CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 it would start wet, flip to snow, then actually taper to drizzle by the looks of it. before new snow showers/flurries developed overnight. we'll see. NAM is by far the coldest product i've scene. i'd love for that to verify but i'm not on board yet. what we tend to see with these southern streamers is they are juicier, warmer, faster and end up further north. maybe this bucks the trend with the placement of the HP to the NNW instead of NNE...who knows. fingers crossed i guess. I think that's a good description of what might happen. Maybe something like mid to upper 30s for high, then temps drop towards nightfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 RGEM is kind of a torch...it would put you right on the line. You'd prob want something just a shade colder than RGEM. RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think that's a good description of what might happen. Maybe something like mid to upper 30s for high, then temps drop towards nightfall. yeah i was just looking at the NAM more closely and that's pretty much what it does. it actually has "a lot" of lift in the low levels friday night along the coast up into BOS...even actually most of the day saturday out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 RGEM is kind of a torch...it would put you right on the line. You'd prob want something just a shade colder than RGEM. It has more issues with deermining the snow/rain lines..but I just meant the overall setup , track, qpf etc. I think most of SNE is going to walk away from this event happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It might get moneypitmike's qpf fetish going, lol. I know noone has agreed with me but i don't think this has any room to come north and never did ..the south trend seems real based on the cold push from the north. That being said I'd bet we see a levelling off soon as that SE ridge won't let this come too far south. Ironically, I actually was looking at things other than the qpf maps the last two days and saying "things don't look good here" and that it would be tough to get it north. We'll see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That would be great for news headlines Saturday. Instead of seeing frisbees thrown around and news anchors commenting on house nice it is outside, top stories would be people scraping off the cars and idiots sliding off the roads. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If it doesn't level off soon its gonna be dry from here to MPM and HUbbDave.... arghhh, not looking good for us in N ORH cnty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Isn't there a super tool out there, that ingests all the runs and averages all fields, and then outputs a mean depiction - That would be interesting... (ECM+GGEM+RGEM+NAM+GFS+"GONAPS"+JMA+(WRF perturbations)+(teleconnector corrections))/ n = guide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ironically, I actually was looking at things other than the qpf maps the last two days and saying "things don't look good here" and that it would be tough to get it north. We'll see..... I think you'll still be ok. If not....oopsie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 i think the gfs is still going to be quite mild/north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS is a little faster, and maybe slightly warmer than 06z..but could be a product of speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I am riding the GFS to give me a White Christmas. I just want an inch or two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 i think the gfs is still going to be quite mild/north Looks a hair faster through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Actually at hr 42..it's not terribly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 gfs would be hard pressed to be frozen anywhere S of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 No matter what it does.. DO NOT FACTOR IT IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Still a torch south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS still really warm in the mid-levels...that is cutting it close for here even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 arghhh, not looking good for us in N ORH cnty. We'll be smoking cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This is a classic case of the GFS adding more confusion than assistance. Garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 No matter what it does.. DO NOT FACTOR IT IN i agree for now...06z ensemble mean was significantly cooler than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 No matter what it does.. DO NOT FACTOR IT IN What if it came south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's actually a little stronger and beefier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 No matter what it does.. DO NOT FACTOR IT IN lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 low starts out further east but there is just the slightest tug northward as the PV retrogrades west a bit and allows heights to rise over Quebec with the slightest phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's probably not seeing the cooling going on as much as it should, but it's still toasty as it is furthest north of all guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 What if it came south? Hence why I said no matter what it does. It shouldn't be used or factored in by anyone making a forecast. We are better off as a met community without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 What if it came south? He is pretty good about always discounting it...It could show a 18" snowstorm and he would say toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hence why I said no matter what it does. It shouldn't be used or factored in by anyone making a forecast. We are better off as a met community without it. It's guidance like anything else. Part of the reason why you shouldn't throw all your eggs in one basket with this. We know what the biases are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS is a little faster, and maybe slightly warmer than 06z..but could be a product of speed. Scott my whole office is sitting here in anticipation. An guess for just south BOS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.