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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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While we're on the topic of Pete B...I sent him a tweet about the Friday storm since he seemed so confident about the Sunday storm being snow inland/rain coast. I asked him if he thought there was a potential for a few inches north of the pike...and got this response. lol- elevations may mix.

pbouchardon7 Pete Bouchard

@SNE_wx Not feeling the GFS love for a cold boundary layer and aggressive qpf...yet. Although the colder 850 temps say elevations may mix.

He's been heavily burned on llvl CAA before...lol.
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Looking at the SREFs again, its pretty clear why the snowfall probs have increased so much...at 09z Friday it has the 34F isotherm running from near 495 and then west along the pike while the previous run had the 38F isotherm in the same spot...this is in addition to being juicier in qpf too. I think the stronger more robust system is good up to a point...the stronger pressure difference and increased omega should help with cooling the BL.

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Looking at the SREFs again, its pretty clear why the snowfall probs have increased so much...at 09z Friday it has the 34F isotherm running from near 495 and then west along the pike while the previous run had the 38F isotherm in the same spot...this is in addition to being juicier in qpf too. I think the stronger more robust system is good up to a point...the stronger pressure difference and increased omega should help with cooling the BL.

Good to see some talk like this. Sure was boring without a potential.

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Looking at the SREFs again, its pretty clear why the snowfall probs have increased so much...at 09z Friday it has the 34F isotherm running from near 495 and then west along the pike while the previous run had the 38F isotherm in the same spot...this is in addition to being juicier in qpf too. I think the stronger more robust system is good up to a point...the stronger pressure difference and increased omega should help with cooling the BL.

You would think there would be a good omega burst coming through here, despite maybe getting a little disorganized. There is still some good WAA and the isotherms are packing pretty good.

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You would think there would be a good omega burst coming through here, despite maybe getting a little disorganized. There is still some good WAA and the isotherms are packing pretty good.

The vortmax holds together better on more recent runs which is definitely helping keep the dynamic processes stronger for a longer time. Keeps the mid-level circulation healthier.

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The vortmax holds together better on more recent runs which is definitely helping keep the dynamic processes stronger for a longer time. Keeps the mid-level circulation healthier.

Yeah I noticed that. I would think it has a chance to get a little north and more juicier over the next couple of days.

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Yeah I noticed that. I would think it has a chance to get a little north and more juicier over the next couple of days.

Yeah agreed...would not surprise me at all. A little bit north won't do any harm...it might make an advisory event more likely for the interior hills...but it could hurt the southern snow zones like near Kevin. The ageostrophic drain and the offsetting cooling from larger omega will make small nudges northward of little consequence to where the R/S line is. But something like a 50-70 mile bump north could be problematic.

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Formidable for sure. It's warmer wetter NW than the 12z for sure through 60.

Whats to stop that trend from continuing?

It has a limit because its getting sheared by the confluence between the SE ridge and the shortwave to the northwest over the lakes. It could keep inching more robust but I don't think its going to be tracking overhead or anything.

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Formidable for sure. It's warmer wetter NW than the 12z for sure through 60.

Whats to stop that trend from continuing?

Colder air. The S/W passage in the nearer term helps establish a much more define baroclinic wall in the backside. Next eject S/W is weaker, but rides over better defined frontal slopes and colder profiled critical thickness. Dry air also feeds back positively in that set up. GFS' also not likely to see that level of resolution. NAM is onto it. White ground most locals NW of the immediate coastal plain by noon on Friday.

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