weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Once again, the elephant in the room was the incredibly warm antecedent conds with no real cold seen in any of the NNE locales. The pachyderm has returned and doesn't seem to want to leave..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Tip said it best. Very difficult situation at best and the 12z models ran too warm. It's warmer everywhere. It's what we talked about yesterday and today. No ageo flow draining cold and relying on top-down cooling from aloft is not the best recipe for snow. Good luck to those along rt 2 and into GC. It's still possible strong omega from the frontogenesis will allow for 2-3" at near 1000ft or higher..esp at further north you are towards the NH and VT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 There appears to be 2 factors that are biggest in unraveling the Friday system in these last frames here: 1) The system its self is more potent across the last 2 cycles of every guidance I've seen; that also seems to be verifying when observing the various satellite loops. The 19z analysis puts a 1010mb low where the colder 00z guidance had 1016 for 18 hours out. This causes(d) more latent heat injection immediately downstream as the on-going convection in the deep south exhausts. This then feeds back on causing more of a NW track because that injection strengthens the ridge. This is Met 101 really ... Usually greater amplitude does result in a turn N faster for systems moving NE up the western peripheries of subtropical ridges - completely normal. The question is, why were the models muting intensity all along? Perhaps another question, why were we so accepting of the muting - this latter question is more about bad attitude. The irony there being, if anyone thought of more intensity, they may have come with bad news, anyway. Weird. There's some humor there - we were f*ck from the get go. Oh man 2) Someone should check, ... but I am fairly certain the overall synoptic overview for Friday, from Monday/Tuesday, was that the polar high N would get more entrenched than it has. That appears in the process of busting pretty cleanly. I don't think the fact that it isn't modeled to be there now, counts. That's bad performance, period, regarding that aspect of this. In fact, what we currently have is a bifurcated air mass in reality (sorry about the big word). But the air has split into this rotted Pacific vomit that lies behind the overnight fropa and in front of the real polar polar boundary over the eastern lakes. That air mass out there doesn't really appear to want to get entrained into the circulation of this low until it is by the boards. I bet a micro-analysis of the air mass over central NY to central VT-NH around 12z tomorro will show a frontalysis in that region with colder air that was "supposed" to be in here, stalled in that vicinity. It kind of makes sense with seasonal trend... The precipiating events have all been on the warm side of the mean polar boundary thus far this season - only one on the cold, you guessed it ... Halloween. This all said, it isn't exactly a warm system. The thermal fields show it being a cold miserable rain, and the total period should get snow in the air for most, albeit late ...particularly should that weak Norlun-like trough lag back like most guidance has it. I just can't endorse a very good system at this point, and will await to be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 There appears to be 2 factors that are biggest in unraveling the Friday system in these last frames here: 1) The system its self is more potent across the last 2 cycles of every guidance I've seen; that also seems to be verifying when observing the various satellite loops. The 19z analysis puts a 1010mb low where the colder 00z guidance had 1016 for 18 hours out. This causes(d) more latent heat injection immediately downstream as the on-going convection in the deep south exhausts. This then feeds back on causing more of a NW track because that injection strengthens the ridge. This is Met 101 really ... Usually greater amplitude does result in a turn N faster for systems moving NE up the western peripheries of subtropical ridges - completely normal. The question is, why were the models muting intensity all along? Perhaps another question, why were we so accepting of the muting - this latter question is more about bad attitude. The irony there being, if anyone thought of more intensity, they may have come with bad news, anyway. Weird. 2) Someone should check, ... but I am fairly certain the overall synoptic overview for Friday, from Monday/Tuesday, was that the polar high N would get more entrenched than it has. That appears in the process of busting pretty cleanly. I don't think the fact that it isn't modeled to be there now, counts. That's bad performance, period, regarding that aspect of this. In fact, what we currently have is a bifurcated air mass in reality (sorry about the big word). But the air has split into this rotted Pacific vomit that lies behind the overnight fropa and in front of the real polar polar boundary over the eastern lakes. That air mass out there doesn't really appear to want to get entrained into the circulation of this low until it is by the boards. I bet a micro-analysis of the air mass over central NY to central VT-NH around 12z tomorro will show a frontalysis in that region with colder air that was "supposed" to be in here, stalled in that vicinity. It kind of makes sense with trend... The precipiating events have all been on the warm side of the mean polar boundary thus far this season - only one on the cold, you guessed it ... Halloween. This all said, it isn't exactly a warm system. The thermal fields show it being a cold miserable rain, and the total period should get snow in the air for most, albeit late ...particularly should that weak Norlun-like trough lag back like most guidance has it. I just can't endorse a very good system at this point, and will await to be pleasantly surprised. The rotten airmass started appearing a couple of days ago. Remember we commented about how warm it was at 2M...even well north of the low? I responded that the NAM was not allowing for good cold draining and almost looked like all the cold was behind a secondary front. That was a red flag for lower elevations anyways. It comes down to a simple rule that played out on December 7th. Southern stream systems + no blocking = NW trend. Plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It comes down to a simple rule that played out on December 7th. Southern stream systems + no blocking = NW trend. Plain and simple. Totally agree. This is why I was never too interested. What a fail. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 No snow yet to be found with the system...I'm thinking somewhere between 03 and 06z the west southern tier of ny will be the first to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Where the hell is Kevin? Probably swinging from the rafters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 it's 41 degrees at 2119 ft in Wellsville, NY...lol terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The rotten airmass started appearing a couple of days ago. Remember we commented about how warm it was at 2M...even well north of the low? I responded that the NAM was not allowing for good cold draining and almost looked like all the cold was behind a secondary front. That was a red flag for lower elevations anyways. It comes down to a simple rule that played out on December 7th. Southern stream systems + no blocking = NW trend. Plain and simple. Yeah, all seems reasonable to me - it's just that the "rotted air mass" ...double cfront, Imo, should have been modeled better by even last Sunday. That's a pretty significant error that by Tuesday we still had an anchored polar high appeal to things. This just sucks... Ryan, I wouldn't call it a fail until tomorrow evening - though I admit that I would be a bit surprised if that were not the case just the same... haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'll find out how my cousins do at 2300' in Andover ...may be our there also next week some time. My aunt used to live maybe 500 feet up the road from that KELZ airport. 39.6/34.9 here now...... from my cheap thermometer so assume some small error certainly in the dew point. it's 41 degrees at 2119 ft in Wellsville, NY...lol terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like another 12/8 like storm-just no cold air to be found... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 cooling slightly but man its warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 How much is climo factored into the models vs the actual observations. It seems as though every model has been running too cold in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 18z GFS even warmer and wetter... our QPF keeps ticking up across NNE... now widespread 1/4-1/2" liquid equiv but I think with the warm boundary layer is going to cost us a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 How much is climo factored into the models vs the actual observations. It seems as though every model has been running too cold in this pattern. Snow cover blows and despite the meager solar insolation..this will have an impact on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Totally agree. This is why I was never too interested. What a fail. Ugh. There was some blocking though ... and as said, up through Tuesday it contributed to a polar high in a better position. Granted ... not now, but this dismantling of features all happened too late to give the models much credit - they sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GFS brings is damned close for Monday. Oh what's the use.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Tim Kelley just called me for a snow conditions update and we were chatting about this upcoming storm and how warm it is still out there. He assured me it should be pretty much all snow on the mountain but we may start as rain here in the village given current wet bulbs. He was also leaning towards slightly higher amounts further north where the sagging cold frontal boundary could enhance snowfall rates for a time on the far NW axis of the precipitation shield (potentially even north of this location), translating across northern VT and NH into Maine. Also weak deformation and maybe inverted trough-like set up could keep light to very light snows going across the northern tier for most of tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 18z GFS even warmer and wetter... our QPF keeps ticking up across NNE... now widespread 1/4-1/2" liquid equiv but I think with the warm boundary layer is going to cost us a little bit. Not to mention the best correlation of lift and snow growth keeps getting shoved to the NW. Some of the areas that do stay cold enough to snow, look like they might get garbage snow ratios out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Not to mention the best correlation of lift and snow growth keeps getting shoved to the NW. Some of the areas that do stay cold enough to snow, look like they might get garbage snow ratios out of it. Par for the course this winter...lol. Shouldn't expect anything less from December '11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What I find amazing and you know its bad when a low tracks south of the SNE mainland in late December, and yet it is still warm enough in NNE for BTV to say that accumulations will mostly be only on grassy surfaces in the valleys with not much road impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Tim Kelley just called me for a snow conditions update and we were chatting about this upcoming storm and how warm it is still out there. He assured me it should be pretty much all snow on the mountain but we may start as rain here in the village given current wet bulbs. He was also leaning towards slightly higher amounts further north where the sagging cold frontal boundary could enhance snowfall rates for a time on the far NW axis of the precipitation shield (potentially even north of this location), translating across northern VT and NH into Maine. Also weak deformation and maybe inverted trough-like set up could keep light to very light snows going across the northern tier for most of tomorrow. What are you running for temps? We have cooled pretty quick here already down to 32F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I noticed Plattsburgh's DP is 27 now...Can't knock that. 18z GFS even warmer and wetter... our QPF keeps ticking up across NNE... now widespread 1/4-1/2" liquid equiv but I think with the warm boundary layer is going to cost us a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 idk...i feel like I should be in decent spot...but the boundary layer is torched...925mb are 2C...and the surface is 40. How much of snow will be lost to cooling the bl and to crappy ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Correct for the GFS error of forming the surface low way out on the Gulf Stream and you are shoveling Monday. GFS brings is damned close for Monday. Oh what's the use.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Tim Kelley just called me for a snow conditions update and we were chatting about this upcoming storm and how warm it is still out there. He assured me it should be pretty much all snow on the mountain but we may start as rain here in the village given current wet bulbs. He was also leaning towards slightly higher amounts further north where the sagging cold frontal boundary could enhance snowfall rates for a time on the far NW axis of the precipitation shield (potentially even north of this location), translating across northern VT and NH into Maine. Also weak deformation and maybe inverted trough-like set up could keep light to very light snows going across the northern tier for most of tomorrow. Schweet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Things are slowly coming around.... 38.3 now. Schweet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I know it's early to already know the result, but I probably hugged the euro and SREFs too hard. I know I started poo-pooing it this morning, but I went against my gut and may have been too bullish this morning. Even 1-3 in ORH is likely not gonna come close..I wouldn't be shocked if they get a coating. I wrote it off for me yesterday and Kevin early this morning..and thought I might be too negative, but not nearly negative enough. Hopefully GC ad Dave can pull off an inch or two, but the only way it could be better is if we have a huge omega burst. There is a chance that Rt corridor above 1000ft could pull of an advisory. Those thoughts I put forth this morning on why this gave me pause are probably going to happen for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I know it's early to already know the result, but I probably hugged the euro and SREFs too hard. I know I started poo-pooing it this morning, but I went against my gut and may have been too bullish this morning. Even 1-3 in ORH is likely not gonna come close..I wouldn't be shocked if they get a coating. I wrote it off for me yesterday and Kevin early this morning..and thought I might be too negative, but not nearly negative enough. Hopefully GC ad Dave can pull off an inch or two, but the only way it could be better is if we have a huge omega burst. There is a chance that Rt corridor above 1000ft could pull of an advisory. Those thoughts I put forth this morning on why this gave me pause are probably going to happen for many of us. Well in the heat of things you were still trying to keep everyone in check and i could see you being cautious with your post to everyone that were looking thru there weenie goggles on this event and letting them know the areas that you thought were going to be on the fence, The models took a pretty big shift NW today that i don't really think alot expected it to go that far NW, But in this crap pattern there is really nothing to stop it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Even though it's BKN/OVC here winds are light enough that we've seen some radiational cooling. I'm not sure how much of my current 37.6F is "real" right now. The Gunstock station at 1350ft is still sitting at 40.5F/34.0F with W winds gusting to 15mph. The entire Mt Wash auto road is 32F or lower now so hopefully that bodes well for here after midnight. your avatar shows 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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