HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 It might not do too bad, but it does have a bit of a warm bias. The HRRR gives you about 2" or so by 12z. It might have the right idea of a warm bias given this pattern..lol. The RUC did cool off a tad for you from the 21z run, but loop 850 temps. Look how they warm before they crash south again. That's gonna port a lot of people except may far nrn areas of the state..or nw areas. Warm is the norm thanks for all of your help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Joe's NW trend has pummeled it into submission He did a nice job calling for this early on (others did, too) Nothing has verified and the Jets have no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Where the hell is Messenger with his SE trend fetish? LOL. I think this is the first time I've ever hoped for a Channel 22 map to verify for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Based on my current thoughts, I like the southern Vermont, through Sullivan-northern Merrimack-Belknap-southern Carroll counties, into maybe far northern York County. Especially at elevation. 675 ft at the border of Webster and Salisbury on 127 in Merrimack County. I will let you know how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Oh I agree, I pointed those areas out from a pure dynamics stand point. That looks like where everything is coming together the best. But to the north I think ratios will help out, as the SREF hints at 100 mb deep DGZ all the way to the spine of the Whites. I also think you're right about farther south at elevation. There will be a pretty good period (starting 09zish?) of lift that might give them a late shot. For once I would like to talk about a winter wx event imby..lol, but such is hard to come by this year. Hopefully later in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 LOL. I think this is the first time I've ever hoped for a Channel 22 map to verify for mby. Me too... It is usually a funny one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 LOL. I think this is the first time I've ever hoped for a Channel 22 map to verify for mby. I wouldn't think that will end up being that far off. We may do better than you think. I just sacrificed a lamb to Ullr so we're good. Pity it could have lived if it hadn't been for LL's bad juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 For once I would like to talk about a winter wx event imby..lol, but such is hard to come by this year. Hopefully later in Jan. I think this is doubly hard because it's not even like the SNE crowd is missing out on a particularly dynamic storm. So you can't even weenie out at a bombing low or 4"/hr banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I think this is doubly hard because it's not even like the SNE crowd is missing out on a particularly dynamic storm. So you can't even weenie out at a bombing low or 4"/hr banding. Yeah the storm is a bit of a bore anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 No mega torch next week? Hopefully my 1.5" sticks around for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I wouldn't think that will end up being that far off. We may do better than you think. I just sacrificed a lamb to Ullr so we're good. Pity it could have lived if it hadn't been for LL's bad juju. No mega torch next week? Hopefully my 1.5" sticks around for a few days LOL I'm go with a 70% closure likelihood tomorrow for Mohawk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Not quite sure why BOX gives your area a WWA and none for me in a zone that reaches 2K feet south of here..... ATM temps have reached a wall 38.3/35.1 and essentially unchanged for 90 minutes. LOL I'm go with a 70% closure likelihood tomorrow for Mohawk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 How bad is it? It's so bad instead of spending my free geek time tracking snowstorms I am reading up on tidal currents and fish patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 How bad is it? It's so bad instead of spending my free geek time tracking snowstorms I am reading up on tidal currents and fish patterns. I've wasted a lot of time, but I enjoy talking wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 How bad is it? It's so bad instead of spending my free geek time tracking snowstorms I am reading up on tidal currents and fish patterns. Please return your Circle of Trust membership badge to the home office. Thanks. 33F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 good luck folks. hope some of you see the white christmas surprise, better some than none of us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I've wasted a lot of time, but I enjoy talking wx. I feel bad for the people who put all their effort/time into winter. I love all kinds of weather... tropics, severe, hydro... so while losing winter sucks it's not the end of the world. I know Ginx is on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Please return your Circle of Trust membership badge to the home office. Thanks. 33F It is times like this that test the steel of members of the CoT. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I feel bad for the people who put all their effort/time into winter. I love all kinds of weather... tropics, severe, hydro... so while losing winter sucks it's not the end of the world. I know Ginx is on the same page. The torch since Sept has been interesting in its own way Sucks, but interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The torch since Sept has been interesting in its own way Sucks, but interesting Some signs of life for winter enthusiasts.......weeklies, some sw, perhaps even the pv splitting in the coming weeks with a lobe rotating south and the weekles show some HLB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Joe's NW trend has pummeled it into submission He did a nice job calling for this early on (others did, too) I'd say I've had a good 4+ weeks overall....never bought into the cold and the proof is in the pudding. Lots of "talk" about change....no change. I mowed the front and side lawn today in a tshirt. There's no blocking, there's no cold air established, there's no southeast trend or much snow in SNE...just the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I feel bad for the people who put all their effort/time into winter. I love all kinds of weather... tropics, severe, hydro... so while losing winter sucks it's not the end of the world. I know Ginx is on the same page. I do too, but it's the one element that this region does relatively well in. I enjoy not only the ambiance of winter wx, but the forecast of them as well. Coastals are right there too. I wish we had more severe, but we don't excel in that dept. You go to Kansas, and enthusiasts probably feel the same about severe wx there, as people do here with winter wx. Severe is def on my to do list as far as brushing up. I had fun a good time going into other threads this year in April and May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 There is no doubt this region puts most of its effort into snow, but we should. Its the only reason why most of us is here. I for one joined this board with little to no education on meteorology. I joined specifically to find out why it snowed and the details on what creates our winter snowstorms. It definitely wasn't to learn about tropics that effect us realistically once every ten years, severe events that only deliver once every five years, and flooding that really is only fun to look at when it doesn't effect you and destroy your home. (which a lot of the time when you see it). Sure, have I learned a lot about other seasons and its events? yes. But only to keep myself occupied when its not snowing. Thats the bottom line. I gurantee the majority on here is the same way. You can make yourselves feel better and say forecasting heat waves where you sweat your balls off is fun, but thats no bueno for me at heart. SNE is snow lovers land from childhood till now. I'm not as weenie sick as most so I will survive a dead ratter, but it definitely affects me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I feel bad for the people who put all their effort/time into winter. I love all kinds of weather... tropics, severe, hydro... so while losing winter sucks it's not the end of the world. I know Ginx is on the same page. Absolutely, but even times like this are educational. I said it elsewhere but I can not remember Temperature deviation persistence for this long a period ever. Can you imagine if we had the same negative departures since Sept that we have had positive. The implications would be absolutely unprecedented. Positive departures have little societal impact other than some economic gains and losses, turn that around and the difference is monumental. New moon this weekend, just maybe we get a break Monday with that 5 H and some ridging ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 My love of snowstorms has certainly caused me to enjoy other meteorological events more, but that is the ONLY and I mean ONLY reason why I am interested in them. No one on here was up one night during a southeaster and creamed their pants over a gust at 4am to 50mph and said "hey i want to join amwx to discuss mixing and gust potential" when I grow up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 37/35, dp's and temps steadily ticking down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 My love of snowstorms has certainly caused me to enjoy other meteorological events more, but that is the ONLY and I mean ONLY reason why I am interested in them. No one on here was up one night during a southeaster and creamed their pants over a gust at 4am to 50mph and said "hey i want to join amwx to discuss mixing and gust potential" when I grow up.. I see your point but I was up at midnight last night waiting for that severe line to roll through and it was worth me dogging it all day today. But there are extreme winter lovers, extreme tropical, extreme extreme, I love winter but dig them all. And I seem to remember some very excited posts from you in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 HM did a good job calling this. If only he had said rain instead of snow he would have been accurate. The low does take a nice track I'll give him that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Another bump north on the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Wow is the NAM coming in warm aloft. lol. I'm beginning to get worried here. Hopefully it's at least a 32.5F thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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