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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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For 12/19/08 I had 8.5" on 0.69" and CON had 6.5" on 0.46".

The problem this time is that temps will be much more marginal. It dropped into the 10s during the middle of that event. We'll be flirting around with 32F.

Yes....memories.

I remember that I got a bit more than you in that first event and I wasn't sure why. I recorded close to 12 but perhaps I was including the very light continuous snow.

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Even though the NAM is more robust, I think better lift and more defined ageostrophic flow actually makes it a better solution. You can see the CAD on it better. A weaker more strung out solution seems to be worse on both fronts.

Getting some precip up into NNE may help out the cold air drainage for you guys too as we wetbulb down over CNE/NNE.
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Even though the NAM is more robust, I think better lift and more defined ageostrophic flow actually makes it a better solution. You can see the CAD on it better. A weaker more strung out solution seems to be worse on both fronts.

Yeah I agree...it's defintely a case of having the lift cooling the column more than if it were further south, but a strung out piece of crap. It flips me at the end too. You obviously don't want it too far north, but there is room to have a little more robust solution..esp in the hills.

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Yeah I agree...it's defintely a case of having the lift cooling the column more than if it were further south, but a strung out piece of crap. It flips me at the end too. You obviously don't want it too far north, but there is room to have a little more robust solution..esp in the hills.

Yes and I think the more defined low helps the ageostrophic flow...when you have a greater pressure difference, the winds will def want to cross the isobars more and we see some good drainage.

I think dendrite had a good point too in having the wetbulbing to the north too enhancing the drainage. The lift is definitely the most important though I think.

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Yes and I think the more defined low helps the ageostrophic flow...when you have a greater pressure difference, the winds will def want to cross the isobars more and we see some good drainage.

I think dendrite had a good point too in having the wetbulbing to the north too enhancing the drainage. The lift is definitely the most important though I think.

There is a fine line with this, as having it much farther north risks a GFS type solution with the moisture cutting off pretty quick.

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Lots of cold air draining in on ne winds in the lower levels. Probably a little upslope enhancement possibly on the ORH hills and Berks too.

Yum! Ice crystals which are my all time favorite along with snow needles.........looks good for you Scooter, you have logged many hours this season breaking down this horrific pattern you deserve it. I have come to grips with the fact that I will not see a single solitary snowflake this entire upcoming period.

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The nam gives most people around the pike 3" I would think (maybe 4" for Will?)...It gives me .5 qpf before the lingering snows and with low 8:1 ratios I would think I could get 3" if the nam was right. The other good think about the nam if it were to verify is the periodic -sn after allows temperatures to stay in the mid 30s and not torch into the mid 40s and torch away all the snow like 18z did.

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