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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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That happens a lot in SWFE type events...I remember in 12/19/08 they did much better than anyone forecasted.

It has that look. Look how that deformation area hangs back. It doesn't mean that whole areas is like 15-20 DBZs, but I wonder of a stripe across central VT and NH do well relatively speaking.

The euro has this further to the south, but still encompassed a large part of New England.

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Like Phil and Brian said, the NAM is a product of dynamic cooling. But the GFS imo kind of stinks for people like Kevin. Here is why. This will be a system I think where closer to the actual low center, there will be a more compact, but intense area of lift, whereas further away..it may not be as intense, but a more broader area of light to moderate values of lift I think. Sorry for the run on sentence BTW.

Anyways, here is why you don't want the GFS. I know it can run warmer this time of year and I agree it can torch 850 a lot more than it should. However notice in this graphic, SNE has good lift overall, but it's probably just switching over to snow in nrn CT..maybe down to Kev. I'm also trying to take into account the warm bias.

But look at 12z, the precip is just about gone with the mid level deformation and associated weak return way up in NNE. SO just when he is ready to rock, the precip is gone.

\

The euro is further south with all this, and is much better for areas near and south of the Pike. However, I'm just showing why you don't want this much further north.

Okay thanks for the explanation Scott I think I understand now. Btw, those values on the bottom, how do you know which is positive and which is negative..the colors are the same lol. And are negative values indicative of rising motion since I'm guessing this is omega we're looking at?

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Okay thanks for the explanation Scott I think I understand now. Btw, those values on the bottom, how do you know which is positive and which is negative..the colors are the same lol. And are negative values indicative of rising motion since I'm guessing this is omega we're looking at?

On those maps, positive values are rising air because they show omega in negative ub/s. On the crude NCEP 700mb maps, they show rising air as negative values since they don't put the negative sign in front of the omega...it can get a bit confusing if you don't catch that little nuance.

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On those maps, positive values are rising air because they show omega in negative ub/s. On the crude NCEP 700mb maps, they show rising air as negative values since they don't put the negative sign in front of the omega...it can get a bit confusing if you don't catch that little nuance.

Yeah it's confusing for those who don't know the system. Also, people should just worry about what is shown in those shaded areas anyways, since we normally don't care about lift in a rather dry column.

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On those maps, positive values are rising air because they show omega in negative ub/s. On the crude NCEP 700mb maps, they show rising air as negative values since they don't put the negative sign in front of the omega...it can get a bit confusing if you don't catch that little nuance.

Ah okay, so it's like a double negative..tricky.

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Clown maps

42d4d0af-32f3-be68.jpg

42d4d0af-32fd-d8ed.jpg

Can't really make the details out on that. But, they appear underwhelming. In recent years, I don't think this would have merited its own thread. :)

This could be a classic case of CNE getting more than some think...despite what the QPF output is.

Scott--it's like you're anticipating my concern. Weird.

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I apologize since this is not apples to apples comparison, but here is the euro at 12z Friday at 700mb. You can see that the model is showing the DS further south and also it's slower as well..as compared to the GFS. Again, that other map was the average 850-500 layer...but you kind of get the point.

post-33-0-06905300-1324432145.gif

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I apologize since this is not apples to apples comparison, but here is the euro at 12z Friday at 700mb. You can see that the model is showing the DS further south and also it's slower as well..as compared to the GFS. Again, that other map was the average 850-500 layer...but you kind of get the point.

I think you can plot the 500-700-850 mean RH from the Euro on plym too.
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Can't really make the details out on that. But, they appear underwhelming. In recent years, I don't think this would have merited its own thread. :)

Scott--it's like you're anticipating my concern. Weird.

It's all relative. What I meant was that even though the QPF might be light up that way, it's possible there could be an area that does really well.

Anyways, hopefully the NAM and Euro are correct. I think those models might be better to analyze for the dynamic cooling aspect of this. Probably applies more for the higher elevations.

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It's all relative. What I meant was that even though the QPF might be light up that way, it's possible there could be an area that does really well.

Anyways, hopefully the NAM and Euro are correct. I think those models might be better to analyze for the dynamic cooling aspect of this. Probably applies more for the higher elevations.

Of course, my qpf comment was in jest.

Thanks for the explanations. I try to follow along.

Meanwhile, the final 00z NAM of the fall season is now running.

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Ah okay, so it's like a double negative..tricky.

It's a little confusing if you haven't had dynamics courses. For upward vertical velocities the upward w vector is positive, but for the omega equation upward motion is a negative value. Then like Will said, in some maps of omega they show a negative omega with is a double negative like you said. Some just like the look of plotting positive values for upward motion.
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to the tune of 12 inches all the way up here. (followed by ongoing very light snow for the next 24-36 hours and then another double figure dump on the 21st.

my first snowstorm upon moving up here :):thumbsup:

For 12/19/08 I had 8.5" on 0.69" and CON had 6.5" on 0.46".

The problem this time is that temps will be much more marginal. It dropped into the 10s during the middle of that event. We'll be flirting around with 32F.

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