moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It's tough. Snow is like crack for many of us...we just can't get enough of the white stuff. We could get a 20" snowstorm and then 12hrs later we're looking for the next one. We're in a big enough region with varying orographic terrain and coastline that there's going to be big winners and big losers every time. Jan 12 of this year was about as close to a regionwide slam dunk as you can get. In a perfect weather world we'd all get big snows and white Christmases. It's best to be humble when you "win" and keep your head up when you "lose". I believe this is typed by a current "winner". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'm cautiously optimistic for several inches. Might be non accumulating slop to start. I'm trying to will the dew point to drop about five more degrees. LOL What are you expecting for yourself at this point, Rick? I think you should be well situated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I believe this is typed by a current "winner". Yeah, but I had many storms in the Eastern days where I had to settle for flurries or cirrus while SNE raged. Many of my good snowstorms get "forgotten" since they often don't meet the NESIS criteria. If a KU HECS is rocking DC-PHL-NYC-BOS it's often just a ho-hum event at best up here. That's not sour grapes though...I'm just telling it like it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Hope not ..I hadn't thought much about PL. I'm at the same latitude as Nashua, NH basically but way west so maybe some WSW to ENE gradient on this helps. But when it starts, the BL here is still sketchy so I expect to waste some qpf initially. i would rather be in C NH for this one. i wonder how the mid levels treat rick out in knox...pingers perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 less than 1 inch of snow has fallen in southern quebec so far. you are not alone. when you look at the eastern 2/3 of the continent, only a small area of new england has been snowing in this pattern, and that is remarkable, those people who are seeing snow i hope they realize just how lucky they have been this year. i gave up on this winter about 2 weeks ago. the stats show that if we torch in fall, we have a **** winter. its the lack of cold air which is killing everyone that is at the heart of this problem. the remarkable thing is I have been lucky to see snow this fall. I am over 25" to date. Even at 1100 feet in Central NH I have nothing to show for it. Absolutely nothing in the north facing woods. Only a few plow piles around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Not liking the warm BL temps at all around here. Even here well clear of the 1K mark in the central Berks it's in the mid to upper 40s. Dew points also running in the mid to high 30s. I was expecting low 40s today. Big red flag. I have a hard time thinking that even I won't start as rain (or a sloppy rain/snow mix that doesn't accumulate) for a while before flipping to genuine snow. If so, this will cut the accumulations down from 3-5" to 1-3" for me. Latitude and elevation will be necessary for this one in these parts. The winners look to be southern Greens (2.4K in Woodford FTW) and Monads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I . Gene, above 1100ft in Bridgewater, may make out like a bandit. If I do I will be the only one in my town prepared for it. No one at the general store seems to have any idea of a plowable snow. Most saw last nights weather reports of a possible 1-2" at most snowfall. No watches or warnings out. Channel 9 (Manchester) still had us in the 1-2" at midday. Elevation and how fast I cool off will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Least Seasonal Snowfalls for KBOS: 8.2 1936-1937 10.3 1972-1973 12.7 1979-1980 14.9 1994-1995 15.5 1988-1989 17.0 1931-1932 18.1 1985-1986 19.1 1990-1991 Anyone have stats for when/what happened 1936-1937? . Those stats are off I think. 1936-7 is listed on the NWS site as 9.0 Also, 2006-7 had 17.1 putting it ahead in futility of 1985-6. What about 2001-02 15.1? That would edge ahead of 1988-89. Going into the 3/18 event, BOS had something like 5-6 inches....we almost did it. Sad that I have experienced so many of those winters...thankfully in LA for the 1979-80, 1985-6, and 1988-9. LA was cold in 1988-9 with 4 inches of snow in the San Fernando valley during an event in early February 1989. I had to go to Santa Barbara the day before in the pre dawn and there was ice in the median of the 101 Freeway. I did a 10 mile run in Santa Barbara the next day with temps in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 . Those stats are off I think. 1936-7 is listed on the NWS site as 9.0 Also, 2006-7 had 17.1 putting it ahead in futility of 1985-6. What about 2001-02 15.1? That would edge ahead of 1988-89. Going into the 3/18 event, BOS had something like 5-6 inches....we almost did it. Sad that I have experienced those stats explain why I have this perception that we never got off as many snow days as todays kids...it never flucking snowed! Working with no shirt on upstairs in the office. So warm up here with no wind that it's in the mid 70s with all the windows open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 No surprise, but the 15z SREFs bump north...closer to the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Not liking the warm BL temps at all around here. Even here well clear of the 1K mark in the central Berks it's in the mid to upper 40s. Dew points also running in the mid to high 30s. I was expecting low 40s today. Big red flag. I have a hard time thinking that even I won't start as rain (or a sloppy rain/snow mix that doesn't accumulate) for a while before flipping to genuine snow. If so, this will cut the accumulations down from 3-5" to 1-3" for me. Latitude and elevation will be necessary for this one in these parts. The winners look to be southern Greens (2.4K in Woodford FTW) and Monads. I agree with everything you've said. Every degree is more time spent on the wet not white side. No surprise, but the 15z SREFs bump north...closer to the EC. SREF's have provided no value in this event to date. They've been wrong, and behind considerably the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 is there decent confluence over new england during this system? as i recall in almost all events with confluence models tend to overdue northward extent of QPF even close in. other concerns i have is wether SNH SW maine will be cold enough for a blue bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Least Seasonal Snowfalls for KBOS: 8.2 1936-1937 10.3 1972-1973 12.7 1979-1980 14.9 1994-1995 15.5 1988-1989 17.0 1931-1932 18.1 1985-1986 19.1 1990-1991 Anyone have stats for when/what happened 1936-1937? . Those stats are off I think. 1936-7 is listed on the NWS site as 9.0 Also, 2006-7 had 17.1 putting it ahead in futility of 1985-6. What about 2001-02 15.1? That would edge ahead of 1988-89. Going into the 3/18 event, BOS had something like 5-6 inches....we almost did it. Sad that I have experienced Got the seasonal stats off NOAA: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowbos.html That's correct Fella... the NOAA climate page only goes up to 1996, so 2006-7 17.1 and 2001-2 15.1 should definitely be on there, added below: 8.2 1936-1937 10.3 1972-1973 12.7 1979-1980 14.9 1994-1995 15.1 2001-2002 15.5 1988-1989 17.0 1931-1932 17.1 2006-2007 18.1 1985-1986 19.1 1990-1991 Would be interested to hear if anyone knows how 1936-1937 unfolded... Also, is there any record of October > Nov-Dec snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The only thing stopping the north trend now is time. Vim Toot is safe. And mother nature continues to sh*t on the wastrels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yup... I'm cooked. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The only thing stopping the north trend now is time. Vim Toot is safe. And mother nature continues to sh*t on the wastrels. nah confluence can stop it my friend...or cause the models to over due it IMO. lets advect some drier dp's into SW maine and cross our fingers http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=16# i wonder if the mid levels will be warmer in C/ E NY. alos i wonder if we can drain some cooler dews thanks to confluent flow ... i think SNH/SW maine could see a healthy snow dump in am with N 1/2 of middle /essex counties a wild card area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Got the seasonal stats off NOAA: http://www.erh.noaa....te/snowbos.html That's correct Fella... the NOAA climate page only goes up to 1996, so 2006-7 17.1 and 2001-2 15.1 should definitely be on there, added below: 8.2 1936-1937 10.3 1972-1973 12.7 1979-1980 14.9 1994-1995 15.1 2001-2002 15.5 1988-1989 17.0 1931-1932 17.1 2006-2007 18.1 1985-1986 19.1 1990-1991 Would be interested to hear if anyone knows how 1936-1937 unfolded... Also, is there any record of October > Nov-Dec snowfall? It looks like the only one in dispute is 1936-7 which is listed here as 9 inches. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bossnw.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 SREF's have provided no value in this event to date. They've been wrong, and behind considerably the other guidance. They've played catch up a lot lately...to the point where you can't really put much stock in them until 24hrs out. The ARW/RSM members were correctly in the north camp though while the ETA/NMM members were well south. I usually like to see what their individual members are doing rather than focusing on the mean. Love'em or hate'em, they do have some value at times and Will has talked about their QPF verification before. I'm not sure how long ago that 2nd place ranking goes back though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 nah confluence can stop it my friend...or cause the models to over due it IMO. lets advect some drier dp's into SW maine and cross our fingers Confluence runs like a scared doe on the heels of the SE ridge pumping up ahead of any system this year. We need blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'm beginning to freak out..... lol. Just bend over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 1979 baby! Big tornado in SNE Big October snow in SNE My having no clue Shoot me now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Confluence runs like a scared doe on the heels of the SE ridge pumping up ahead of any system this year. We need blocking. AO is still negative today by about -1 to 1.5 rising sharply but may hold on enuf IMO http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zAOcomparison.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I wonder if I will see any flakes? It would be nice to get a coating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Not liking the warm BL temps at all around here. Even here well clear of the 1K mark in the central Berks it's in the mid to upper 40s. Dew points also running in the mid to high 30s. I was expecting low 40s today. Big red flag. I have a hard time thinking that even I won't start as rain (or a sloppy rain/snow mix that doesn't accumulate) for a while before flipping to genuine snow. If so, this will cut the accumulations down from 3-5" to 1-3" for me. Latitude and elevation will be necessary for this one in these parts. The winners look to be southern Greens (2.4K in Woodford FTW) and Monads. The euro boundary layer was a big red flag this morning when I saw that. That's what gave me pause. Then the NAM came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 After following weather for 30 years, almost every storm has a suprise, hopefully tonight into tom will have some good ones. Time for now casting and meso model watching. Good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 1979 baby! Big tornado in SNE Big October snow in SNE My having no clue Shoot me now You'll probably get an inch or two anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 18z NAM is Euro like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 AO is still negative today by about -1 to 1.5 rising sharply but may hold on enuf IMO http://raleighwx.ame...comparison.html He means blocking downstream of the northeast (IE some semblance of a west -NAO) not the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 1979 baby! Big tornado in SNE Big October snow in SNE My having no clue Shoot me now True, but no doubt these are statistically silly connections here: 1979 Windsor CT F4, Oct 3 1979 total 12.7" monthly snowfall: 1979 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 T 2.0 0.4 6.5 3.6 T 0.0 0.0 12.7 (I know this is off topic, I'll stop with the climo ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like by the time 850s cool the precip is gone, hoping for a big bust for ya'll up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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