CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Solid hit for much of SNE..and temp profile while not as cold closer to NAM/Srefs/RGEM You are barely below 0C on that at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 You are barely below 0C on that at 850. It looks almost identical to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 You are barely below 0C on that at 850. Correct and is why it's closer to meso models than GFS trash. I'd expect the Euro to be close to the Ukie and not quite as cold as the srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 GGEM is out on ewall...it looks kind of between the GFS and the NAM..prob a little closer to GFS...it looks similar to last night's Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Correct and is why it's closer to meso models than GFS trash. I'd expect the Euro to be close to the Ukie and not quite as cold as the srefs It's closer to the GFS..lol. It doesn't mean it is right, just correcting you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 ORH looks dangerously close to getting sleet on gfs bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Solid hit for much of SNE..and temp profile while not as cold closer to NAM/Srefs/RGEM It would help if they identified the 0* contour for those of us who have difficulty discerning the colors. I'm on the cusp of .25/.375. So, 2-3 looks reasonable there. Still looks like the Masspike west of 395 looks best. 32.8/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GGEM is out on ewall...it looks kind of between the GFS and the NAM..prob a little closer to GFS...it looks similar to last night's Euro Any other period we would ALL be licking our chops, just shows how bad this pattern has been and how warm the air mass is preceeding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 FWIW it's 27.8F with pouring ZR here right now so the low level cold for this torch event is overperforming here. I know it usually does in CAD/insitu situations, but I figured we'd be around 32F by now. Of course BTV is torched so this may mean nothing for Friday, but I thought I'd throw it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 what a nasty SE ridge/greenland vortex combination... i'm on the north train with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 FWIW it's 27.8F with pouring ZR here right now so the low level cold for this torch event is overperforming here. I know it usually does in CAD/insitu situations, but I figured we'd be around 32F by now. Of course BTV is torched so this may mean nothing for Friday, but I thought I'd throw it out there. What did the GFS have you progged at for this time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 ORH looks dangerously close to getting sleet on gfs bufkit As I normally say in SWFEs....I'm more worried about sleet than a whiff to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 What did the GFS have you progged at for this time period? LOL, warm...and so was the NAM. It doesn't really mean anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think that's my only shot, unless the Christmas storm somehow tries to side swipe me. Maybe I somehow manage an inch Friday, but I think my boundary layer will kill me for a while. Yeah, Your torching at the onset of the precip, It going to be how fast you can cool before you lose the qpf, It may be tough where you are, Thats where you need to hope you get a Nam like scenario, OT but what an ice rink outside up here accidents everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 FWIW it's 27.8F with pouring ZR here right now so the low level cold for this torch event is overperforming here. I know it usually does in CAD/insitu situations, but I figured we'd be around 32F by now. Of course BTV is torched so this may mean nothing for Friday, but I thought I'd throw it out there. Not to get into obs in the wrong thread but your holding onto the cold better than I, just a hair under freezing imby still. You think we get much of anything to give us a white xmas in our areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 What did the GFS have you progged at for this time period? I'm not sure what the 2m temps were, but I'm sure the GFS was too high. We're out performing the NAM 2m temps as well. It's probably nothing related to what will happen Friday since my little nook in central NH experiencing the CAD/pouring ZR is on the meso-beta scale.Now that I look BTV is actually warmer than progged so it's just a case of knowing your geography and playing the 2m biases for CAD I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 FWIW it's 27.8F with pouring ZR here right now so the low level cold for this torch event is overperforming here. I know it usually does in CAD/insitu situations, but I figured we'd be around 32F by now. Of course BTV is torched so this may mean nothing for Friday, but I thought I'd throw it out there. Close but no cigar here. Steady rain, but at 32.6/30. Perhaps a little zr if the ground retained any cold, but meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 As I normally say in SWFEs....I'm more worried about sleet than a whiff to the south. wasn't that least year that we had a SW flow event that actually hit NJ and Long Island harder than most of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yeah, Your torching at the onset of the precip, It going to be how fast you can cool before you lose the qpf, It may be tough where you are, Thats where you need to hope you get a Nam like scenario, OT but what an ice rink outside up here accidents everywhere I am surprised no advisories were up, you guys were frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 wasn't that least year that we had a SW flow event that actually hit NJ and Long Island harder than most of SNE? That would have been the SWE that actually gave CT more snow than ip. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Not to get into obs in the wrong thread but your holding onto the cold better than I, just a hair under freezing imby still. You think we get much of anything to give us a white xmas in our areas? I think we have a shot for a couple of inches on Friday...maybe more if things pan out right and we get in on the deeper RH/deformation snows to give us some better ratios (assuming we're below 32F at 2m). The pixie dust inv trough snows may be light, but enough to sparkle things up and add to the festive mood as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I am surprised no advisories were up, you guys were frigid. GYX tossed them out in there AFD this am, WWA, Yeah we were 8.4F here last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 wasn't that least year that we had a SW flow event that actually hit NJ and Long Island harder than most of SNE? I don't recall any that did that. We had a few SWFEs last year...off the top of my head they were 1/18, 2/1-2, 2/25 I might be missing one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I don't recall any that did that. We had a few SWFEs last year...off the top of my head they were 1/18, 2/1-2, 2/25 I might be missing one. Newport might have gotten the most snow in SNE...perhaps it was the year before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 fyp Merry Christmas Kev. I think the GFS will likely be a tad warm in this kind of setup and the NAM will likely be too cold. 10-20mi on either side of the Rt2 to I-90 corridor in MA will be the schweet spot on this one. Pete may end up with the most imo. That's what I'm thinking too. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Newport might have gotten the most snow in SNE...perhaps it was the year before? I'm def drawing a blank on that...I don't know. There were some non-SWFEs that might have done that, but I cannot think of any SWFEs that did that recently. I could just be completely forgetting one, but I'd need to see a date of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That's what I'm thinking too. Lol. Of course you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Of course you are. Am I totally off base? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Am I totally off base? No you'll do fine I think. Just kidding around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Am I totally off base? Nope. Solid 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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