Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This could be a classic case of CNE getting more than some think...despite what the QPF output is. More like a classic case of it being Tuesday and it'll change 3 times between now and Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This could be a classic case of CNE getting more than some think...despite what the QPF output is. Scott, thanks for continueing to make great posts. They are very helpful for those of us trying to learn more. Always illustrative and easy to comprehend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That happens a lot in SWFE type events...I remember in 12/19/08 they did much better than anyone forecasted. It has that look. Look how that deformation area hangs back. It doesn't mean that whole areas is like 15-20 DBZs, but I wonder of a stripe across central VT and NH do well relatively speaking. The euro has this further to the south, but still encompassed a large part of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That happens a lot in SWFE type events...I remember in 12/19/08 they did much better than anyone forecasted. That was a decent little event... I even had power back edit: I had 11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 More like a classic case of it being Tuesday and it'll change 3 times between now and Wednesday evening. Well I'm just saying and using that run as an example. I was trying to be careful with the wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This could be a classic case of CNE getting more than some think...despite what the QPF output is. Ratios accounting for this possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Like Phil and Brian said, the NAM is a product of dynamic cooling. But the GFS imo kind of stinks for people like Kevin. Here is why. This will be a system I think where closer to the actual low center, there will be a more compact, but intense area of lift, whereas further away..it may not be as intense, but a more broader area of light to moderate values of lift I think. Sorry for the run on sentence BTW. Anyways, here is why you don't want the GFS. I know it can run warmer this time of year and I agree it can torch 850 a lot more than it should. However notice in this graphic, SNE has good lift overall, but it's probably just switching over to snow in nrn CT..maybe down to Kev. I'm also trying to take into account the warm bias. But look at 12z, the precip is just about gone with the mid level deformation and associated weak return way up in NNE. SO just when he is ready to rock, the precip is gone. \ The euro is further south with all this, and is much better for areas near and south of the Pike. However, I'm just showing why you don't want this much further north. Okay thanks for the explanation Scott I think I understand now. Btw, those values on the bottom, how do you know which is positive and which is negative..the colors are the same lol. And are negative values indicative of rising motion since I'm guessing this is omega we're looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well I'm just saying and using that run as an example. I was trying to be careful with the wording. We'll see what tonight brings with the models. I suspect models were struggling with some feature on the edge at init. NCEP went with the EURO longer term which surprises me given it's tendencies in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Okay thanks for the explanation Scott I think I understand now. Btw, those values on the bottom, how do you know which is positive and which is negative..the colors are the same lol. And are negative values indicative of rising motion since I'm guessing this is omega we're looking at? On those maps, positive values are rising air because they show omega in negative ub/s. On the crude NCEP 700mb maps, they show rising air as negative values since they don't put the negative sign in front of the omega...it can get a bit confusing if you don't catch that little nuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ratios accounting for this possibility? Yeah there probably would be. There also may be a secondary front up that way which may enhance the snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 On those maps, positive values are rising air because they show omega in negative ub/s. On the crude NCEP 700mb maps, they show rising air as negative values since they don't put the negative sign in front of the omega...it can get a bit confusing if you don't catch that little nuance. Yeah it's confusing for those who don't know the system. Also, people should just worry about what is shown in those shaded areas anyways, since we normally don't care about lift in a rather dry column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 On those maps, positive values are rising air because they show omega in negative ub/s. On the crude NCEP 700mb maps, they show rising air as negative values since they don't put the negative sign in front of the omega...it can get a bit confusing if you don't catch that little nuance. Ah okay, so it's like a double negative..tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Clown maps Can't really make the details out on that. But, they appear underwhelming. In recent years, I don't think this would have merited its own thread. This could be a classic case of CNE getting more than some think...despite what the QPF output is. Scott--it's like you're anticipating my concern. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I apologize since this is not apples to apples comparison, but here is the euro at 12z Friday at 700mb. You can see that the model is showing the DS further south and also it's slower as well..as compared to the GFS. Again, that other map was the average 850-500 layer...but you kind of get the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I apologize since this is not apples to apples comparison, but here is the euro at 12z Friday at 700mb. You can see that the model is showing the DS further south and also it's slower as well..as compared to the GFS. Again, that other map was the average 850-500 layer...but you kind of get the point. I think you can plot the 500-700-850 mean RH from the Euro on plym too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Can't really make the details out on that. But, they appear underwhelming. In recent years, I don't think this would have merited its own thread. Scott--it's like you're anticipating my concern. Weird. Indeed. We would laugh it off. Nusiance snow. This year it is precious... precious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That happens a lot in SWFE type events...I remember in 12/19/08 they did much better than anyone forecasted. to the tune of 12 inches all the way up here. (followed by ongoing very light snow for the next 24-36 hours and then another double figure dump on the 21st. my first snowstorm upon moving up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Can't really make the details out on that. But, they appear underwhelming. In recent years, I don't think this would have merited its own thread. Scott--it's like you're anticipating my concern. Weird. It's all relative. What I meant was that even though the QPF might be light up that way, it's possible there could be an area that does really well. Anyways, hopefully the NAM and Euro are correct. I think those models might be better to analyze for the dynamic cooling aspect of this. Probably applies more for the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think you can plot the 500-700-850 mean RH from the Euro on plym too. I tried and got a black screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's all relative. What I meant was that even though the QPF might be light up that way, it's possible there could be an area that does really well. Anyways, hopefully the NAM and Euro are correct. I think those models might be better to analyze for the dynamic cooling aspect of this. Probably applies more for the higher elevations. Of course, my qpf comment was in jest. Thanks for the explanations. I try to follow along. Meanwhile, the final 00z NAM of the fall season is now running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ah okay, so it's like a double negative..tricky. It's a little confusing if you haven't had dynamics courses. For upward vertical velocities the upward w vector is positive, but for the omega equation upward motion is a negative value. Then like Will said, in some maps of omega they show a negative omega with is a double negative like you said. Some just like the look of plotting positive values for upward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I tried and got a black screen. Yup...my bad. We don't have H5 RH....only H7 and H85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 to the tune of 12 inches all the way up here. (followed by ongoing very light snow for the next 24-36 hours and then another double figure dump on the 21st. my first snowstorm upon moving up here For 12/19/08 I had 8.5" on 0.69" and CON had 6.5" on 0.46".The problem this time is that temps will be much more marginal. It dropped into the 10s during the middle of that event. We'll be flirting around with 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 For 12/19/08 I had 8.5" on 0.69" and CON had 6.5" on 0.46". The problem this time is that temps will be much more marginal. It dropped into the 10s during the middle of that event. We'll be flirting around with 32F. Cement @ 8:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 For a laugh check out how warm/wet the 21z Eta is for Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 For a laugh check out how warm/wet the 21z Eta is for Fri. Can you post a map/describe for those of us without access? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I sense a further northward adjustment on the 0Z NAM.... Can you post a map/describe for those of us without access? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 SREFs really beefed up probs...even have some 4" probs in SNE now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Can you post a map/describe for those of us without access? It's not that absurd I guess.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAEAST_0z/etaloop.html The NAM is rolling in. Everyone hold on for the ride because it's looking north through 51hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I sense a further northward adjustment on the 0Z NAM.... As of 51, I was thinking that was the case.....seems warmer, too, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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