weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 BOX's thoughts pretty much AWT...I would think there will probably be WWA's posted for N ORH, Berksire and Hampshire country at the 4am update. I would think Southern New Hampshire and southern ORH too but those are more borderline. N OF THE MA PIKE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PROFILE CLOSE TO FREEZING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...AND GIVEN DWPTS START BELOW FRZ...WETBULB TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW FRZ. H92 TEMPS OF 0C TO -1C ON THE WARMER GFS SUGGEST -SN IS A BETTER BET HERE...BUT QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER GIVEN BEST FORCING IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...ATTM IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME FLAKES /ALTHOUGH SRN REGIONS IT MAY BE CLOSE TO PRECIP END/ WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADV LVL SNOWFALLS OVER NW MA AND SRN NH....QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW OVERALL FOR WARNING LVL SNOW EVEN IN THE REGION OF BEST FORCING. THIS IS ALSO FAVORED BY SREF SNOWFALL PROBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 i'm just going to ride the mm5. The spirit of CT Blizz commands you. I hate to say it but its too early to get excited. Kind of cool in a way that each model run leaves some suspense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 BOX's thoughts pretty much AWT...I would think there will probably be WWA's posted for N ORH, Berksire and Hampshire country at the 4am update. I would think Southern New Hampshire and southern ORH too but those are more borderline. N OF THE MA PIKE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PROFILE CLOSE TO FREEZING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...AND GIVEN DWPTS START BELOW FRZ...WETBULB TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW FRZ. H92 TEMPS OF 0C TO -1C ON THE WARMER GFS SUGGEST -SN IS A BETTER BET HERE...BUT QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER GIVEN BEST FORCING IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...ATTM IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME FLAKES /ALTHOUGH SRN REGIONS IT MAY BE CLOSE TO PRECIP END/ WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADV LVL SNOWFALLS OVER NW MA AND SRN NH....QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW OVERALL FOR WARNING LVL SNOW EVEN IN THE REGION OF BEST FORCING. THIS IS ALSO FAVORED BY SREF SNOWFALL PROBS. That doesn't jive with most of the modelling except the GFS..but that's to be expected that they would ride that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That doesn't jive with most of the modelling except the GFS..but that's to be expected that they would ride that And yet you haven't committed to a poll response. hmmmmm:) Warming--33.8/33, foggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 And yet you haven't committed to a poll response. hmmmmm:) Warming--33.8/33, foggy i don't think he will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Can anyone figure out why Doody has it being sunny on Saturday with the s/w and lift and high rh over all of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 OT---seems like the qpf busted here today. Not sure how much was expected, but I had anticipated it would be more than the .09" that I got. 33.7/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Can anyone figure out why Doody has it being sunny on Saturday with the s/w and lift and high rh over all of SNE? It's not supposed to be taken literally. Meanwhile: WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 417 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011 .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 For those in far western regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 For those in far western regions Oh, the weather outside is frightful....er.....that map is frightful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 gfs steadfast for friday, by far the most consistent model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 What the hell is that map? Are they forgetting things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS holds serve. Nice model battle going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Caving begins tonight I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL moneypitmike is worried about being too far north...well don't worry cause BTV thinks this comes way north with decent QPF as they have 2-4" in my zone two counties south of Canada. Thursday Night Cloudy. Snow likely...mainly after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Lows in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Caving begins tonight I think what models caves to whom, I would imagine you would think the nam and meso's cave to the almighty king, gfs ggem srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Caving begins tonight I think When it's the GFS vs the world..we know who is winless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 what models caves to whom, I would imagine you would think the nam and meso's cave to the almighty king, gfs ggem srefs? I would lean towards the Euro, but what the heck do I know, lol At least it is something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 what models caves to whom, I would imagine you would think the nam and meso's cave to the almighty king, gfs ggem srefs? I wouldn't group them like that. The nam is too cold, the gfs is too warm. srefs/ggem/euro are the middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 When it's the GFS vs the world..we know who is winless Of course, the world is closer the the GFS than the NAM it seems this go 'round. 33.5/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL moneypitmike is worried about being too far north...well don't worry cause BTV thinks this comes way north with decent QPF as they have 2-4" in my zone two counties south of Canada. Thursday Night Cloudy. Snow likely...mainly after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Lows in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 70 percent. Keep in mind...waay up there by then the temps will be quite a bit colder so comparatively less QPF may actually stack up higher. 2-4" may in fact less QPF compared to a 1.5" glop fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Keep in mind...waay up there by then the temps will be quite a bit colder so comparatively less QPF may actually stack up higher. 2-4" may in fact less QPF compared to a 1.5" glop fest. This is true...the H85 -10 isotherm hangs up here or just south for the event and my experience says we get out best ratios when that occurs. It also puts any low level orographic stuff into good snow growth zone too. Im forecasting 1-2 at the ski resort right now though as I think our chances for 4" would be very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Any amount of natural cover prior to the holiday would be nice up here. Ski based businesses are suffering and need a boost, 2-4" would actually be a good start...also, what is the story for upslope conditions through saturday, as I've been hearing in various posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If anything the 18z gfs looks warmer for areas around the pike...this could be quite the battle. Looks like ORH flips pretty late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think my only hope around here id for some sort of NORLUN Saturday. Either that, or 2-3 hour omega burst and a 33F paste Friday morning, but that may be tough. Nice model battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This is true...the H85 -10 isotherm hangs up here or just south for the event and my experience says we get out best ratios when that occurs. It also puts any low level orographic stuff into good snow growth zone too. Im forecasting 1-2 at the ski resort right now though as I think our chances for 4" would be very low. What kind of amounts you think down here and at your other house in Woodstock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think my only hope around here id for some sort of NORLUN Saturday. Either that, or 2-3 hour omega burst and a 33F paste Friday morning, but that may be tough. Nice model battle. Whose side are you on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Whose side are you on? Well I think the NAM is way too flat, but a split between euro and GFS may work in terms of track..siding maybe near Euro thermal profile? It's tough because a 30 mile shift will effect a lot of people. I feel like a beaten man with this pattern. It's possible I may just get flakes out of this whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think my only hope around here id for some sort of NORLUN Saturday. Either that, or 2-3 hour omega burst and a 33F paste Friday morning, but that may be tough. Nice model battle. My gut is a lot of us are in that boat. Unfortunately, whatever develops on sat could be fairly localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Of course, the world is closer the the GFS than the NAM it seems this go 'round. 33.5/33 Just got in, interesting ride. Low 40's across the highest terrain but here in the glen it's a steady 34. Near calm here but windy on the west slope. How are we looking? 2-4" seems fair? a bit more above 1600'? How worried about QPF are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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