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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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Preach brutha. We need to be humble when we score (which we have been doing lately), but we do get screwed in those KU coastals quite a bit and it really sucks.

Same up here.... our big snowfalls aren't going to be found on the KU list (except for March 2001 and Valentines Day 2007) but for the most part for us to get hit, its not a big deal for the larger population in the I95 coastal plain.

But anyway, another nickel and dime storm coming up so hopefully we can tack a couple more inches to the seasonal totals. Hard to believe our biggest snowfall so far was 9" on Thanksgiving...and nothing has even come close to that amount since then.

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Remember even yesterday you and I were talking about a low to mid 20s higher ratio snowfall up this way in the north... well this will be wet snow even all the way up here. 43F right now at 800ft two counties south of Canada.

One can only do so much to compensate for garbage... If the models are THAT bad, they are just that bad while there's no crystal ball here, either. Hell, even the wonderboy Euro flagged this thing cold yesterday - now it decides at a single day lead to change the sensible impact so dramatically - ....that's really a sign more than anything that there are certain synoptic regimes that still challenge the models severely. Other times, things would be better behaved.

All that said ...geesh, we're all speaking as though this system were past tenths - there's risk in doing that just the same.

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I know absolutely no one cares but that Monday set up has upslope snow written all over it, from here to skierinRangley, as the late coastal low tugs some NW flow along with moisture from a weak clipper like system to the north in Canada.

Thats not true, I know Ray cares!

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I know absolutely no one cares but that Monday set up has upslope snow written all over it, from here to skierinRangley, as the late coastal low tugs some NW flow along with moisture from a weak clipper like system to the north in Canada.

yes, ive been watching that also. Maybe worth the drive to stowe or somewhere in VT if that happens.....

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:whistle: :whistle: :whistle:

MAZ002-230915-

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN...

SHELBURNE

346 PM EST THU DEC 22 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST

FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG

AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. COOLER WITH

LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH

AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE

AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF

1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT

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I am a bit concerned that even wet bulbs are above freezing right now all the way up here. I'm not sure where the CAA is going to come from but we're going to need it.

Its 37/27 at 1,600ft so that should wet bulb to freezing but down here in the valley at 800ft it was 43/34 an hour ago, though we've gotten to 36/32 now but that's still a wet bulb above freezing.

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Same up here.... our big snowfalls aren't going to be found on the KU list (except for March 2001 and Valentines Day 2007) but for the most part for us to get hit, its not a big deal for the larger population in the I95 coastal plain.

But anyway, another nickel and dime storm coming up so hopefully we can tack a couple more inches to the seasonal totals. Hard to believe our biggest snowfall so far was 9" on Thanksgiving...and nothing has even come close to that amount since then.

At least my current location gets me a good dump from about half the NE's KU storms. Despite averaging 135"/year, my 10 years in Ft. Kent gave me decent snow in just one KU event, the April 1982 blizzard.

I'll take pennies at this point; since the nice 11/23 storm I've yet to have even 0.1" snow. My total for Oct-Nov is my largest here in 14 years; my snowless streak to open Dec is now twice as long as in any other Dec.

From another post: I only got one of MEckster's maps, and was hoping it was the 4" prob, as indeed it was.. Having only 5-10% of getting even 1" would be a downer.

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Unbelievable that something can shift that much in one day. Yesterday ORH was in the 85% prob for an inch and 35% prob for 4". Now ORH is in the 15% prob for an inch and no where near the 4" probs. Crazy.

Pete actually looks borderline on the nam and euro now....close for him between a C-1 event and a nice 3-4" advisory snowfall. That's how I felt for mby yesterday.

it really hasnt shifted all that much, but the thermal profiles sure have

where is the cold air?

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I am a bit concerned that even wet bulbs are above freezing right now all the way up here. I'm not sure where the CAA is going to come from but we're going to need it.

Its 37/27 at 1,600ft so that should wet bulb to freezing but down here in the valley at 800ft it was 43/34 an hour ago, though we've gotten to 36/32 now but that's still a wet bulb above freezing.

Tip said it best.

Looking around at area DPs and comparing to MOS products… unilaterally too cold with DPs compared to current.

That means the lead up to this thing is already busting too cold. Ha!

Very difficult situation at best and the 12z models ran too warm. It's warmer everywhere.

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I know absolutely no one cares but that Monday set up has upslope snow written all over it, from here to skierinRangley, as the late coastal low tugs some NW flow along with moisture from a weak clipper like system to the north in Canada.

Some of us care PF, even if we’re in the minority. I was just looking at my NWS point forecast for tonight, and even this far north they’ve got a rain/snow mix for our elevation (~500’) before it goes over to all snow, so clearly things are coming in a bit warm. Looks like all snow above 1,000’ though.

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