dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 While we're on the topic of Pete B...I sent him a tweet about the Friday storm since he seemed so confident about the Sunday storm being snow inland/rain coast. I asked him if he thought there was a potential for a few inches north of the pike...and got this response. lol- elevations may mix. pbouchardon7 Pete Bouchard @SNE_wx Not feeling the GFS love for a cold boundary layer and aggressive qpf...yet. Although the colder 850 temps say elevations may mix. He's been heavily burned on llvl CAA before...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I like that site as well cobb data I got lambasted last year for using that site but it did very well, thanks for the nomination LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looking at the SREFs again, its pretty clear why the snowfall probs have increased so much...at 09z Friday it has the 34F isotherm running from near 495 and then west along the pike while the previous run had the 38F isotherm in the same spot...this is in addition to being juicier in qpf too. I think the stronger more robust system is good up to a point...the stronger pressure difference and increased omega should help with cooling the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looking at the SREFs again, its pretty clear why the snowfall probs have increased so much...at 09z Friday it has the 34F isotherm running from near 495 and then west along the pike while the previous run had the 38F isotherm in the same spot...this is in addition to being juicier in qpf too. I think the stronger more robust system is good up to a point...the stronger pressure difference and increased omega should help with cooling the BL. Good to see some talk like this. Sure was boring without a potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looking at the SREFs again, its pretty clear why the snowfall probs have increased so much...at 09z Friday it has the 34F isotherm running from near 495 and then west along the pike while the previous run had the 38F isotherm in the same spot...this is in addition to being juicier in qpf too. I think the stronger more robust system is good up to a point...the stronger pressure difference and increased omega should help with cooling the BL. You would think there would be a good omega burst coming through here, despite maybe getting a little disorganized. There is still some good WAA and the isotherms are packing pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm that transparent huh? lol I am liking that potential still. I have another hug waiting for you on New Year's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well, we just have to make it follow the most weenie solution now, don't we Off to bed now. Treadmill beckons at 5AM The trend is the friend here....just how hairy is your back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Vim Toot not going to be happy, GFS warmer for 12/21ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 You would think there would be a good omega burst coming through here, despite maybe getting a little disorganized. There is still some good WAA and the isotherms are packing pretty good. The vortmax holds together better on more recent runs which is definitely helping keep the dynamic processes stronger for a longer time. Keeps the mid-level circulation healthier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 how can i slow this down 6 hours or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 how can i slow this down 6 hours or so? Superman flying in reverse around the planet...you need to watch more tv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Superman flying in reverse around the planet...you need to watch more tv. i guess it will be nice to see fresh snow but falling snow is always better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The vortmax holds together better on more recent runs which is definitely helping keep the dynamic processes stronger for a longer time. Keeps the mid-level circulation healthier. Yeah I noticed that. I would think it has a chance to get a little north and more juicier over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Vim Toot not going to be happy, GFS warmer for 12/21ish Wrong thread, start a new one LOLGFS is just awful as computer model asset lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yeah I noticed that. I would think it has a chance to get a little north and more juicier over the next couple of days. Yeah agreed...would not surprise me at all. A little bit north won't do any harm...it might make an advisory event more likely for the interior hills...but it could hurt the southern snow zones like near Kevin. The ageostrophic drain and the offsetting cooling from larger omega will make small nudges northward of little consequence to where the R/S line is. But something like a 50-70 mile bump north could be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Why aren't news outlets even talking about Friday's potential? Most forecasts are mid 40s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I got lambasted last year for using that site but it did very well, thanks for the nomination LOL I have had good luck with it as well, Not any worse then the clown maps i think, Your welcome.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS warmer through 48 vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Surprised they still have low 40s for highs at BOX on Saturday. Seems really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The GFS shows one of the most impressive SE ridges I have seen in December, in a long long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS warmer through 48 vs 12z Yup, A little further north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The GFS shows one of the most impressive SE ridges I have seen in December, in a long long time. Formidable for sure. It's warmer wetter NW than the 12z for sure through 60. Whats to stop that trend from continuing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Massive SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Formidable for sure. It's warmer wetter NW than the 12z for sure through 60. Whats to stop that trend from continuing? Not for nothing and not wish casting but seriously bro the GFS sucks as a model a lot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 A little warmer than the 18z run by 12z Friday, but not terribly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This is a warm run at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Formidable for sure. It's warmer wetter NW than the 12z for sure through 60. Whats to stop that trend from continuing? It has a limit because its getting sheared by the confluence between the SE ridge and the shortwave to the northwest over the lakes. It could keep inching more robust but I don't think its going to be tracking overhead or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 This is a warm run at 850. It actually looks like rain for Kevin on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Man, I am lost in the sauce.....Dec 23rd now looks like the largest threat, or what...benn away all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Formidable for sure. It's warmer wetter NW than the 12z for sure through 60. Whats to stop that trend from continuing? Colder air. The S/W passage in the nearer term helps establish a much more define baroclinic wall in the backside. Next eject S/W is weaker, but rides over better defined frontal slopes and colder profiled critical thickness. Dry air also feeds back positively in that set up. GFS' also not likely to see that level of resolution. NAM is onto it. White ground most locals NW of the immediate coastal plain by noon on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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