ChrisM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 FOOK ALB going with 0 snow accumulation here, if the ski area needs to stay closed and I can't work I'm literally screwed. Yikes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Same here Strangely I can here, but I can't on my phone. Maybe a DNS propagation issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Roughly speaking the NAM is a disaster. TD snow algo clearly shows the ramifications of it just not pulling together with the cold air sandwiched at different times by warmer air. But it's the NAM, so who knows. This is the winter of our discontent and good eating on jerry's dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Oh man the NAM just got its arse handed to it by the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 same thing happened with me working fine on my computer now Something screwy with thw site? I can't get into the thread on my computer but i csn on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 wow that was weird was getting this 404 error message and was not able to get on here for the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Strangely I can here, but I can't on my phone. Maybe a DNS propagation issue? I could not from my desktop.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 FOOK ALB going with 0 snow accumulation here, if the ski area needs to stay closed and I can't work I'm literally screwed. Yikes!! Ski area employees across NE are in worry mode right now. This event will be good for mood but the reality is several significant (6"+) are needed to really get things going. I have a friend who works for Sugarloaf and she says there is a lot of underemployment at the NNE resorts right now. It's a rough situation because a lot of ski workers are migratory and are counting on the work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Will noticed and I saw it too....Good hit for him and esp Dave. SREFs had a big spread with toaster RSM and ARW members. Maybe stick with euro for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Oh man the NAM just got its arse handed to it by the GFS... NAM was moving SE and when nothing followed it at 12z yesterday the gig was up. NAM is on the naughty list with the SREF's IMO. Ski area employees across NE are in worry mode right now. This event will be good for mood but the reality is several significant (6"+) are needed to really get things going. I have a friend who works for Sugarloaf and she says there is a lot of underemployment at the NNE resorts right now. It's a rough situation because a lot of ski workers are migratory and are counting on the work. When even MRG isn't defending the state of ski conditions you know it's ugly. I had a very bad feeling looking at the long term in mid november and here we are....let's hope for a miracle because this is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 As expected nam bows down to the gfs in another swfe, wow is that a torch run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well if something doesn't change drastically on the Euro today I think we need to put all our eggs in the Christmas storm basket barring some kind of crazy last minute colder solution tonight. Freaking lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Improvement for us.... Wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Think we are honing in on the solution now...as usual go with the Euro/.ensembles...NAM/GFS will wobble from here on in. Think Kevin will be the dividing line...not sure if he gets away with this one or not...but I am still favoring an ORH/Hubbdave to GC 2-5" snow depending on elevation. Over 1,000 feet should get advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think elevation will be mine and Kevin's saving grace to get a slushy accumulation out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 i would think someone with some good elevation could pull a 5 spot out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 i would think someone with some good elevation could pull a 5 spot out of this. Mt Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 i would think someone with some good elevation could pull a 5 spot out of this. I think Will's fav weenie ridge out to Socks and into GC pull it. Pretty good signal for a decent band there. Even Dendrite could do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 My money is on Pete with this event in MA. Also the Monadnock area will do pretty well with better ratios up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 or Mount Washington State Park Mass. ..unless they are too far southwest. Mt Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This system looks very impressive coming out of the Gulf right now, heavy rain and thunderstorms, even a Tornado Watch. Is the system going to be stronger than modeled, and how farth north will it really come? I think this storm still has a lot of questions, and will likely have surprises. I would bet some places see 6 inch amounts, like the Monadnock area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 elevation is always your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 elevation is always your friend. Especially in SWFE's where the lower levels are torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Mt Washington. This run has me more confident for bigger totals up here. Deep mid level RH and I get some lift in the max dendritic zone between H5-H6. 2m will be cold enough to snow, but if I'm around 32.3F or something I'm not sure if I'll fully realize the better ratios. I think the higher elevations in NW MA/S VT/SW NH will pile it up. Maybe a Socks workplace jackpot in Rindge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Pretty mild at 39.6F out there now. I'm banking on cooling/drying things out after dark tonight before the next system closes in before midnight. This system looks very impressive coming out of the Gulf right now, heavy rain and thunderstorms. Is the system going to be stronger than modeled, and how farth north will it really come? I think this storm still has a lot of questions, and will likely have surprises. I would bet some places see 6 inch amounts, like the Monadnock area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 I like weenie ridge for a jackpot over to some place in the berks...they will get the omega bomb and not mix with pellets....plus the elevation will help them get a 31F snow vs 32-33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 NWS doesn't look so bad now with their conservative approach...let's hope the NAM isn't still playing catchup and everything else goes north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I like weenie ridge for a jackpot over to some place in the berks...they will get the omega bomb and not mix with pellets....plus the elevation will help them get a 31F snow vs 32-33F. Looks good for them. Chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think Will's fav weenie ridge out to Socks and into GC pull it. Pretty good signal for a decent band there. Even Dendrite could do it. yeah i like the elevated terrain of C/S VT into C/S NH zone. i'm sure some good totals into the higher terrain of MA as well. the gfs and euro both have a nice tongue of deep mid-level moisture and lift lingering over C NE after most of SNE kinda gets into the DS. those areas should have some decently cold mid-level temps as well to help with SG. my concern for SNE is how quickly does this stuff get out of here? it is rocketing through. kind of like that last event, an hour or two is going to be important, especially for the marginal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks good for them. Chasing? Nah I think winter hill will do fine...weenie ridge may get me by an inch or two, but I have a hard time imagining they get 5" while i get 1.3" or something. As I long as I avoid the mid level warmth, I think 900+ feet will be pretty good in north Worcester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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