40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 LOL I, as well as he, I'm sure, love the board's obsession with Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Hopefully those nuked SREF members don't verify...lol. Your in a great spot right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 H85 actually briefly closes off tomorrow morning over E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I am starting to think this may be a widespread 3-5 with spot 6 inch amounts for a lot of VT, NH, and ME. Mainly central and southern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 this is eerily similar to watching last week's event unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 When the NAM in a situation like this has you just about 100% rain... you know you're screwed. Gees man, with this nam run im not even sure the highest peaks in Litchfield County can pull off an inch...I was predicting 1-3 there yesterday and 1/2 - 2 in the high parts of the tolland area..probably back off to a coating - 1.5" and slushy coating respectively with my update. Nothing but a little tail end mixing elsewhere in your state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Mentioned that this morning...could amp up the ridge just a bit. Possible, ...though less than certain, the NAM is keying in on that subtle feedback and that causes the low track a tick NW as it rides over said feedback... Also, one thing that folks should think about is that this is the first system this year with a bona fide polar high parked N - this is not exactly a needle threader. That distinction of this is incorrect because of that cold factorization. This is a bit of uncharted water, in the sense that we may be rusty to recall that busting on the cold side has greater probability than not having that polar exertion present at all. The 850-1000mb thickness did edge slightly warmer in CT, but N of the CT/MA boarder that means little for this event. Light to moderate UVM rates combined with initial, conditionally cold atmospheric thickness, combined with having the source from that polar high should ensure that whatever falls will be frozen. As for CT, I would bet that rain start pinging mid way through and ends as an inch on this run, then flurries and grains lag into for several hours - it will transform winter. Don't have to have a foot to tone the appeal that way... although I understand that if the pattern isn't ideal, everyone crows and posts negatively.. but that's another story. Anyway, this is just one run of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like I'm porked...unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GFS actually looks nice for the Monads and down to the nrn tip fo orh county and nrn GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 lol http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnow030.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Your in a great spot right now... He always is....it's been like a protracted showing of the movie "Groundhog Day" for the better part of the past 5 seasons.... 1) Looks great for most of SNE....MPM laments QPF...Scooter consoles him with tales of the mighty mid level features. 2) Looks like Dendrite and MPM got invited to the QPF party, afterall....still looks good for alot of SNE, too. 3)Congrats, Dendrite....where the in the fu** is my toaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GFS is actually a tad cooler at 850 vs. 06z, so that might be why that map is how it is lol http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow030.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 this is eerily similar to watching last week's event unfold. Hopefully this amping up will have a bearing on the late bloomer, later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 He always is....it's been like protracted showing of the movie "Groundhog Day" for the better part of the past 5 seasons.... 1) Looks great for most of SNE....MPM laments QPF...Scooter consoles him with tales of the mighty mid level features. 2) Looks like Dendrite and MPM got invited to the QPF party, afterall....still looks good for alot of SNE, too. 3)Congrats, Dendrite....where the in the fu** is my toaster. I heart you man. I remember growing up in Rockingham County and often being progged to get mostly snow and decent QPF, but when verification time came I was always pissed when I saw the higher totals end up to my north. I've definitely been on a lucky streak, but it all evens out eventually. When I'm smoking cirrus and you're raking up 25" in a HECS from a coastal front you won't care about the 3-4" I get from a putrid SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 He always is....it's been like a protracted showing of the movie "Groundhog Day" for the better part of the past 5 seasons.... 1) Looks great for most of SNE....MPM laments QPF...Scooter consoles him with tales of the mighty mid level features. 2) Looks like Dendrite and MPM got invited to the QPF party, afterall....still looks good for alot of SNE, too. 3)Congrats, Dendrite....where the in the fu** is my toaster. You summed it up quite well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 the window of opportunity on this thing is pretty short for those places that actually stand a chance in SNE. i'm losing confidence. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 When the NAM in a situation like this has you just about 100% rain... you know you're screwed. The NAM sucks for many south of ORH and even them. What a POS model in general. I don't know what to think. I do think that nrn ORh county at 1000ft back to GC will do pretty good. 2-4" with maybe a spot 5". ORH seems to be closer.on the fence. I think the Monads and into CNE will do well someone will get 6" or better. If the euro holds serve..I'll would feel better with those amounts (although I don't forecast there anways), but I have this feeling of something bad happening all the way to I-90. I hope not..and hopefully ORH gets 1-3 or something. My worry is that a lack of ageo drain like you said could screw many. Just not a big cold push south. Also, I'm a little worried it might be a 6hr event where most of it is wasted on trying to flip to snow and the last hour or two are just crappy echoes. The DS could race into SNE near 12z..especially near and south of Pike. But there are a few positives too......If we get a weenie mid level fronto band like some models have, that could help cool the column. My guess would be up in the Berks and near Dave into sw NH..but it could extend a little south too. That may precede the main thump of QPF by 1-2 hrs and help those people out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Oh man the NAM just got its arse handed to it by the GFS... that happens everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The NAM sucks for many south of ORH and even them. What a POS model in general. I don't know what to think. I do think that nrn ORh county at 1000ft back to GC will do pretty good. 2-4" with maybe a spot 5". ORH seems to be closer.on the fence. I think the Monads and into CNE will do well someone will get 6" or better. If the euro holds serve..I'll would feel better with those amounts (although I don't forecast there anways), but I have this feeling of something bad happening all the way to I-90. I hope not..and hopefully ORH gets 1-3 or something. My worry is that a lack of ageo drain like you said could screw many. Just not a big cold push south. Also, I'm a little worried it might be a 6hr event where most of it is wasted on trying to flip to snow and the last hour or two are just crappy echoes. The DS could race into SNE near 12z..especially near and south of Pike. But there are a few positives too......If we get a weenie mid level fronto band like some models have, that could help cool the column. My guess would be up in the Berks and near Dave into sw NH..but it could extend a little south too. That may precede the main thump of QPF by 1-2 hrs and help those people out. very much agree. i don't like seeing those mid-level RH values coming down near and just before 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 just for kicks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Wow...this is toaster bath time for NNE southern areas as well. PWM/CON exactly where BOS was sitting vis a vis BL temps 24 hours ago. Unreal. PWM//893817 01909 082913 49070500 CAR//937023 01507 073411 39989998 06000753723 -0711 152709 45060300 06000816745 -3016 123106 37009796 12000724260 -1617 192910 43040099 12000927332 -2317 162911 32999493 18000738549 -0120 180604 40040096 18000846651 00720 193411 27969292 24022999415 00418 160512 38009895 24000837039 -2221 213511 23928989 30004836708 00416 173606 33019693 30000806419 00919 223612 18918686 36003995616 02313 200104 25009689 36000783208 -0318 253513 09878483 42007724221 00815 243612 19979087 42000782613 -1118 283412 05847882 48000665127 01515 280211 13948886 48000812221 -1119 313410 04828181 54000514210 -2715 303407 12958885 54000803111 -1217 323307 03858380 60000572816 -2227 330206 17958987 60000831812 -2218 343005 05858381 BGR//915517 01306 073208 45020300 CON//864419 00510 112916 49070201 06000815211 00511 133007 43040199 06000723334 01212 152812 45060100 12000784153 -0816 182911 39029997 12000705356 -1915 192809 45060099 18000807257 -4717 193107 36009795 18000789235 02218 183502 41040096 24004999037 -0519 180508 33999593 24035999109 02414 160710 39009895 30007868009 00718 170211 29989491 30011866107 00615 173302 34019794 36001915717 01515 220114 20959287 36002743915 04515 213318 25999488 42001794222 -0216 260113 14918886 42000682724 -0716 253213 20949088 48000714234 00117 290112 10878585 48000585316 00114 283309 13948886 54000623517 -1015 313510 08898584 54000483708 -3115 303210 13968886 60000712911 -1920 340107 10898685 60000522419 -3325 333407 21959087 AFA//838326 -0313 043608 40999999 9B6//935013 -1507 062829 49100602 06000836347 -0116 092610 36009895 06000904414 -2009 143116 49070301 12000817327 01117 132818 31009593 12000813849 -3215 192815 47070200 18000784552 01421 162915 26989291 18000716559 01020 193310 44050000 24000654053 02323 203015 21938988 24015949666 02317 160414 45020097 30000713819 01623 203410 16918586 30028967306 -0715 140316 39029997 36000703010 00522 233513 09908282 36001946412 -1417 180118 32029792 42000682713 -1121 253314 03878080 42004964910 -3312 210321 24009589 48000732706 -2919 273213 01878077 48007925834 02513 250225 18989287 54000722607 -1718 283011 01888178 54000816012 -0513 283620 13968987 60000752909 -3716 313015 01888379 60000703111 -2420 323617 14968887 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 OT, GFS is much closer for 12/26 now, as well I kind of suspected as much... This one hurts because it would have meant a white Xmas.......all I wanted was an inch and I prob won't muster that. F8ck you, too, Santa....hoe, hoe , hoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 very much agree. i don't like seeing those mid-level RH values coming down near and just before 12z. That's why I was saying a 6hr QPF bomb that wastes time trying to cool. When it is cold enough..it may only have an hour or so for good steady snows. I could see ORH only getting an inch if that happens, but lets reserve judgment for the euro I guess. I'd feel better if it held serve a bit...but I didn't like the boundary layer on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This winter: Go torch or go home. The way it is until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks better for the southern dacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What is going to happen is clearly that this first system will amp up just enough to preclude me from realizing my dream of a white xmas in a s*it season, but just not quite enough to reel in that Miller B East, later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I wish you all a merry xmas because I prob won't be around much longer, once Bobby gets on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This winter: Go torch or go home. The way it is until further notice. I know some joked about me being crabby yesterday, but being pessimistic is the way to go. That's how it is this winter around here, especially for you and I. I loathe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I know some joked about me being crabby yesterday, but being pessimistic is the way to go. That's how it is this winter around here, especially for you and I. I loathe it. It is what it is and it give me more time to be more balanced vs obsessing and refreshing every 13 seconds for hours on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It is what it is and it give me more time to be more balanced vs obsessing and refreshing every 13 seconds for hours on end. Haha...but we still do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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