Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Hows that Euro xmas snowstorm working for you? You know better than anyone how bad the GFS is going to bust on this with it's thermal profiles. You've ridden the GFS and in the end it always flips you over and rides you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think thermal profiles on GFS are too warm, which isn't all that out of the ordinary in a setup like this...the Euro/EC ensembles were a bit colder. So I might favor a track similar to GFS because its track wasn't that different than Euro...it was just warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I wish i would have already pis sed thru 10 tanks , Geez, What do you think i don't care for snow? I ride it until its gone in march, Just that is has sucked so bad thats the only good fortune to this whole deal Lol just the weenie in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 You know better than anyone how bad the GFS is going to bust on this with it's thermal profiles. You've ridden the GFS and in the end it always flips you over and rides you Nope, not this "winter", this is a different beast, the se ridge is fatter than any of Jerry's squirrels, its wagons nw, the gfs has not budged for tom night/friday while everything else has waffled. It sniffed out the xmas no show, you should know the euro bias, in the end everything south of ct mass border gets overwhelmed by warmth. Pick your poison, south and shredded, no VV's or north and amped with VV's for most of us the end result is the same. GFS has been consistent this week, if it ends up wrong, well, everyone is happy and you can keep ****ting on it. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 gfs has been rock solid. A+ Oh man you're going fishing with that comment haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Wait, lol, are you saying the GFS has only been correct once in its existance.?? I thought we are talking this winter season?? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Nope, not this "winter", this is a different beast, the se ridge is fatter than any of Jerry's squirrels, its wagons nw, the gfs has not budged for tom night/friday while everything else has waffled. It sniffed out the xmas no show, you should know the euro bias, in the end everything south of ct mass border gets overwhelmed by warmth. Pick your poison, south and shredded, no VV's or north and amped with VV's for most of us the end result is the same. GFS has been consistent this week, if it ends up wrong, well, everyone is happy and you can keep ****ting on it. Good luck. What are you going to do tomorrow nite when the models bring back the Xmas storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Oh man you're going fishing with that comment haha This week, and sniffing out the no show xmas a thon, yep it has, thats what we are talking about. And by the way the reverse pych is getting old, just enjoy the snow tomorrow night:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Oh man you're going fishing with that comment haha Yeah when the Euro had this system a couple days ago, I think the GFS had a weak wave hitting Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Lol just the weenie in me. Might as well have 2, There fat free..... :weenie: lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What are you going to do tomorrow nite when the models bring back the Xmas storm? Merry Christmas Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah when the Euro had this system a couple days ago, I think the GFS had a weak wave hitting Bermuda. lol, As it came crawling back nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This week, and sniffing out the no show xmas a thon, yep it has, thats what we are talking about. And by the way the reverse pych is getting old, just enjoy the snow tomorrow night:) Did Scooter loan his Cranky Pants to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This week, and sniffing out the no show xmas a thon, yep it has, thats what we are talking about. And by the way the reverse pych is getting old, just enjoy the snow tomorrow night:) Hey I agree with you about the GFS...it's really not that bad of a model and verification wise it schools the NAM. It's mid and upper level scores are decent and it's synoptics are good. I think folks just think it's bad due to its sfc temps but upper levels on the GFS are quite reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What are you going to do tomorrow nite when the models bring back the Xmas storm? You're up late. One model already brought it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What is sad will be tomorrows antecedent conditions, without it we do not worry to the coast. A well torched LL will take a while to cool down and wet bulb. What are the temps Sat? If we get an inch does it make to Sun? I just looked at my barely white cover for last Christmas and laughed, who would have known the next month it would be 38 OTG. Pattern is as bad as it gets but there is light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah when the Euro had this system a couple days ago, I think the GFS had a weak wave hitting Bermuda. Yeah but I still find myself having more faith in the GFS over the NAM but certainly not as much as the EC. I don't know why but I just have never felt good about basing a forecast off the NAM which is why I have a hard time believing that no sig forcing gets into CNE like the NAM shows. Just take the GFS and cool the low levels 1-2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 What is sad will be tomorrows antecedent conditions, without it we do not worry to the coast. A well torched LL will take a while to cool down and wet bulb. What are the temps Sat? If we get an inch does it make to Sun? I just looked at my barely white cover for last Christmas and laughed, who would have known the next month it would be 38 OTG. Pattern is as bad as it gets but there is light. Saturday should be pretty cold...esp the spots that stay mostly cloudy. But even without it, it should be in the 30s most spots and I could even see N ORH hills and Berkshires not making it out of the 20s. I've thought the Xmas eve airmass was being a bit underplayed for a few days but BOX finally said in their AFD today that Sat would be at or below avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah but I still find myself having more faith in the GFS over the NAM but certainly not as much as the EC. I don't know why but I just have never felt good about basing a forecast off the NAM which is why I have a hard time believing that no sig forcing gets into CNE like the NAM shows. Just take the GFS and cool the low levels 1-2C. Oh I would never use the NAM in a SWFE...esp at this range. GFS does pretty well in them, though can sometimes be too warm. The NAM scores its points in systems with a lot of convection...it destroyed the GFS last year in the 1/12 storm. Ditto in the Oct storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I guess you're narrowly missing the ice around there. Most of Quebec is locked in the 20s with quite a bit of ice tonight. Socked in dense fog here and 38 ...hasn't budged in five hours. Yeah but I still find myself having more faith in the GFS over the NAM but certainly not as much as the EC. I don't know why but I just have never felt good about basing a forecast off the NAM which is why I have a hard time believing that no sig forcing gets into CNE like the NAM shows. Just take the GFS and cool the low levels 1-2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Saturday should be pretty cold...esp the spots that stay mostly cloudy. But even without it, it should be in the 30s most spots and I could even see N ORH hills and Berkshires not making it out of the 20s. I've thought the Xmas eve airmass was being a bit underplayed for a few days but BOX finally said in their AFD today that Sat would be at or below avg. Will, do you believe there will be a rebirth of the xmas/boxing day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Will, do you believe there will be a rebirth of the xmas/boxing day storm? He would probably answer it in the xmas miracle thread......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What a pathetic pattern. At this point, I'll be happy just to see a few flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Oh man you're going fishing with that comment haha Rock solid wrong. Fish ON!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Top nina analog on the CIPS site is 1/11/09. Oh man I remember that storm, just read the thread on Eastern, Epic Kev Ryan battle. Antecedent day was low 20s though. That storm sh it the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Fish ON!!!! "We're gonna need a bigger boat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 "We're gonna need a bigger boat" Titanic would work, More people could go down all at once.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What is sad will be tomorrows antecedent conditions, without it we do not worry to the coast. A well torched LL will take a while to cool down and wet bulb. What are the temps Sat? If we get an inch does it make to Sun? I just looked at my barely white cover for last Christmas and laughed, who would have known the next month it would be 38 OTG. Pattern is as bad as it gets but there is light. Indeed. They aren't able to keep up with the snow in Willow. Another 12" today. 30" at Thompson's Pass. Eventually it will be our turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Indeed. They aren't able to keep up with the snow in Willow. Another 12" today. 30" at Thompson's Pass. Eventually it will be our turn. Meh who cares about alaska, and its sad that mad river glen is closed in north central vermont due to lack of snow as we approach xmas. Reality sucks... especially when it hurts our fellow ne's wallets, but carry on.......big big winter....xxx..........those of us that live in the real world are delusional:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Meh who cares about alaska, and its sad that mad river glen is closed in north central vermont due to lack of snow as we approach xmas. Reality sucks... especially when it hurts our fellow ne's wallets, but carry on.......big big winter....xxx..........those of us that live in the real world are delusional:) vim toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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