but in a very professional, appropriate and non-weenie way. While I always add an inch or two to his totals, I secretly fear he will be right and he often is. Brian are you a practicing Met yet or still in school?

Yeah I agree with you both of them seem to always have a realistic forecast that keeps your hopes in check until its actually ripping so you don't have a letdown if nothing ends up working out the right way.

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Interesting that N ORH has an advisory but southern NH doesn't...and both counties are BOX :blink:

BOX answers you in the AFD

TREND OF ALL MODELS IS TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION WITH KEY THICKNESS

VALUES DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH. WHILE THIS DOESN/T COMPLETELY RULE

OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH...THE BEST CHANCE FOR

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. QPF IS BASED ON

HPC VALUES...SNOW CONVERSION TOOLS BRING 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS TO

AREAS OF NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE HAVE

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST MASS BASED ON THESE

AMOUNTS AND A 3 INCH ADVISORY THRESHOLD. THE THRESHOLD IS HIGHER

IN SOUTHWEST NH...SO NO ADVISORY FOR THERE.

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BOX answers you in the AFD

TREND OF ALL MODELS IS TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION WITH KEY THICKNESS

VALUES DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH. WHILE THIS DOESN/T COMPLETELY RULE

OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH...THE BEST CHANCE FOR

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. QPF IS BASED ON

HPC VALUES...SNOW CONVERSION TOOLS BRING 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS TO

AREAS OF NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE HAVE

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST MASS BASED ON THESE

AMOUNTS AND A 3 INCH ADVISORY THRESHOLD. THE THRESHOLD IS HIGHER

IN SOUTHWEST NH...SO NO ADVISORY FOR THERE.

hmmm...I thought of that but still odd to me. I would think southern NH would get at least an inch more then N ORH...so if they think N ORH would average 3"...then southern NH would average 4". If I were them I would put it in both places or in neither. But then again..I'm not the one who works at NWS I guess.

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hmmm...I thought of that but still odd to me. I would think southern NH would get at least an inch more then N ORH...so if they think N ORH would average 3"...then southern NH would average 4". If I were them I would put it in both places or in neither. But then again..I'm not the one who works at NWS I guess.

I wonder if NH DOT determines the advisory settings.... hmmmmm...would be nice if we knew someone who does work for them....

Nope... it is NWS

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/warningcriteria.shtml

I see your point

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What a disaster...DNS 404 error for like 8 hours.

Bad trend this afternoon on models for ORH county...well all of MA really. 00z NAM looks like it cooled back down a tick and it gives N ORH county 2-4"...I was joking with Scooter earlier that I didn't think Weenie Ridge would get 3-4" while I get skunked with an inch or less...lol, I might have to eat those words. :lol:

Looking at the current low level temps, I still think the northern hills should get some accumulation...prob 2-4" I'd stick to. They will probably have to waste a couple hours of heavier precip though to cool those final few degrees from like 36-37F down to 32-33F. Omega is very strong though so those guys can probably overcome it...further south around me its more precarious...I might have to waste more than half of the precip.

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I wonder if NH DOT determines the advisory settings.... hmmmmm...would be nice if we knew someone who does work for them....

Nope... it is NWS

http://www.erh.noaa....gcriteria.shtml

I see your point

The thresholds are geared towards impacts. At some point it was agreed upon that 4" was the cutoff in NH for significant impacts. These can also be adjusted based upon time of day (i.e. rush hour), holidays, etc.

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The thresholds are geared towards impacts. At some point it was agreed upon that 4" was the cutoff in NH for significant impacts. These can also be adjusted based upon time of day (i.e. rush hour), holidays, etc.

It makes sense to an extent...but the fact that this is happening at commute time and that they have one for N ORH..I would think they would put one up. I would think you agree based on the NNE map you posted and adjacent advisories from GYX.

No biggie though.

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What a disaster...DNS 404 error for like 8 hours.

Bad trend this afternoon on models for ORH county...well all of MA really. 00z NAM looks like it cooled back down a tick and it gives N ORH county 2-4"...I was joking with Scooter earlier that I didn't think Weenie Ridge would get 3-4" while I get skunked with an inch or less...lol, I might have to eat those words. :lol:

Looking at the current low level temps, I still think the northern hills should get some accumulation...prob 2-4" I'd stick to. They will probably have to waste a couple hours of heavier precip though to cool those final few degrees from like 36-37F down to 32-33F. Omega is very strong though so those guys can probably overcome it...further south around me its more precarious...I might have to waste more than half of the precip.

I'm worried W.R. might not even get 2"

I was in ORH today (Hanover Theater)

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It makes sense to an extent...but the fact that this is happening at commute time and that they have one for N ORH..I would think they would put one up. I would think you agree based on the NNE map you posted and adjacent advisories from GYX.

No biggie though.

People from NH will be pulling over at the MA border to put on their snow tires

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It makes sense to an extent...but the fact that this is happening at commute time and that they have one for N ORH..I would think they would put one up. I would think you agree based on the NNE map you posted and adjacent advisories from GYX.

No biggie though.

Well I can only speak to what I'm seeing, but BOX's snow grids are pretty pessimistic for SW NH. I would think that the elevations will make out fairly well there. But then again elevations aren't always considered for headlines.

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People from NH will be pulling over at the MA border to put on their snow tires

LOL...I know it doesn't matter at all because the people on this forum and plow companies are probably the only people who see them.

Well maybe the people who go to weather.com and see the little blinking warning at the top as well.

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I'm worried W.R. might not even get 2"

I was in ORH today (Hanover Theater)

WaWa should do ok...esp on the actual mountain...most of them trails are over 1400 feet. Elevation will be huge...even moreso than before now that the low level temps are a bigger issue than what it looked like yesterday.

We'll probably have a pretty good idea after the first hour or two of steady precip. See how quickly the column can cool from the top down.

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WaWa should do ok...esp on the actual mountain...most of them trails are over 1400 feet. Elevation will be huge...even moreso than before now that the low level temps are a bigger issue than what it looked like yesterday.

We'll probably have a pretty good idea after the first hour or two of steady precip. See how quickly the column can cool from the top down.

td's are pretty high all around. Putrid air robbing me of inches.

Off to bed. I'll be up at 5. Expecting very little

Good luck with this on the forecasting and weenie side

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