ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah...I think a coating to 4" about covers it for me. I think you are probably good for an inch even in the uglier scenario...even the 18z GFS gave you an inch or so and gave me about 2-3 inches....and Hubbdave 4". That was the warmest model of any guidance too...I think we'll see something a bit more like the Euro. I'd probably go like 1-3" for you right now and 2-4" for me with 3-5" for Hubbdave...but if we see the omega bomb honing in on our area, I might up it slightly for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Joe, it's not going to turn into a NNE special....enough of that crap. Scott, I just want an inch for xmas....not unreasonable and very possible. Who said it was? I said congrats powder freak since the combination of synoptic and enhancement snows will give him plenty. And as far as the crap, you are the one that was spilling the powderfreak nonsense about how he was being anti snow 5 days out. When you say things like " Im going to have a complete meltdown if the xmas storm is rain" who the hell can take you seriously. Dont ever tell me what to say or how to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I am not sure how we don't get 2-3" out of this..based on the NAM/Euro.. hopefully GFS cools down a bit and we are good. The boundary layer is pretty bad unless we can rip. If the NAM is right..still might be only 2" or so. Euro probably would argue something around that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Euro was colder as usual. Track wise it was a bit south of the GFS, but the GFS is likely too warm in the thermal profile. It's a tough call for you, but maybe an inch...poss two if it breaks right. oh, that is lower than my current thinking..but 1" is better than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 LMAO at Erics shops. Slop to an inch for me, maybe it will freeze and lock in for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Has anyone checked the RUC? Well I'm going to mow the lawn in the morning, get it good and short for this wintry onslaught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 oh, that is lower than my current thinking..but 1" is better than rain. Could be 2-3" if it's a little colder and we get the good lift, but I don't think it's a scenario to go bullish right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think you are probably good for an inch even in the uglier scenario...even the 18z GFS gave you an inch or so and gave me about 2-3 inches....and Hubbdave 4". That was the warmest model of any guidance too...I think we'll see something a bit more like the Euro. I'd probably go like 1-3" for you right now and 2-4" for me with 3-5" for Hubbdave...but if we see the omega bomb honing in on our area, I might up it slightly for us. Thanks for the thoughts Will, I agree. The 21z sref snowfall prob map was about as perfect as you could ask for for this storm. They seemed to want to give a nice little 4" jackpot from Hubbdave to your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What's the timing of the other international models? Not sure if I can stay up for the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Could be 2-3" if it's a little colder and we get the good lift, but I don't think it's a scenario to go bullish right now. Thanks, the NAM is also still holding on to the Fri night/Sat light snow.. that would be nice plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Could be 2-3" if it's a little colder and we get the good lift, but I don't think it's a scenario to go bullish right now. Still some pixie dust -SN for you and I Friday PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 That's crazy. LOL I haven't mowed since maybe October 10th... Yeah it grew back a bit but it stunted and has died back so why bother. Has anyone checked the RUC? Well I'm going to mow the lawn in the morning, get it good and short for this wintry onslaught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 SREFs would probably be nice for interior ne mass. If you could lock that...it would be a picture postcard. You guys have latitude. The extra degree C at 850 and maybe even 950 may help. But if we somehow have crappy echoes..it could be a bust of an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 That's crazy. LOL I haven't mowed since maybe October 10th... Yeah it grew back a bit but it stunted and has died back so why bother. I think he was joking.... Scott--those ongoing flakes will liven the holiday spirits in the Hub! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Wow, nam actually has some good moisture hanging back around 00z Friday. At the very least, Friday will be a nice wintry day finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Still some pixie dust -SN for you and I Friday PM. Yeah...I'm just a little concerned we may lose the Saturday light snows. Might be enough ne winds to bring some into places to my south, but I'm hoping the SREFs and even EC ensembles are right with some light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Still some pixie dust -SN for you and I Friday PM. Actualy more than dust for you on Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think he was joking.... Scott--those ongoing flakes will liven the holiday spirits in the Hub! Well it's Christmas Eve on the south shore and Christmas Day on the North shore..so hopefully one if not both places will have snow OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Wow, nam actually has some good moisture hanging back around 00z Friday. At the very least, Friday will be a nice wintry day finally. LOL--I read your post and then saw the temp under your icon that read 53* at 9:40p.m. This snow can't come soon enough! Temp continuing to rise here. Up to 42.9/42, very foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Alright..morning shift awaits. Good luck to all on the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Who said it was? I said congrats powder freak since the combination of synoptic and enhancement snows will give him plenty. And as far as the crap, you are the one that was spilling the powderfreak nonsense about how he was being anti snow 5 days out. When you say things like " Im going to have a complete meltdown if the xmas storm is rain" who the hell can take you seriously. Dont ever tell me what to say or how to think. This pattern has clearly gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 LOL--I read your post and then saw the temp under your icon that read 53* at 9:40p.m. This snow can't come soon enough! Temp continuing to rise here. Up to 42.9/42, very foggy. Indeed, but as I mentioned in the obs thread, about 10-20 miles ne of here its around 39-40...very impressive gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well it's Christmas Eve on the south shore and Christmas Day on the North shore..so hopefully one if not both places will have snow OTG. I'll be north shore on Christmas (Marblehead) and up to Bath, ME for a visit that night/next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Actualy more than dust for you on Nam Ginxxx, just checking in, things look good out this way it seems. Hope you get some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Sizable bump north though, but yeah...still south of other guidance. I think we're honing in on a consensus though. Mslp barely moved north. The precip shield is more expansive and the storm is a few mbs deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'll be north shore on Christmas (Marblehead) and up to Bath, ME for a visit that night/next day. Stop by Newburyport..lol that's where I'll be. Love that place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I heard a downpour of rain and looked at the thermometer and the mild air finally burst through here...from 37 to 46 in a matter of minutes. LOL--I read your post and then saw the temp under your icon that read 53* at 9:40p.m. This snow can't come soon enough! Temp continuing to rise here. Up to 42.9/42, very foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think he was joking.... Scott--those ongoing flakes will liven the holiday spirits in the Hub! Not joking was going to do it last week didn't get around to it. Then it snowed. It's too long and looks dumb. I need to cut it back to putt putt levels because this year go small or go home. NAM would make it snow on a lot of us, but it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Alright..morning shift awaits. Good luck to all on the rest of the guidance. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsSXMT0NrB4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Who said it was? I said congrats powder freak since the combination of synoptic and enhancement snows will give him plenty. And as far as the crap, you are the one that was spilling the powderfreak nonsense about how he was being anti snow 5 days out. When you say things like " Im going to have a complete meltdown if the xmas storm is rain" who the hell can take you seriously. Dont ever tell me what to say or how to think. Exactly....this is not 5 days out....it's one day. With a +NAO and AO 5 days out, it is reasonable to expect that and I ended up being right. As for the xmas meltdown, surely I am irrational to be pissed about a rainer on xmas...I have entirely lost all credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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