wxmanmitch Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 My thinking really hasn't changed much here since last night: 3-5" above 1K, maybe a spot 6" near 2K. The warm BL on the NAM has me a little concerned and may be the reason why BOX is going so low in GC, but I think it may be a bit overdone. Wet bulb and dynamic cooling should do the trick. I think WWAs should be expanded to include all of Berks, S VT, S NH, and N ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This run has me more confident for bigger totals up here. Deep mid level RH and I get some lift in the max dendritic zone between H5-H6. 2m will be cold enough to snow, but if I'm around 32.3F or something I'm not sure if I'll fully realize the better ratios. I think the higher elevations in NW MA/S VT/SW NH will pile it up. Maybe a Socks workplace jackpot in Rindge? what's your elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This thing is juicy and amped, I think in the end the jackpot wil shift nw all day, somewhere from the south central greens east into nh above 1500' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 yeah i like the elevated terrain of C/S VT into C/S NH zone. i'm sure some good totals into the higher terrain of MA as well. the gfs and euro both have a nice tongue of deep mid-level moisture and lift lingering over C NE after most of SNE kinda gets into the DS. those areas should have some decently cold mid-level temps as well to help with SG. my concern for SNE is how quickly does this stuff get out of here? it is rocketing through. kind of like that last event, an hour or two is going to be important, especially for the marginal areas. Yeah that's why places like where Brian lives and CNE are going to do well..better than what QPF says. Part of the reason why I like the rt 2 area because they may not get DS so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 My thinking really hasn't changed much here since last night: 3-5" above 1K, maybe a spot 6" near 2K. The warm BL on the NAM has me a little concerned and may be the reason why BOX is going so low in GC, but I think it may be a bit overdone. Wet bulb and dynamic cooling should do the trick. I think WWAs should be expanded to include all of Berks, S VT, S NH, and N ORH hills. Agreed. I disagree with being overly conservative...there is going to be very strong omega just north of the mix line so I think there will a stripe of advisory snow in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 what's your elevation? I'm halfway up a hill at 615ft...top of my road is about 800-850ft or so. Most of the area in-town is 400-450ft along rt 3 from Franklin to the Tilton outlets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 NAM was moving SE and when nothing followed it at 12z yesterday the gig was up. NAM is on the naughty list with the SREF's IMO. When even MRG isn't defending the state of ski conditions you know it's ugly. I had a very bad feeling looking at the long term in mid november and here we are....let's hope for a miracle because this is a disaster. Ski Vermont (industry trade organization) has been sending gift baskets to on-air meteorologists and personalities to try and entice them to make it sound "not that bad." They did this in past ugly winters, too. The local mets and TV stations are notorious for running their "no snow" stories which definitely does not help the economy across much of the north country... its the same thing when its a beautiful January weekend with fresh snow but its -20F and the on-air meteorologists across the northeast are urging everyone to stay inside and bundle up next to the fire, when instead maybe they could say, "If you dress appropriately you can enjoy the beautiful mid-winter sunshine and fresh snow." Throw us a bone, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Agreed. I disagree with being overly conservative...there is going to be very strong omega just north of the mix line so I think there will a stripe of advisory snow in that region. The only thing I don't like about the euro, is that it still is mild in the lower boundary layer..kind of like the NAM although not as bad. it does give me a little pause..and wonder if this will be one of those forever top-down cooling method. It's weird to see the 1000-850 CT line straddle the 32F isotherm. It doesn't collapse south until after 09z. I just noticed that. The euro loves Brian though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Nah I think winter hill will do fine...weenie ridge may get me by an inch or two, but I have a hard time imagining they get 5" while i get 1.3" or something. As I long as I avoid the mid level warmth, I think 900+ feet will be pretty good in north Worcester. lol, I have to ask, what is weenie ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The only thing I don't like about the euro, is that it still is mild in the lower boundary layer..kind of like the NAM although not as bad. it does give me a little pause..and wonder if this will be one of those forever top-down cooling method. It's weird to see the 1000-850 CT line straddle the 32F isotherm. It doesn't collapse south until after 09z. I just noticed that. The euro loves Brian though. I think you and I agree on those jackpot areas, but I just have that weird feeling with this one. I hope the lift comes in here, and it's not a 6hr omega bomb where it takes forever to cool, while areas to the north are in the deformation area longer and rack it up. Just thinking out loud here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Did the ECM hold serve last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 The only thing I don't like about the euro, is that it still is mild in the lower boundary layer..kind of like the NAM although not as bad. it does give me a little pause..and wonder if this will be one of those forever top-down cooling method. It's weird to see the 1000-850 CT line straddle the 32F isotherm. It doesn't collapse south until after 09z. I just noticed that. The euro loves Brian though. Well perhaps I get skunked with 38F rain...but I think that would be a first in December with 900-925mb temps AOB freezing....but I guess I shouldn't sell this winter short thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Ski Vermont (industry trade organization) has been sending gift baskets to on-air meteorologists and personalities to try and entice them to make it sound "not that bad." They did this in past ugly winters, too. The local mets and TV stations are notorious for running their "no snow" stories which definitely does not help the economy across much of the north country... its the same thing when its a beautiful January weekend with fresh snow but its -20F and the on-air meteorologists across the northeast are urging everyone to stay inside and bundle up next to the fire, when instead maybe they could say, "If you dress appropriately you can enjoy the beautiful mid-winter sunshine and fresh snow." Throw us a bone, haha. I was just looking at the okemo cams, not a dusting of natural snow............nothing bare ground, sickening actually although I think killington okemo and mt snow resorts will get a solid half foot out of this and upslope later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 RGEM is mainly on the NAM page... Best area from northern Cats/Bergs over GC to Socks...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Here is what I mean. I guess the 2-5" would probably be a good guess..but I don't like how it takes forever to cool. I suppose if we have nne-ne winds at 950, that will help cool the east slopes of the Hills too. 06z 09z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well perhaps I get skunked with 38F rain...but I think that would be a first in December with 900-925mb temps AOB freezing....but I guess I shouldn't sell this winter short thus far. Oh no..I don't mean a toaster bath..lol, I'm just trying to see the pros and cons. A very tough forecast for you. 99% of the time, it would be wise to go bullish for the hills. I do agree with your thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Congrats Will on 2-3" ..I'll take my coating and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like just about all rain in CT. NAM is awfully warm. I could see maybe a slushy inch in some of the hill towns at the tail end but it won't be a white Christmas with temps near 40 in the afternoon melting whatever the hills around here see. Looks nice for places up north... especially with some elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The only thing I don't like about the euro, is that it still is mild in the lower boundary layer..kind of like the NAM although not as bad. it does give me a little pause..and wonder if this will be one of those forever top-down cooling method. It's weird to see the 1000-850 CT line straddle the 32F isotherm. It doesn't collapse south until after 09z. I just noticed that. The euro loves Brian though. Omega isn't overly impressive and the northerly drainage won't be impressive either given the relatively weak sfc low and weak ageostrophic flow. I do think places with elevation north of the Pike will be in OK shape... I think south of the Pike it's game over though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Classic earmark in the deep south with Tor watch and severe squall rolling through the area.. Not atypical to get that during a snow event in New England; usually there's a more coherent coastal storm with trail cold front/severe thunder for SE GA and the FL Penn area, but this will do just fine ... and signals that despite the flat appeal at 500mb, that activity means there is probably more amplitude present than immediately discernable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I was just looking at the okemo cams, not a dusting of natural snow............nothing bare ground, sickening actually although I think killington okemo and mt snow resorts will get a solid half foot out of this and upslope later tomorrow. This time around, the TV mets are calling it as it is; it's been basically a snowless winter for ski country. Pathetic, we just had a cold front go through and it's 56.4/47. What is going on lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like just about all rain in CT. NAM is awfully warm. Don't let Kevin see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like just about all rain in CT. NAM is awfully warm. I could see maybe a slushy inch in some of the hill towns at the tail end but it won't be a white Christmas with temps near 40 in the afternoon melting whatever the hills around here see. Looks nice for places up north... especially with some elevation. It may be tough...could be something where Union may beat Kevin by an inch or so...I don't know. He could get a coating or 2". I fear the worst for him...but I hope he doesn't get shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Classic earmark in the deep south with Tor watch and severe squall rolling through the area.. Not atypical to get that during a snow event in New England; usually there's a more coherent coastal storm with trail cold front/severe thunder for SE GA and the FL Penn area, but this will do just fine ... and signals that despite the flat appeal at 500mb, that activity means there is probably more amplitude present than immediately discernable. Mentioned that this morning...could amp up the ridge just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Don't let Kevin see this. He'll just disagree, say I'm an idiot, slantstick his way to 2" and say "I told you so". lol I think our latitude will hurt us. It's just a mild pattern and this isn't a big bomb with wild upward vertical motion. It's a pretty ho-hum thump with a decent (but not crazy) burst of omega as the shortwave rolls through. Wagons north.... I like S VT and the Monadnocks for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It may be tough...could be something where Union may beat Kevin by an inch or so...I don't know. He could get a coating or 2". I fear the worst for him...but I hope he doesn't get shafted. When the NAM in a situation like this has you just about 100% rain... you know you're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GFS is jacked, wow. Much stronger, and more defined low through 18 hrs. Looks to be in a similar position, just stonger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 alot of qpf with the gfs and maybe a little slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Hopefully those nuked SREF members don't verify...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GFS bumped NW of 06z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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