CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 What are you thinkin for 1k over here? Ski area "summit" is 1.1k, their base is 550. Would be nice to get even a couple of inches of replenishment. Yeah I can see that for you..maybe even 2-4 if things break out right. The latitude may be a bit of an issue so I think you're going to wait another 12-18hrs or so and see how things look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 wow I am an IDIOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GGEM thickness seem to be a bit warmer, but I personally don't see any drastic changes. The 700-1000mb thickness was a little warmer so it may be primarily a mid-level tick north with the low levels holding firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It would be pretty cirrus, though. Take the GFS and run!!!! 33.9/26. Out for a quick walk before the rains. I saw some weenie flakes this morning on Rte 2 in Leominster (THE Plastics City) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That would be sweet even though its highly unlikely What would be chagriningly funny (not a word...) is if it were right on QPF but correcting colder because of the usual headaches surrounding resolution in the boundary layer and critical thickness depths, and viola. 14" of warning snow and very littel leading coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I saw some weenie flakes this morning on Rte 2 in Leominster (THE Plastics City) Every time I see that sign I laugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'll take my 10 cm and uh run? hahaha Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Every time I see that sign I laugh... Just remember Tip w/o the miracle of plastics there would be no Frisbee golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ukie Then it keeps the inverted trof snows up toward BML/IZG although it appears it will slam the vort through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ukie Then it keeps the inverted trof snows up toward BML/IZG although it appears it will slam the vort through SNE. closer to the GFS. not too surprising really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Just remember Tip w/o the miracle of plastics there would be no Frisbee golf. Ftw ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GEFS fwiw are a bit slower and a shade warmer than the op, but a pretty good match there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 12z ensembles were north and quite warm, 546 thickness right over rays head.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GEFS fwiw are a bit slower and a shade warmer than the op, but a pretty good match there. the NAM is so much colder than anything else out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 12z ensembles were north and quite warm, 546 thickness right over rays head.. What site are you using for this, Jeff? 33.0/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 the NAM is so much colder than anything else out there. I know it. I'm really not excited at all outside of the hills of ORH and maybe nrn mass/srn NH. Kevin maybe as well..but it's still a little shaky even for him. I just see this as waiting for cat paw crap trying to change over, and then maybe it does flip to 34 -SN..only to be melted an hour later. At least for my area. And this isn't the GFS swaying me...I just see it as that right now. Maybe I'll change my tune later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 the NAM is so much colder than anything else out there. There's something to be said for outliers. Typically, what can be said is that they're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 What site are you using for this, Jeff? 33.0/29 I use SV, Its similar to the op, Maybe just a tic north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The GEFS have a decent inv trough signal from ern mass into NNE anyways. I think that is my best shot..not comforting hoping for inv trough snow but that's all I may have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GEFS fwiw are a bit slower and a shade warmer than the op, but a pretty good match there. Don't even factor it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Knowing model bias, its hard to go against a Euro Gfs blend, I would think accumulating snowfall would be limited to northern orh and west, maybe extreme nw ct up by norfolk for an inch or two. IMO the GFS has been fairly consistent with this system and was the first to sniff out the non storm for xmas, it should actually do pretty well in a swfe regime, even though 2m thermal profiles might be a tad too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 There's something to be said for outliers. Typically, what can be said is that they're wrong. Well the meso models may be onto something. We'll see what the Euro shows. Its resolution is basically mesoscale anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Knowing model bias, its hard to go against a Euro Gfs blend, I would think accumulating snowfall would be limited to northern orh and west, maybe extreme nw ct up by norfolk for an inch or two. IMO the GFS has been fairly consistent with this system and was the first to sniff out the non storm for xmas, it should actually do pretty well in a swfe regime, even though 2m thermal profiles might be a tad too warm. I think I would have to agree with you here. Things have just been terrible so far and this set-up is nothing to get excited about really. I remember at one point we thought maybe the rain we're getting today could be a front end thump of snow/ice. It just seems like if it can be warmer, it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think I would have to agree with you here. Things have just been terrible so far and this set-up is nothing to get excited about really. I remember at one point we thought maybe the rain we're getting today could be a front end thump of snow/ice. It just seems like if it can be warmer, it will be. 11/23 trended colder for me at the last moment and I ended up with over 7". I wouldn't hang your head quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Don't even factor it in. You need to throw it out its garbage, I don't even know why people would even consider it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 11/23 trended colder for me at the last moment and I ended up with over 7". I wouldn't hang your head quite yet. That was one where the NAM actually scored a coup at this time range....it went way colder, and I was skeptical, but it turned out to be onto something. I think it originally went too cold showing warning snow all the way down to just south of the MA/NH border, but it still had the trend correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The GEFS have a decent inv trough signal from ern mass into NNE anyways. I think that is my best shot..not comforting hoping for inv trough snow but that's all I may have. It looked better down towards you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 11/23 trended colder for me at the last moment and I ended up with over 7". I wouldn't hang your head quite yet. Hmm..alright then maybe it is on again off again. I don't remember that one I probably didn't pay much attention since I knew it was rain here. I just remember 12/7 it blew it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It looked better down towards you.. I think that's my only shot, unless the Christmas storm somehow tries to side swipe me. Maybe I somehow manage an inch Friday, but I think my boundary layer will kill me for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ukie Then it keeps the inverted trof snows up toward BML/IZG although it appears it will slam the vort through SNE. Solid hit for much of SNE..and temp profile while not as cold closer to NAM/Srefs/RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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