dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The WSI conspiracy continues. Lol. Based on other guidance your totals are more near the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Lower end, but looks like around 0.10...maybe a shade more...this is WSI. Brian's qpf is definitely in disagreement with mine over SNE...so not sure what his shows. I have about the same thing for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Based on other guidance your totals are more near the consensus. You using MDA? I found their 24h totals are kind of high...but that doesn't mean its wrong. The SV maps also always seem kind of weenieish. I like the WSI maps being on the lower end since that is usually more realstic anyway. It does have a solid 6h period up by you that gets over 0.25" of qpf. Prob the 0,25" 6 hour line gets up to the southern edge of the Whites. But the 0.375" line is down in ORH, so its a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Its better for S ORH county and Kevin...Kevin still might have some brief issues with BL, but its def better for the people further south. Its starting to hone in on an ORH-SkiMRG jackpot I think. Shocker. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 SV is very weenieish in sharp QPF gradients because it smooths the contours. What an amazingly well timed respite from the seemingly endless suck.....wow. The winter that loves holidays...and only holidays. I'm sure HM will be right about NYE....hell, I'm going on record as calling for a Valentines day MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 SREFs have ticked south a bit. Night guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 SREFs south a tad, but less bullish on the snow probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 06z NAM is similar to 00z...still pretty flat. gets 0.50" to a bit north of ORH. Good run for a lot of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 SV is very weenieish in sharp QPF gradients because it smooths the contours. Yeah it's bad. The storm total snow maps used to be horrible as well, but now they have high def. snow depth maps which are really cool and seemingly more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah it's bad. The storm total snow maps used to be horrible as well, but now they have high def. snow depth maps which are really cool and seemingly more accurate. I'm just bumping this post to get to the next page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 My thoughts on this storm are that there will be a small maxima of 3-6" just north of the mix line....6" will be the extreme exception....if it all...but a solid advisory event is in store for the ORH hills to the Berkshires...and BS NW suburbs are the wildcard....could be 0.5" or 3" in Ray's area. BOS itself could be on the line for 1"....but I think it ends up a bit less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well the GFS came south which is no surprise. Euro is still a little touchy for Kevin, but tad cooler for sure. It looks pretty darn good for Will and points north. My guess is someone pulls 5" near there..maybe 6 closer to Pete/MPM and NH border and possibly into sw NH. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well the GFS came south which is no surprise. Euro is still a little touchy for Kevin, but tad cooler for sure. It looks pretty darn good for Will and points north. My guess is someone pulls 5" near there..maybe 6 closer to Pete/MPM and NH border and possibly into sw NH. Congrats. Winter Hill chase on the Holden/ORH line at 950 feet? Still think I should be fine here just south of that at 843 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Still 3-4 miles north of KORH airport...always big in a SWFE that flirts with Kevin MLK 2010 disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Euro ensembles went south a bit too...dendrite is ready to kill people. But Kevin is looking better. But still living on the edge....jackpot seems to be from ORH county to GC...MPM might start throwing his woodpile around because Pete is looking better for QPF than him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Winter Hill chase on the Holden/ORH line at 950 feet? Still think I should be fine here just south of that at 843 feet. I think you look good there. I just took a quick glance before getting ready. I suppose that you could be like 3-4 and maybe Dave is near the 5" mark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Euro ensembles went south a bit too...dendrite is ready to kill people. But Kevin is looking better. But still living on the edge....jackpot seems to be from ORH county to GC...MPM might start throwing his woodpile around because Pete is looking better for QPF than him. LOL, right through that lovely glass window where he looks out to the cows roaming his property as he drinks coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think you look good there. I just took a quick glance before getting ready. I suppose that you could be like 3-4 and maybe Dave is near the 5" mark? I'd take 3" and run right now. I think Hubbdave is the jackpot at 5" for our board posters, or Pete, could see weenie ridge at 1400-1500 feet getting a 6 spot...but I agree. But I will be happy with whatever I get over 2"...I'd like 3"...but anything better than that is pure gravy to me. I'm not greedy...just want enough for a White Christmas. You are on the one on the line...not me I don't think. BOS is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'd take 3" and run right now. I think Hubbdave is the jackpot at 5" for our board posters, or Pete, could see weenie ridge at 1400-1500 feet getting a 6 spot...but I agree. But I will be happy with whatever I get over 2"...I'd like 3"...but anything better than that is pure gravy to me. I'm not greedy...just want enough for a White Christmas. You are on the one on the line...not me I don't think. BOS is close. There is still that part of me somewhat concerned for you..well maybe not so much you, but south of the Pike towards Kevin. What if the cold doesn't bleed in fast enough? It's not like we have a very sharp front moving in and temps dropping 5 degrees every hour. So yeah, I have a hard time going too bullish for that area. Maybe the yellow flags are unwarranted, but I want to see it tick south a little more. I think 3" seems ok for you right now. That's probably what I would guess at the moment. I also think the lighter snows might end sooner there, than up in your hood and points north. Still think Kev can pull 1-2" perhaps..maybe 3 if the SREFs are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Great discussion guys. Kind of confused with the point and click no accumulation forecast at ORH. Kind of odd. Back to bed for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I have S VT/SW NH/W MA all with 0.50"+...24hr QPF at 48hr. It's almost a carbon copy of the 12z EC ens at the same valid time for me. Euro ensembles went south a bit too...dendrite is ready to kill people. But Kevin is looking better. But still living on the edge....jackpot seems to be from ORH county to GC...MPM might start throwing his woodpile around because Pete is looking better for QPF than him. No wood being tossed. I never expected the jackpot--I had always maintained it would be south of here. I'll stil lhave a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 My p/c calls for up to 1/2" of snow tonight and less than an inch tomorrow. My neighboring VT zone has a WWA up calling for 3-6. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Great discussion guys. Kind of confused with the point and click no accumulation forecast at ORH. Kind of odd. Back to bed for a few hours. no school? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 no school? You will if you go by your NWS forecasts. LOL. THey're giving GC an inch tonight/tomorrow NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHOL...BOYLSTON...BROOKFIELD... FITCHBURG...GARDNER...HARVARD 416 AM EST THU DEC 22 2011 . .TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILFORD...OXFORD...STURBRIDGE... UXBRIDGE...WESTBOROUGH...WORCESTER 416 AM EST THU DEC 22 2011 . .TONIGHT...RAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Lol i know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah--NWS is not buying what this thread is selling. Here's a synopsis of Albany's forecast from their AFD: Seems in synch with BOX's thinking. QPF AMOUNTS...AND HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD CHANGING PTYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. AS WITH THE SYSTEM BACK ON DECEMBER 7TH AND 8TH...THIS LATER POINT REGARDING THE TRANSITION IN PTYPE WILL HOLD THE KEY TO WHICH IF ANY LOCATIONS REACH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. DESPITE BEING A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS AT H7 BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z ACRS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA. FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL CATSKILLS...NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE FORM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THESE AREAS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I know it's the GFS, but I don't like how stubborn it is, for I-90 on south. Part of the reason why I'm still a little hesitant near ans south of I-90. However, the euro is better for that area. Kevin imo still walks the line and I would not expect more than an inch or two. I also think this looks real good for NNE...better than what QPF shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah--NWS is not buying what this thread is selling. Here's a synopsis of Albany's forecast from their AFD: Seems in synch with BOX's thinking. QPF AMOUNTS...AND HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD CHANGING PTYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. AS WITH THE SYSTEM BACK ON DECEMBER 7TH AND 8TH...THIS LATER POINT REGARDING THE TRANSITION IN PTYPE WILL HOLD THE KEY TO WHICH IF ANY LOCATIONS REACH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. DESPITE BEING A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS AT H7 BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z ACRS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA. FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL CATSKILLS...NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE FORM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THESE AREAS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE SNOW. Well there are reasons not to be too bullish, but I think you'll be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well there are reasons not to be too bullish, but I think you'll be ok. I would think there would be bullish, middle of the road, and bearish. NWS is squarely on the bear. Minimal accums in GC/northern ORH. Zero in CT. I'm not saying they're going to wind up being wrong, but it's a completely different take than what's happening in this thread. 43.3/38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 There is still that part of me somewhat concerned for you..well maybe not so much you, but south of the Pike towards Kevin. What if the cold doesn't bleed in fast enough? It's not like we have a very sharp front moving in and temps dropping 5 degrees every hour. So yeah, I have a hard time going too bullish for that area. Maybe the yellow flags are unwarranted, but I want to see it tick south a little more. I think 3" seems ok for you right now. That's probably what I would guess at the moment. I also think the lighter snows might end sooner there, than up in your hood and points north. Still think Kev can pull 1-2" perhaps..maybe 3 if the SREFs are right. I don't know what to think for my area. I'm nervous and worried and scared. Walking the line can sometimes be very good and sometimes very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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