ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM is cold at sfc...57h at ORH is easily snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 SREFs really beefed up probs...even have some 4" probs in SNE now They appear to hold onto the placement of qpf based on the 1" spread, but showing a southern shift on the 4". Suggests to me that they are not pointing to more moisture into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I like where the srefs are for me to pull off 2-3"...the nam I only see out to 51hr but it looks like it may hold serve...maybe slightly N/warmer but 18z was one of the colder runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I sense a further northward adjustment on the 0Z NAM.... I sense this as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Stronger mid-level thermal gradient this run over NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Even though the NAM is more robust, I think better lift and more defined ageostrophic flow actually makes it a better solution. You can see the CAD on it better. A weaker more strung out solution seems to be worse on both fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Not rolling out fast enougjh for me, but looks pretty generous on the qpf and certainly in central/western MA snowy. Not sure how the column looks further south. I think folks in the CT tropics may smile a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 For 12/19/08 I had 8.5" on 0.69" and CON had 6.5" on 0.46". The problem this time is that temps will be much more marginal. It dropped into the 10s during the middle of that event. We'll be flirting around with 32F. Yes....memories. I remember that I got a bit more than you in that first event and I wasn't sure why. I recorded close to 12 but perhaps I was including the very light continuous snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Even though the NAM is more robust, I think better lift and more defined ageostrophic flow actually makes it a better solution. You can see the CAD on it better. A weaker more strung out solution seems to be worse on both fronts. Getting some precip up into NNE may help out the cold air drainage for you guys too as we wetbulb down over CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think NAM outs messenger outside f the restaurant tonight. Looks jucier and colder for the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Even though the NAM is more robust, I think better lift and more defined ageostrophic flow actually makes it a better solution. You can see the CAD on it better. A weaker more strung out solution seems to be worse on both fronts. Yeah I agree...it's defintely a case of having the lift cooling the column more than if it were further south, but a strung out piece of crap. It flips me at the end too. You obviously don't want it too far north, but there is room to have a little more robust solution..esp in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think NAM outs messenger outside f the restaurant tonight. Looks jucier and colder for the pike. It's the NAM outside of 42 hours. That said if I was right for 40 days and wrong for 1.5....congrats on the "win" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Congrats, Rick! For the snowy areas--looks like a good 3-5" deal?? Maybe a higher lolly around Mitch? Possible snowday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yeah I agree...it's defintely a case of having the lift cooling the column more than if it were further south, but a strung out piece of crap. It flips me at the end too. You obviously don't want it too far north, but there is room to have a little more robust solution..esp in the hills. Yes and I think the more defined low helps the ageostrophic flow...when you have a greater pressure difference, the winds will def want to cross the isobars more and we see some good drainage. I think dendrite had a good point too in having the wetbulbing to the north too enhancing the drainage. The lift is definitely the most important though I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Okay--bedtime for this weenie. Hope we get some great news for all from the rest of the 00z suite. Have a good one folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like a nice hit for NNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Leaves behind quite a bit of moisture with an inverted troff look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Brutal run for the southcoast misfits. Happy for the rest of you guys, wagons northwest theme to this point, no reason to change now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's the NAM outside of 42 hours. That said if I was right for 40 days and wrong for 1.5....congrats on the "win" Not sure where the nearest place is but I think I'll eat at home. It's the bottom line that counts meat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like a nice hit for NNE too. Yes, Mentioned earlier that this one may be our only chance at seeing some snow, We will see how the rest of 0z goes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 seems like there is moisture hanging around out to 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Not sure where the nearest place is but I think I'll eat at home. It's the bottom line that counts meat. I still think you lose, I won't bite on a 48+ hour NAM prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like a nice hit for NNE too. Hours upon hours of hang back snizzle too. Maybe it'll end up higher ratio, low-level glittery dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yes and I think the more defined low helps the ageostrophic flow...when you have a greater pressure difference, the winds will def want to cross the isobars more and we see some good drainage. I think dendrite had a good point too in having the wetbulbing to the north too enhancing the drainage. The lift is definitely the most important though I think. There is a fine line with this, as having it much farther north risks a GFS type solution with the moisture cutting off pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hours upon hours of hang back snizzle too. Maybe it'll end up higher ratio, low-level glittery dendrites. Yeah hoping I can get some periodic light snows like the NAM has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I still think you lose, I won't bite on a 48+ hour NAM prog. You're toast. If not Friday then on the front end of the next one. Too bad because it would have been a feast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Lots of cold air draining in on ne winds in the lower levels. Probably a little upslope enhancement possibly on the ORH hills and Berks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Lots of cold air draining in on ne winds in the lower levels. Probably a little upslope enhancement possibly on the ORH hills and Berks too. Yum! Ice crystals which are my all time favorite along with snow needles.........looks good for you Scooter, you have logged many hours this season breaking down this horrific pattern you deserve it. I have come to grips with the fact that I will not see a single solitary snowflake this entire upcoming period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The nam gives most people around the pike 3" I would think (maybe 4" for Will?)...It gives me .5 qpf before the lingering snows and with low 8:1 ratios I would think I could get 3" if the nam was right. The other good think about the nam if it were to verify is the periodic -sn after allows temperatures to stay in the mid 30s and not torch into the mid 40s and torch away all the snow like 18z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nam has really turned significantly colder over its last two runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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