ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Still a solid 3-6hrs faster than the EC op/ens. Yeah I think its prob too fast...its way faster than other guidance. At this point I really do not see a reason to stray too much from the Euro and its ensembles. They've been in the middle of the NAM/GFS tug of war hedging toward GFS. Though it looks like the 00z GFS just went a shade south of the 12z Euro. But SWFEs can have little wobbles...in the end the Euro seems to play them the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 yeah ok. So I go from 55 and a severe thunderstorm to snow 24 hrs later. crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 The slightly south tick is definitely good for people like Kevin in N CT and also the suburbs of BOS because it allows them to get into a bit better cold air drainage in the BL even if they were still cold enough on previous runs in the mid-levels (like Ray's area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The slightly south tick is definitely good for people like Kevin in N CT and also the suburbs of BOS because it allows them to get into a bit better cold air drainage in the BL even if they were still cold enough on previous runs in the mid-levels (like Ray's area). My achilles heel is the BL....seldom have issues within the mid levels......vice versa for Kev. You do not have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Channels 4 and 5 going with the rain snow line pretty far north in Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Channels 4 and 5 going with the rain snow line pretty far north in Mass Yep Boston TV not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yep Boston TV not impressed It wouldnt be the first time they're wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Lets see if the banding really does set up in the white stripe area over the Mass pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 It wouldnt be the first time they're wrong There seems to be a lot of gun shyness in marginal events ever since the 2/10/10 bust on the networks...I can't blame them, but at some point you just gotta go with some risky forecasts...I think that happened in 2/24/10 and then again 10/29/11 this year...this another one. Someone is probably going to get 3-5" and it has to be forecasted....I think the ORH hills to Berkshires are probably the best spot....and you just have to forecast it and hope it works out. There is definitely more advantages to being conservative, but if you are too conservative, that will get you in about as much trouble as being hypster eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 There seems to be a lot of gun shyness in marginal events ever since the 2/10/10 bust on the networks...I can't blame them, but at some point you just gotta go with some risky forecasts...I think that happened in 2/24/10 and then again 10/29/11 this year...this another one. Someone is probably going to get 3-5" and it has to be forecasted....I think the ORH hills to Berkshires are probably the best spot....and you just have to forecast it and hope it works out. There is definitely more advantages to being conservative, but if you are too conservative, that will get you in about as much trouble as being hypster eventually. I am now pretty pumped for you guys. The frontogenesis band is going to bring someone a nice surprise and obvious white Christmas. Also, I usually pay attention when you start getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 I am now pretty pumped for you guys. The frontogenesis band is going to bring someone a nice surprise and obvious white Christmas. Also, I usually pay attention when you start getting excited. Thanks for the kind words HM...the feeling is mutual when you are talking MMWs and such. There is zero doubt this is a risky forecast, but someone is gonna get decent snow out of this...the models are close enough and in general enough agreement that someone will see a nice thump of snow...and it has to be forecasted. Hopefully its in the right spots that we say it will be. BTW you called a New England event around the 23rd way back, right? Lol...****tastic pattern but enough in it to get something with a bit of latitude. Hopefully it works out. Still obviously some nuances that could affect how much of a success or failure it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Thanks for the kind words HM...the feeling is mutual when you are talking MMWs and such. There is zero doubt this is a risky forecast, but someone is gonna get decent snow out of this...the models are close enough and in general enough agreement that someone will see a nice thump of snow...and it has to be forecasted. Hopefully its in the right spots that we say it will be. BTW you called a New England event around the 23rd way back, right? Lol...****tastic pattern but enough in it to get something with a bit of latitude. Hopefully it works out. Still obviously some nuances that could affect how much of a success or failure it is. This year, I wanted to start trying to predict regular winter storms along with the massive ones too with an experimental database that I've created. So far, it has done beautifully in December with identifying the risk dates. It is up to me which database/file to use based on what I see controlling the pattern (or multiple things). December 23rd showed up on most of my signals for the Interior Mid Atlantic and New England. I'm anxiously waiting to see what happens and how far south the snow does get to truly see the success. Winter is faaar from over if the data sets are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This year, I wanted to start trying to predict regular winter storms along with the massive ones too with an experimental database that I've created. So far, it has done beautifully in December with identifying the risk dates. It is up to me which database/file to use based on what I see controlling the pattern (or multiple things). December 23rd showed up on most of my signals for the Interior Mid Atlantic and New England. I'm anxiously waiting to see what happens and how far south the snow does get to truly see the success. Winter is faaar from over if the data sets are correct. Nice, great stuff you present. Still think NYE is in the crosshairs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Euro a touch south like most guidance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Nice, great stuff you present. Still think NYE is in the crosshairs? It is going to be close for New Years. Even though the pattern is downright awful, waves will be free to break across the eastern 2/3s of the CONUS. I am predicting the AO to dip down on 1/8. The state of the Tropical Pacific, currently, reminds me of late Feb of last winter. In fact, it is downright scary how the state of all these GWO / MJO signals are lining up. The pattern then lead to a nice accumulating snow event 2/26-27 with Boston seeing over 5 inches. Looks like Connecticut saw a 1-3" type of ordeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 anyone going to have the euro? lol, or should i wake up in the am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Euro came a tick south and sped up a bit. It's still getting a half inch of liquid up to Socks. Kevin looks safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Euro a touch south like most guidance tonight. thanks will, what impact does it have on 10 miles north/south of the pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 thanks will, what impact does it have on 10 miles north/south of the pike? Its better for S ORH county and Kevin...Kevin still might have some brief issues with BL, but its def better for the people further south. Its starting to hone in on an ORH-SkiMRG jackpot I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 The 21z SREF probs might be pretty good representing the Euro's best snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Euro came a tick south and sped up a bit. It's still getting a half inch of liquid up to Socks. Kevin looks safe. U sure some of that isn't tonight's liquid? It looks less than that to me...but still decent...maybe like 0.35-.0.40 to Socks (his job location as he is not there right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 U sure some of that isn't tonight's liquid? It looks less than that to me...but still decent...maybe like 0.35-.0.40 to Socks (his job location as he is not there right now). does the king give me a flake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It is going to be close for New Years. Even though the pattern is downright awful, waves will be free to break across the eastern 2/3s of the CONUS. I am predicting the AO to dip down on 1/8. The state of the Tropical Pacific, currently, reminds me of late Feb of last winter. In fact, it is downright scary how the state of all these GWO / MJO signals are lining up. The pattern then lead to a nice accumulating snow event 2/26-27 with Boston seeing over 5 inches. Looks like Connecticut saw a 1-3" type of ordeal. Thanks, encouraging. LOL with 80 I already had I forgot about the 2/26 stuff . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 U sure some of that isn't tonight's liquid? It looks less than that to me...but still decent...maybe like 0.35-.0.40 to Socks (his job location as he is not there right now). I have S VT/SW NH/W MA all with 0.50"+...24hr QPF at 48hr. It's almost a carbon copy of the 12z EC ens at the same valid time for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 does the king give me a flake? Eh, I don't think so..maybe. It move out quickly and the BL is bad there, but it could def end as flakes as the BL is always a bad model parameter. The Euro is really cold for Xmas eve though it lost any snow on Xmas eve...but it has highs below freezing for BOS and in the mid 20s in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 I have S VT/SW NH/W MA all with 0.50"+...24hr QPF at 48hr. It's almost a carbon copy of the 12z EC ens at the same valid time for me. The WSI conspiracy continues. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 how does it look around here...Will? Still like .1 to .2 at the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Eh, I don't think so..maybe. It move out quickly and the BL is bad there, but it could def end as flakes as the BL is always a bad model parameter. The Euro is really cold for Xmas eve though it lost any snow on Xmas eve...but it has highs below freezing for BOS and in the mid 20s in the interior. Thanks for keeping it real Will, Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Its better for S ORH county and Kevin...Kevin still might have some brief issues with BL, but its def better for the people further south. Its starting to hone in on an ORH-SkiMRG jackpot I think. And that's not a shocker LOL, but at least Mr IPhone will be happy. Kev to Siri. How much snow for Tolland. Siri to Kev. Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 how does it look around here...Will? Still like .1 to .2 at the 12z? Lower end, but looks like around 0.10...maybe a shade more...this is WSI. Brian's qpf is definitely in disagreement with mine over SNE...so not sure what his shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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