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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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I see your point but I was up at midnight last night waiting for that severe line to roll through and it was worth me dogging it all day today. But there are extreme winter lovers, extreme tropical, extreme extreme, I love winter but dig them all. And I seem to remember some very excited posts from you in June.

As I posted... My fascination with one form of weather trended into other realms... the temporary satisfaction of learning about severe events while I wait for winter actually becomes worth it every once in awhile... very rare here. I love winter and also dig them all, but like I said, I love winter.

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The Greens/Whites get smoked.

The lift looks pretty impressive for a time/height over Sullivan County. A consistent period of lift on the 00z NAM from around 06z through almost 15z. It kind of hangs onto that idea of an inverted trough lingering back NW of the low. 18z GFS is just too fast with the lift, would have it precipitating already over central NH.

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Just read the afd for grey Maine and it sounded much better than im feeling. They said the new sref's show southern nh with 70% chance of 4 or more and that they'll be updating snow totals in the next hour. Maybe I was being a bit pessimistic

Well unfortunately for you, you'll be right on the edge it looks like. If you were living in northwestern Merrimack County I would feel much better about that greater than 4". You're area is around 40% chance, which is still a significant increase over the 15z SREF run.

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Well unfortunately for you, you'll be right on the edge it looks like. If you were living in northwestern Merrimack County I would feel much better about that greater than 4". You're area is around 40% chance, which is still a significant increase over the 15z SREF runners.

I really wasn't expecting the 4+ for me, to be honest I was starting to get a bit worried about even getting 1 inch. And 40% doesn't sound all too bad either. Like I said an inch or two is great anything more is bonus.

Are you working tonight?

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Well unfortunately for you, you'll be right on the edge it looks like. If you were living in northwestern Merrimack County I would feel much better about that greater than 4". You're area is around 40% chance, which is still a significant increase over the 15z SREF run.

We could see the cut off be near CON, or it could set up more near the Rockingham border.

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But might be a mix of RASN for a lil' while.

9z I'm at 1C at the sfc with H95 at 0C although Plymouth is at 0C at the sfc. I'd imagine it's a wet snow (maybe non-sticking) at that point here. 12z it's accumulating snow from here to CON. The problem is this is still bumping north up to the time of the event so I'm not confident with even what the NAM is spitting out now for the BL.

I envision a 35-37F wet RASN dropping to about 34F after wasting 30-60mins of QPF and then the steady drop down to 32-33F on the following hour with it beginning to accumulate. I'm hoping for 3-5" although I'm prepared for the lower end given higher snow density and possibly wasting some QPF.

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I really wasn't expecting the 4+ for me, to be honest I was starting to get a bit worried about even getting 1 inch. And 40% doesn't sound all too bad either. Like I said an inch or two is great anything more is bonus.

Are you working tonight?

I am, long term though, so really I just get to monger and help out where needed.

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