Snow Bow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think we have a shot for a couple of inches on Friday...maybe more if things pan out right and we get in on the deeper RH/deformation snows to give us some better ratios (assuming we're below 32F at 2m). The pixie dust inv trough snows may be light, but enough to sparkle things up and add to the festive mood as well. Nice, gives me a bit more hope than I had after seeing the guidance slip south with the more meaningful qpf, and the sref probs weren't looking so hot at last check either. I understand this storm can only go so far north with the confluence, but I think i had heard that for the 11/27 storm too and it managed to get a good ways north in the final 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nope. Solid 3" It's the most wonderful time of the year. Nasty out here right now. It gon' snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm def drawing a blank on that...I don't know. There were some non-SWFEs that might have done that, but I cannot think of any SWFEs that did that recently. I could just be completely forgetting one, but I'd need to see a date of the storm. It's either Feb. 21st or March 24th I'm thinking of. The PSU Narr is down for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 O/T but just noticed thw two Davis stations in my neighborhood up north are holding onto the cold longer than forecast. Currently 26.3 at 700' and 31.3 at 1600'. My cabin is right in the middle @ 1100' and I'm guessing is pretty glazed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 FWIW it's 27.8F with pouring ZR here right now so the low level cold for this torch event is overperforming here. I know it usually does in CAD/insitu situations, but I figured we'd be around 32F by now. Of course BTV is torched so this may mean nothing for Friday, but I thought I'd throw it out there. kinda what I was trying to say earlier....that the cold has been overperforming recently (tends to do that this time of year) and wondering if that has any implications down the road. But this is also what happened in 07-08 yes? Lakes Region cold air dammed and held snowpack while even northern NH warmed up from time to time and melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 wasn't that least year that we had a SW flow event that actually hit NJ and Long Island harder than most of SNE? two: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm02212011.html and http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm03242011.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 FWIW it's 27.8F with pouring ZR here right now so the low level cold for this torch event is overperforming here. I know it usually does in CAD/insitu situations, but I figured we'd be around 32F by now. Of course BTV is torched so this may mean nothing for Friday, but I thought I'd throw it out there. the low level cold tends to overperform as well as the mid level warmth gliding on top of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's either Feb. 21st or March 24th I'm thinking of. The PSU Narr is down for now Both of those were almost acting like clipper storms coming out of the west...I suppose they could almost be considered SWFEs. None of them had any type of gulf connection and I think the mid-level circulation stayed south of 41N. They were def crunched by confluence though, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 the low level cold tends to overperform as well as the mid level warmth gliding on top of it Well that was my point. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's the most wonderful time of the year. Nasty out here right now. It gon' snow. Not today! the low level cold tends to overperform as well as the mid level warmth gliding on top of it Expecting that mid-level warmth to slide down any moment here. 32.5/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Both of those were almost acting like clipper storms coming out of the west...I suppose they could almost be considered SWFEs. None of them had any type of gulf connection and I think the mid-level circulation stayed south of 41N. They were def crunched by confluence though, that's for sure. I was thinking of Feb. 21st. I saw forky's link...that thing went through the shredder as it got further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ouch on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ouch on the euro. north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Wagon's north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 In what sense? LOL Ouch on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro is very similar to GFS, but its def colder in the BL...but the ML temps look similar. The 0C line is like over Kevin's head at 12z Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Sick thermal gradient though. Looks good for Will and dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ouch on the euro. what's it look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ouch on the euro. there's nothing to stop it from coming NW... look at the big area of positive height anomalies to the east of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like a flip to SN for a lot of people at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I hope we don't have mixing issues on tonight's runs. Wagon's north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 North and looks better up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 what's it look like? 850 line right near the MA/CT border at 12z, but collapses south shortly after. Would flip interior high spots and maybe even BOS over to snow..maybe inch or two for Kevin. Edit, maybe inch...it's close for him. Probably cat paws for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL..Scooter says Ouch and Will says good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Sick thermal gradient though. Looks good for Will and dave. Weenie ridge jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Obviously we need to find some way to get Kevin an inch or two for Christmas. 850 line right near the MA/CT border at 12z, but collapses south shortly after. Would flip interior high spots and maybe even BOS over to snow..maybe inch or two for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL..Scooter says Ouch and Will says good I guess you didn't read what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 0.50" up to RUT-CON by 54hr. Looks OK north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I guess you didn't read what he said. I did...with the colder BL which means it's picking up on the ll cold like the NAM and is what we wanted to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I did...with the colder BL Yeah but mid levels are a little warmer. You are a trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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