weatherMA Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 HRRR looks good for a nice stripe of 4-6" in central/ southern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Wow is the NAM coming in warm aloft. lol. I'm beginning to get worried here. Hopefully it's at least a 32.5F thumping. The nam looks to support snow for the northern half of mass at 12z, but surface temps are like 40F. It'll be nice to have snow in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Kevin has hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The Greens/Whites get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The Greens/Whites get smoked. Yeah they do, even you get a good hit after starting as a brief mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 You do really well Brian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The Greens/Whites get smoked. I didn't realize the drug problem was that bad up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 You do really well Brian. But might be a mix of RASN for a lil' while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well I went from being too far north for the best accumulations last night to too far south for them tonight. I should just be thankful I have a great chance of an inch to make it look christmasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I see your point but I was up at midnight last night waiting for that severe line to roll through and it was worth me dogging it all day today. But there are extreme winter lovers, extreme tropical, extreme extreme, I love winter but dig them all. And I seem to remember some very excited posts from you in June. As I posted... My fascination with one form of weather trended into other realms... the temporary satisfaction of learning about severe events while I wait for winter actually becomes worth it every once in awhile... very rare here. I love winter and also dig them all, but like I said, I love winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The Greens/Whites get smoked. The lift looks pretty impressive for a time/height over Sullivan County. A consistent period of lift on the 00z NAM from around 06z through almost 15z. It kind of hangs onto that idea of an inverted trough lingering back NW of the low. 18z GFS is just too fast with the lift, would have it precipitating already over central NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 You do really well Brian. you are a comforting presence in this very dark time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I hope Kevin's not out on that bridge with George Bailey now. He need to hang on ..there may be a Boxing Day miracle for him yet. Kevin has hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 you are a comforting presence in this very dark time. Enjoy the snow..lol. Hopefully it works out for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Just read the afd for grey Maine and it sounded much better than im feeling. They said the new sref's show southern nh with 70% chance of 4 or more and that they'll be updating snow totals in the next hour. Maybe I was being a bit pessimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Kevin has hope! If the NAM is right that busts bad in MA RI and CT. 1000/850mb CTs are on the MA/NH border at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Congrats, Brian and Mark and our other CNE/NNE friends. Here's hoping some of us can still eek something out of this debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well this is decent...I'd take 1" and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Just read the afd for grey Maine and it sounded much better than im feeling. They said the new sref's show southern nh with 70% chance of 4 or more and that they'll be updating snow totals in the next hour. Maybe I was being a bit pessimistic Well unfortunately for you, you'll be right on the edge it looks like. If you were living in northwestern Merrimack County I would feel much better about that greater than 4". You're area is around 40% chance, which is still a significant increase over the 15z SREF run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Congrats, Brian and Mark and our other CNE/NNE friends. Here's hoping some of us can still eek something out of this debacle. BOX still thinks 2-4 for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well this is decent...I'd take 1" and run. Wow, I love the new snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well unfortunately for you, you'll be right on the edge it looks like. If you were living in northwestern Merrimack County I would feel much better about that greater than 4". You're area is around 40% chance, which is still a significant increase over the 15z SREF runners. I really wasn't expecting the 4+ for me, to be honest I was starting to get a bit worried about even getting 1 inch. And 40% doesn't sound all too bad either. Like I said an inch or two is great anything more is bonus. Are you working tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well unfortunately for you, you'll be right on the edge it looks like. If you were living in northwestern Merrimack County I would feel much better about that greater than 4". You're area is around 40% chance, which is still a significant increase over the 15z SREF run. We could see the cut off be near CON, or it could set up more near the Rockingham border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 But might be a mix of RASN for a lil' while. 9z I'm at 1C at the sfc with H95 at 0C although Plymouth is at 0C at the sfc. I'd imagine it's a wet snow (maybe non-sticking) at that point here. 12z it's accumulating snow from here to CON. The problem is this is still bumping north up to the time of the event so I'm not confident with even what the NAM is spitting out now for the BL.I envision a 35-37F wet RASN dropping to about 34F after wasting 30-60mins of QPF and then the steady drop down to 32-33F on the following hour with it beginning to accumulate. I'm hoping for 3-5" although I'm prepared for the lower end given higher snow density and possibly wasting some QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I really wasn't expecting the 4+ for me, to be honest I was starting to get a bit worried about even getting 1 inch. And 40% doesn't sound all too bad either. Like I said an inch or two is great anything more is bonus. Are you working tonight? I am, long term though, so really I just get to monger and help out where needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 We could see the cut off be near CON, or it could set up more near the Rockingham border. Basically the have/have nots of 11/23... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Basically the have/have nots of 11/23... Just with weaker dynamics in play, hence about half the final totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 We could see the cut off be near CON, or it could set up more near the Rockingham border. What's your current thinking for the immediate Portland area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Basically the have/have nots of 11/23... It does seem to feel quite similar to that storm where you ended with around 7 and I had 3.5 I could live with something like that. Maybe a little less this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 What's your current thinking for the immediate Portland area? The 00z NAM at least would suggest a good burst of lift around 12z, might be enough to squeeze out an inch or two. But I think PWM will be on the wrong side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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