Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 the one earlier this month I've had that one in the back of my mind given the craptastic pattern this is. Seeing that we are a month later you'd think just based on that, those same ares should do a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Dose it look like the BOS south guys will get anything on Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 2m this run didn't look a whole lot different from the 00z run to me. It's colder than the GFS though. AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 What does the Euro picking up on and trending the colder BL tell you though? For a model that usually has a warmer type 2m bias? Well there is def some high pressure to our NW building in from the northern stream induced confluence. That will probably be what stops this from tracking over our heads and put a limit on this...but it doesn't necessarily tell us a whole lot about the mid-level temps. I don't know where it will trend from here...maybe it just wobbles a bit and stays put which is what often happens...sometimes it ticks a little more north which could def happen too. It does start off the 0C 850 line kind of far south at 06z Friday before precip starts which was probably the main difference between the Euro and GFS...it did build in the ML cold air a little better initially, but then the strong LLJ really ripped it back north by 12z to just about over your head before it collapsed back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Why do so many people not want it to snow imby? LOL...dude, it's all in your head. i'm still hanging my hat on friday night / saturday. that'll be my window of opportunity for some snow before xmas i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 AMOUT hopefully you get some good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well there is def some high pressure to our NW building in from the northern stream induced confluence. That will probably be what stops this from tracking over our heads and put a limit on this...but it doesn't necessarily tell us a whole lot about the mid-level temps. I don't know where it will trend from here...maybe it just wobbles a bit and stays put which is what often happens...sometimes it ticks a little more north which could def happen too. It does start off the 0C 850 line kind of far south at 06z Friday before precip starts which was probably the main difference between the Euro and GFS...it did build in the ML cold air a little better initially, but then the strong LLJ really ripped it back north by 12z to just about over your head before it collapsed back SE. So to me ..and I know everyone thinks I'm an idiot ..that says that it actually trended closer to the NAM/Sref's(which are too cold) than it did the GFS from it's 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The euro will def be colder than the GFS in this set up. Yeah...the GFS doesn't have a prayer with its resolution.Kevin is walking a fine line though. I pray for him, lord do I pray. I hope he gets over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 does the EURo hold on to the snow into Saturday like the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I've had that one in the back of my mind given the craptastic pattern this is. Seeing that we are a month later you'd think just based on that, those same ares should do a little better. Hard to compare a bombing 12/8 type storm to this. Also there is more confluence building in. Pike special I would assume with little resemblance to the 12/8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 So to me ..and I know everyone thinks I'm an idiot ..that says that it actually trended closer to the NAM/Sref's(which are too cold) than it did the GFS from it's 00z run I thought it trended away from the NAM SREFs because it rips the warmth back north a bit after 06z. That may be true or false...tough to say. All we are trying to tell you is that it's close to being a very minor deal for you..but hopefully it trends colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Dose it look like the BOS south guys will get anything on Saturday? There may be an inv trough setup that could give ern areas some light snow, but those setups are very tricky and localized. You won't know for sure until like 24 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 The wunderground maps are out....and there is a ton of evap cooling between 42h and 45h (09z Fri)...it actually rips the 850 0C line down to like LI sound for a time before lifting it back up over Kevin's head at 12z. The weenie snow algorithm on there really loves weenie ridge to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Could someone kindly give me QPF on Euro for Southern Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 good event to be near dendrite's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I have boundary layer issues, but I'm not all that far off from Kevin. If it trends colder for him..I have a better shot for frozen so I want it to go south as much as he does. I'm just not so sure in that trend yet and don't completely buy it at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Could someone kindly give me QPF on Euro for Southern Maine? If you read my post back a page it was .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The wunderground maps are out....and there is a ton of evap cooling between 42h and 45h (09z Fri)...it actually rips the 850 0C line down to like LI sound for a time before lifting it back up over Kevin's head at 12z. The weenie snow algorithm on there really loves weenie ridge to get smoked. Wetbulbing will be big in this I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The wunderground maps are out....and there is a ton of evap cooling between 42h and 45h (09z Fri)...it actually rips the 850 0C line down to like LI sound for a time before lifting it back up over Kevin's head at 12z. The weenie snow algorithm on there really loves weenie ridge to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If you read my post back a page it was .50" OK, thanks, didn't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The weenie maps follow the 925mb gradient. The gradient almost aligns WNW-ESE by 12z Friday and it shows up in the snow graphic. It's that push from HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ginx those maps would have had me getting about 20" of snow so far this year versus 2". In marginal situations they've busted each time in the intermix zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ginx those maps would have had me getting about 20" of snow so far this year versus 2". In marginal situations they've busted each time in the intermix zone. I just post um not believe um. Will pointed it out I posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 good event to be near dendrite's place. I'm cautiously optimistic. Either I get the deformationhang backs snow to pile up a couple of inches or I make up for it in a warmer, higher QPF scenario. There's no BL concerns here either.Scoot...idk if you knew this, but I just realized the "RH" on the WU maps is the H5-H7-H85 mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think I'm going need a tick north to get real accumulation...need to get into that banding over southern NY to get decent cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro has some lt snows here on monday as it develops a low well east of Maine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm cautiously optimistic. Either I get the deformationhang backs snow to pile up a couple of inches or I make up for it in a warmer, higher QPF scenario. There's no BL concerns here either. Scoot...idk if you knew this, but I just realized the "RH" on the WU maps is the H5-H7-H85 mean. No way..how did you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm cautiously optimistic. Either I get the deformationhang backs snow to pile up a couple of inches or I make up for it in a warmer, higher QPF scenario. There's no BL concerns here either. Scoot...idk if you knew this, but I just realized the "RH" on the WU maps is the H5-H7-H85 mean. There's probably going to be two snow maxima...one just north of the mix line like is often the case in these setups (12/13/07, 12/19/08) and another where some weenie band forms well to the north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 So far being on the mild lake is just a negative for BUF this winter...one modest LES event two weeks ago excepted. Looks good for my cousins at 2300 ft. in Allegany County. I think I'm going need a tick north to get real accumulation...need to get into that banding over southern NY to get decent cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 There's probably going to be two snow maxima...one just north of the mix line like is often the case in these setups (12/13/07, 12/19/08) and another where some weenie band forms well to the north of that. Yeah right in that omega bullseye, and then up in deformation land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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