weatherMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 18z NAM is Euro like. Congrats! Looks like N ORH and MRG/MPM might switch around 10-11z on the nam but ORH flips after 12z where there's maybe .05 qpf left...I'll be lucky to see flakes. My cousins in Merrimack,NH yesterday asked me what they thought and I said 2-3"...but now I'm thinking they might be too far south. Maybe a coating-1"? Their only at 230' so they have no help from that. I told them if lucky they might get a delay tomorrow, I even thought I had a chance. Now I'll be happy to get a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What's with the NAM giving 2X more qpf to BTV than me? Hope it's not catching onto some drier air that will prevent the precip from spreading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 AO is still negative today by about -1 to 1.5 rising sharply but may hold on enuf IMO http://raleighwx.ame...comparison.html What's the NAO? I believe that is your blocking source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 NAM is even a good chunk of rain for ORH. Not even close here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 dp down to 36 here, that has to bode well further upstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Nam has some lingering moisture after 13z or so until 18z...surface temps get near 40F but maybe some non accumulating -sn or flurries for eastern areas. It's all we've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 NAM is even a good chunk of rain for ORH. Not even close here in CT. The NAM looks like a 12z flip at ORH? Maybe an hour window for -sn? I know what happened last time there was a 1 hour window for snow, so I'm not holding out too much hope here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This winter is turning into something fun. Knowing you get nothing makes it easier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 18z NAM is brutal for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What's with the NAM giving 2X more qpf to BTV than me? Hope it's not catching onto some drier air that will prevent the precip from spreading east. We get screwed anyway possible this winter. 55/43 here in Westchester, absurd ob at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Closeup of SREF probs for 4" and 1" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 44.3F/34F 1.4F temp drop past hour http://www.metrocast.net/~wxeye/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I may actually start off as rain on the NAM. My sfc Tw is 1.4C 9z tomorrow with H95 at 0C. This will probably end up a 10:1 wet plastering of 3-5" for the Lakes Region barring an even further trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Unbelievable that something can shift that much in one day. Yesterday ORH was in the 85% prob for an inch and 35% prob for 4". Now ORH is in the 15% prob for an inch and no where near the 4" probs. Crazy. Pete actually looks borderline on the nam and euro now....close for him between a C-1 event and a nice 3-4" advisory snowfall. That's how I felt for mby yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Unbelievable that something can shift that much in one day. Yesterday ORH was in the 85% prob for an inch and 35% prob for 4". Now ORH is in the 15% prob for an inch and no where near the 4" probs. Crazy. tis the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 18z NAM is brutal for SNE. I'm very happy I made the most of it last weekend with the snowmen and all....what a freaking cluster this winter is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad River Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This winter is turning into something fun. Knowing you get nothing makes it easier.... That's the spirit! Made me laugh. It's been so tough up here in North Central VT. We're craving snow and the backcountry calls my name, but there's just nothing yet. At least the couple of inches coming up will brighten things and make Christmas white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Wow is it a lot warmer up here than I thought it would be today... I think this may be a wet snow even up here. Freezing level is at like 3,000ft right now as even 2,200ft is 36F at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 LOL on the SREF's. Bullseye is like 10 miles NW of me. Too bad its a .5" event not a 2" QPF event. You guys down south are not going to miss much even if I get a 6" plaster. I will keep my weather station on all night and high res camera so you can see how the higher elevations are cooling off. http://www.metrocast.net/~wxeye/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 i actually would find it convulsively funny if this came west ... like in August, when a cool front gets to the Cape and Islands, then bulges back NW to ALB. 57F at ORH where 2 days prior dreams of 3-5" Holiday heaven were being fed. L m f a o i that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 LOL on the SREF's. Bullseye is like 10 miles NW of me. Too bad its a .5" event not a 2" QPF event. You guys down south are not going to miss much even if I get a 6" plaster. I will keep my weather station on all night and high res camera so you can see how the higher elevations are cooling off. http://www.metrocast.net/~wxeye/ Uh....I think just about everyone would love 6" right now..even 3". I was pumped to get my 1-2" before even that went down the tubes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 LOL on the SREF's. Bullseye is like 10 miles NW of me. Too bad its a .5" event not a 2" QPF event. You guys down south are not going to miss much even if I get a 6" plaster. I will keep my weather station on all night and high res camera so you can see how the higher elevations are cooling off. http://www.metrocast.net/~wxeye/ The bottom one is 1" probs...the top one is the 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 i actually would find it convulsively funny if this came west ... like in August, when a cool front gets to the Cape and Islands, then bulges back NW to ALB. 57F at ORH where 2 days prior dreams of 3-5" Holiday heaven were being fed. L m f a o i that happened. Remember even yesterday you and I were talking about a low to mid 20s higher ratio snowfall up this way in the north... well this will be wet snow even all the way up here. 43F right now at 800ft two counties south of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Remember even yesterday you and I were talking about a low to mid 20s higher ratio snowfall up this way in the north... well this will be wet snow even all the way up here. 43F right now at 800ft two counties south of Canada. I'm just happy my low level flow turns NE and it isn't one of those NW CAA deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looking at the SREF ...it is just about right now from here to your area in NH.... Any more northward shifting and we have problems.LOL I may actually start off as rain on the NAM. My sfc Tw is 1.4C 9z tomorrow with H95 at 0C. This will probably end up a 10:1 wet plastering of 3-5" for the Lakes Region barring an even further trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Man what a change from this morning. As soon as I saw those maps from the euro...it was toast near and south of the Pike. Hopefully those in nrn ORH county can squeak out 2" or so. NAM looked pretty good for sw NH so maybe adjacent areas can get a 3 spot or better. I should have let me gut dictate better. It just had that feeling since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah, but I had many storms in the Eastern days where I had to settle for flurries or cirrus while SNE raged. Many of my good snowstorms get "forgotten" since they often don't meet the NESIS criteria. If a KU HECS is rocking DC-PHL-NYC-BOS it's often just a ho-hum event at best up here. That's not sour grapes though...I'm just telling it like it is. Preach brutha. We need to be humble when we score (which we have been doing lately), but we do get screwed in those KU coastals quite a bit and it really sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Man what a change from this morning. As soon as I saw those maps from the euro...it was toast near and south of the Pike. Hopefully those in nrn ORH county can squeak out 2" or so. NAM looked pretty good for sw NH so maybe adjacent areas can get a 3 spot or better. I should have let me gut dictate better. It just had that feeling since yesterday. EC ens look a little cooler than the op...maybe that can save parts of ORH county? It's a juicy ens run though. 0.50" gets up to Plymouth, NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 EC ens look a little cooler than the op...maybe that can save parts of ORH county? It's a juicy ens run though. 0.50" gets up to Plymouth, NH. How about Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 How about Monday? Too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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