CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yum! Ice crystals which are my all time favorite along with snow needles.........looks good for you Scooter, you have logged many hours this season breaking down this horrific pattern you deserve it. I have come to grips with the fact that I will not see a single solitary snowflake this entire upcoming period. You'll probably seen some flakes if not maybe a little more at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nam has really turned significantly colder over its last two runs Actually should rephrase that. The low levels look more like I thought they would/should. Mid levels are a bit milder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The nam gives most people around the pike 3" I would think (maybe 4" for Will?)...It gives me .5 qpf before the lingering snows and with low 8:1 ratios I would think I could get 3" if the nam was right. The other good think about the nam if it were to verify is the periodic -sn after allows temperatures to stay in the mid 30s and not torch into the mid 40s and torch away all the snow like 18z did. Jackpot for you folks near the Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Kuchera clown map for the NAM is pretty decent...the other one is even better but its usually less realistic than this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 You're toast. If not Friday then on the front end of the next one. Too bad because it would have been a feast.. You should double down. Messenger is painted into a corner right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Jackpot for you folks near the Pike? I think you could do pretty good all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Jackpot for you folks near the Pike? Maybe, but I'm sure you'll do fine and inevitably come in with 3.7" while I get 1.2" or something. That snowmap Will posted is what I would hope will happen...widespread 2-3" on either side of the pike with jackpots of 4". That would be nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Maybe, but I'm sure you'll do fine and inevitably come in with 3.7" while I get 1.2" or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Kuchera clown map for the NAM is pretty decent...the other one is even better but its usually less realistic than this one Hey Will, could you post the other one to give those of us down here some hope, even if its wrong....thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hey Will, could you post the other one to give those of us down here some hope, even if its wrong....thanks man. Well the other one doesn't really give you anything either...it just enhances all the amounts for people who already got snow in the Kuchera map http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm glad to see this system trending towards a nice snowfall for New England and interior northern Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hey Will, could you post the other one to give those of us down here some hope, even if its wrong....thanks man. :lmao: :weenie: Anyway, hopefully the gfs looks exactly like the nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like something Sam would draw (cough cough Freud cough cough) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well the other one doesn't really give you anything either...it just enhances all the amounts for people who already got snow in the Kuchera map http://wxcaster4.com...OWFALL_84HR.gif Thanks Will, looks like I84 is the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like something Sam would draw (cough cough Freud cough cough) Thought you went to bed I like this output http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=korh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well the other one doesn't really give you anything either...it just enhances all the amounts for people who already got snow in the Kuchera map http://wxcaster4.com...OWFALL_84HR.gif A bit OT, but why does it produce 2 different maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm glad to see this system trending towards a nice snowfall for New England and interior northern Mid Atlantic. ...and let's hope you are right about New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 lol, the other snow map gives a nice 5-6" weenie jackpot for Pete and MIke. They would just hate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Thought you went to bed I like this output http://www.meteor.ia...l=nam&site=korh Yeah, that is cool... the snow makes up for the rain Weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 A bit OT, but why does it produce 2 different maps? I am just a weenie but algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 ...and let's hope you are right about New Years. I'm that transparent huh? lol I am liking that potential still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 A bit OT, but why does it produce 2 different maps? ' Its just using different algorithms with the same model data...snowfall is the hardest thing to predict on the models and there are a lot of algorithms made to try and interpret the data in the most accurate manner. They actually have a 3rd map too using 10 to 1 ratio and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I am just a weenie but algorithm. Well, I would add "divide by 2" in general to that algorithm, but beggars can't be boozers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 And me.... but this may jinx it. LOL lol, the other snow map gives a nice 5-6" weenie jackpot for Pete and MIke. They would just hate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 ' Its just using different algorithms with the same model data...snowfall is the hardest thing to predict on the models and there are a lot of algorithms made to try and interpret the data in the most accurate manner. They actually have a 3rd map too using 10 to 1 ratio and temps. Well, we just have to make it follow the most weenie solution now, don't we Off to bed now. Treadmill beckons at 5AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL, What a dink move by Pete B...I had to laugh though. He had a map of where a potential White Christmas could be. SE MA and the Cape were in the "Keep Dreaming" zone. Man I would have been pissed if I were a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL, What a dink move by Pete B...I had to laugh though. He had a map of where a potential White Christmas could be. SE MA and the Cape were in the "Keep Dreaming" zone. Man I would have been pissed if I were a kid. I wouldn't even rule out the Cape yet anyway because of what might fall on Xmas eve and into Xmas eve night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL, What a dink move by Pete B...I had to laugh though. He had a map of where a potential White Christmas could be. SE MA and the Cape were in the "Keep Dreaming" zone. Man I would have been pissed if I were a kid. While we're on the topic of Pete B...I sent him a tweet about the Friday storm since he seemed so confident about the Sunday storm being snow inland/rain coast. I asked him if he thought there was a potential for a few inches north of the pike...and got this response. lol- elevations may mix. pbouchardon7 Pete Bouchard @SNE_wx Not feeling the GFS love for a cold boundary layer and aggressive qpf...yet. Although the colder 850 temps say elevations may mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I wouldn't even rule out the Cape yet anyway because of what might fall on Xmas eve and into Xmas eve night. I know it...it was just a slap in the face for a weenie....like being in the "washed away" zone on a snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Thought you went to bed I like this output http://www.meteor.ia...l=nam&site=korh I like that site as well cobb data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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