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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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It might not do too bad, but it does have a bit of a warm bias. The HRRR gives you about 2" or so by 12z. It might have the right idea of a warm bias given this pattern..lol. The RUC did cool off a tad for you from the 21z run, but loop 850 temps. Look how they warm before they crash south again. That's gonna port a lot of people except may far nrn areas of the state..or nw areas.

Warm is the norm

thanks for all of your help!

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Oh I agree, I pointed those areas out from a pure dynamics stand point. That looks like where everything is coming together the best. But to the north I think ratios will help out, as the SREF hints at 100 mb deep DGZ all the way to the spine of the Whites.

I also think you're right about farther south at elevation. There will be a pretty good period (starting 09zish?) of lift that might give them a late shot.

For once I would like to talk about a winter wx event imby..lol, but such is hard to come by this year. Hopefully later in Jan.

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LOL.

I think this is the first time I've ever hoped for a Channel 22 map to verify for mby.

I wouldn't think that will end up being that far off. We may do better than you think. I just sacrificed a lamb to Ullr so we're good. Pity it could have lived if it hadn't been for LL's bad juju.

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For once I would like to talk about a winter wx event imby..lol, but such is hard to come by this year. Hopefully later in Jan.

I think this is doubly hard because it's not even like the SNE crowd is missing out on a particularly dynamic storm. So you can't even weenie out at a bombing low or 4"/hr banding.

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I wouldn't think that will end up being that far off. We may do better than you think. I just sacrificed a lamb to Ullr so we're good. Pity it could have lived if it hadn't been for LL's bad juju.

No mega torch next week?

Hopefully my 1.5" sticks around for a few days

LOL

I'm go with a 70% closure likelihood tomorrow for Mohawk.

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Joe's NW trend has pummeled it into submission

He did a nice job calling for this early on (others did, too)

I'd say I've had a good 4+ weeks overall....never bought into the cold and the proof is in the pudding. Lots of "talk" about change....no change.

I mowed the front and side lawn today in a tshirt.

There's no blocking, there's no cold air established, there's no southeast trend or much snow in SNE...just the facts.

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I feel bad for the people who put all their effort/time into winter. I love all kinds of weather... tropics, severe, hydro... so while losing winter sucks it's not the end of the world. I know Ginx is on the same page.

I do too, but it's the one element that this region does relatively well in. I enjoy not only the ambiance of winter wx, but the forecast of them as well. Coastals are right there too.

I wish we had more severe, but we don't excel in that dept. You go to Kansas, and enthusiasts probably feel the same about severe wx there, as people do here with winter wx. Severe is def on my to do list as far as brushing up. I had fun a good time going into other threads this year in April and May.

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There is no doubt this region puts most of its effort into snow, but we should. Its the only reason why most of us is here. I for one joined this board with little to no education on meteorology. I joined specifically to find out why it snowed and the details on what creates our winter snowstorms. It definitely wasn't to learn about tropics that effect us realistically once every ten years, severe events that only deliver once every five years, and flooding that really is only fun to look at when it doesn't effect you and destroy your home. (which a lot of the time when you see it). Sure, have I learned a lot about other seasons and its events? yes. But only to keep myself occupied when its not snowing. Thats the bottom line. I gurantee the majority on here is the same way. You can make yourselves feel better and say forecasting heat waves where you sweat your balls off is fun, but thats no bueno for me at heart. SNE is snow lovers land from childhood till now. I'm not as weenie sick as most so I will survive a dead ratter, but it definitely affects me.

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I feel bad for the people who put all their effort/time into winter. I love all kinds of weather... tropics, severe, hydro... so while losing winter sucks it's not the end of the world. I know Ginx is on the same page.

Absolutely, but even times like this are educational. I said it elsewhere but I can not remember Temperature deviation persistence for this long a period ever. Can you imagine if we had the same negative departures since Sept that we have had positive. The implications would be absolutely unprecedented. Positive departures have little societal impact other than some economic gains and losses, turn that around and the difference is monumental. New moon this weekend, just maybe we get a break Monday with that 5 H and some ridging ahead of it.

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My love of snowstorms has certainly caused me to enjoy other meteorological events more, but that is the ONLY and I mean ONLY reason why I am interested in them. No one on here was up one night during a southeaster and creamed their pants over a gust at 4am to 50mph and said "hey i want to join amwx to discuss mixing and gust potential" when I grow up..

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My love of snowstorms has certainly caused me to enjoy other meteorological events more, but that is the ONLY and I mean ONLY reason why I am interested in them. No one on here was up one night during a southeaster and creamed their pants over a gust at 4am to 50mph and said "hey i want to join amwx to discuss mixing and gust potential" when I grow up..

I see your point but I was up at midnight last night waiting for that severe line to roll through and it was worth me dogging it all day today. But there are extreme winter lovers, extreme tropical, extreme extreme, I love winter but dig them all. And I seem to remember some very excited posts from you in June.

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