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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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Edit, I just moused over the description.

I'd confirm it against other H85 RH plots first. They have some nice data on WU, but could do a better job with the scaling and descriptions. Their 2m temp maps are a little strange sometimes as the line contours don't always match up with the shaded ones.
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I'm liking what I see for a solid WWA event for the higher terrain of W and C MA. Barring a dramatic shift N or S, I'm thinking a 3-5" deal above 1K, and possibly a 6" lollipop near 2K in the northern Berks. The valleys below 1K will probably have BL issues early on, which should limit accumulations to 1-3". IMO, I'm more concerned that this thing winds up being too warm in the mid-levels for areas south of the Pike than a more suppressed solution that keeps the QPF further south a la 12Z NAM. I also like S VT and S NH for this event, N CT not so much with the exception of maybe Norfolk or Salisbury.

Currently torching out there with a decent S wind. Up to 47.1°. If MPM is still near freezing, this is a classic example of the west slope torching and the east slope experiencing cold air trapping. This is major reason why snow pack retention is so much better just to my E in winters where it actually snows enough for a solid snow pack.

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Currently torching out there with a decent S wind. Up to 47.1°. If MPM is still near freezing, this is a classic example of the west slope torching and the east slope experiencing cold air trapping. This is major reason why snow pack retention is so much better just to my E in winters where it actually snows enough for a solid snow pack.

Same exact thing up here... its 32F here on the east side of Mount Mansfield in Stowe while Underhill on the west side (only a few miles away as the crow flies but otherside of the ridge) is 42F.

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That way no matter what he writes, the post is always "on topic." Its fail proof way not to get your posts deleted by Mods, haha.

Meso-scale models look good for you Blizz... grass covered for X-mas!

Let's hope so. NAM/Srefs/Ukie/RGEM and even the Euro all give me some snow..I'd rather have that combo on my side than the GFS..we';ll see how it plays out

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15z SREFs took a big bump back north which isn't a surprise considering how suppressed they were at 09z. They still keep Kevin safe though for the time being, but we'll have to wait and see how the 00z suite comes in...SREFs could be behind the curve here as has been mentioned a few times.

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15z SREFs took a big bump back north which isn't a surprise considering how suppressed they were at 09z. They still keep Kevin safe though for the time being, but we'll have to wait and see how the 00z suite comes in...SREFs could be behind the curve here as has been mentioned a few times.

Nice. I didn't like the 09 SREFs.

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I'm liking what I see for a solid WWA event for the higher terrain of W and C MA. Barring a dramatic shift N or S, I'm thinking a 3-5" deal above 1K, and possibly a 6" lollipop near 2K in the northern Berks. The valleys below 1K will probably have BL issues early on, which should limit accumulations to 1-3". IMO, I'm more concerned that this thing winds up being too warm in the mid-levels for areas south of the Pike than a more suppressed solution that keeps the QPF further south a la 12Z NAM. I also like S VT and S NH for this event, N CT not so much with the exception of maybe Norfolk or Salisbury.

Currently torching out there with a decent S wind. Up to 47.1°. If MPM is still near freezing, this is a classic example of the west slope torching and the east slope experiencing cold air trapping. This is major reason why snow pack retention is so much better just to my E in winters where it actually snows enough for a solid snow pack.

He still is. Sitting at 32.8/31. I keep expecting it to spike, but still waiting. Nice to see my snow icon on. Maybe it's advanced warning for tomorrow night.

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Raining good, socked in with fog and 39 out here now. That 6 inch sweet spot could be near here tomorrow night (except the NAM which gives under 1"), but we shall see.....

I'm liking what I see for a solid WWA event for the higher terrain of W and C MA. Barring a dramatic shift N or S, I'm thinking a 3-5" deal above 1K, and possibly a 6" lollipop near 2K in the northern Berks. The valleys below 1K will probably have BL issues early on, which should limit accumulations to 1-3". IMO, I'm more concerned that this thing winds up being too warm in the mid-levels for areas south of the Pike than a more suppressed solution that keeps the QPF further south a la 12Z NAM. I also like S VT and S NH for this event, N CT not so much with the exception of maybe Norfolk or Salisbury.

Currently torching out there with a decent S wind. Up to 47.1°. If MPM is still near freezing, this is a classic example of the west slope torching and the east slope experiencing cold air trapping. This is major reason why snow pack retention is so much better just to my E in winters where it actually snows enough for a solid snow pack.

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15z SREFs took a big bump back north which isn't a surprise considering how suppressed they were at 09z. They still keep Kevin safe though for the time being, but we'll have to wait and see how the 00z suite comes in...SREFs could be behind the curve here as has been mentioned a few times.

Nice. I didn't like the 09 SREFs.

Just hope it doesn't continue trekking north like the system earlier this month with wide-spread rain before quick change at the end.

32.7/32, heavy fog just below my hill.

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SREF probs are north obviously from 09z after the shift north...the 1" probs have gotten really high over a good portion of SNE...whether this is relevant yet is still a bit iffy to me. The EC ensembles being pretty much just like 00z definitely give a little bit more confidence on avoiding a huge jump north

f12s51.gif

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