Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I know noone has agreed with me but i don't think this has any room to come north and never did ..the south trend seems real based on the cold push from the north. That being said I'd bet we see a levelling off soon as that SE ridge won't let this come too far south. I'm not convinced it the H to the N as much as it is the northern stream s/w flexing itself in the last couple model cycles. I think the NAM is overdoing this right now and it will come back N some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Good animation. You can see how the S/W in the southwest has actually shifted west a bit. This probably allows for the nrn stream to shift further se as the 500 heights are more compressible. I'm still going to wait for the other guidance to see if it is real. My gut says the GFS at least may tick se. Same here just starting to take notice of the event. I like what I see for interior SNE but am thinking the shift SE may be real and appear on the other guidance this run. I decided against doing it for the QPF maps because I didn't want to hear it. But the shift is even more evident there on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 WCVB Ch 5's internal model was showing some of that this morning That's our weenie RPM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM really likes E MA for some inverted trough snow overnight 23rd into 24th. yes, looks great, I've given up on the x-mas storm at this point, I'm excited to go out and post observations with Ray on our 1-2" of snow.. and then make fun of that dude in Arlington who always gets 2X what we get.. I forget who that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I remember like Saturday when the Euro was the only model to have this snow event..and Ryan said he was tossing it. Was it the euro showing it? I don't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 i think the NAM is actually snow right to the coast...at least based on those crude twisterdata soundings. it's a very cold run. only the immediate surface that's "mild" and it's like 2C. not sure i believe it, but verbatim, i think it goes frozen everywhere. If I ended up with a White Christmas again this year - 3 in a row...that has to be some type of record. Not likely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Xmas Eve could be really cold if that northern stream that tries to enhance the inverted trough comes right over us. It has like -12C 850s with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Good animation. You can see how the S/W in the southwest has actually shifted west a bit. This probably allows for the nrn stream to shift further se as the 500 heights are more compressible. I'm still going to wait for the other guidance to see if it is real. My gut says the GFS at least may tick se. I can deal with a tick and no more, soon I will be out of the good 1-2" snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Was it the euro showing it? I don't remember. The 12z run on Sunday showed it I remember. It was about 120h at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Xmas Eve could be really cold if that northern stream that tries to enhance the inverted trough comes right over us. It has like -12C 850s with it. change of attire for Santa? I am sure he is not reading posts here, I hope he is not caught of guard with the recent warm weather in NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Wow the cape is a winter wonderland for 48 hours straight, and its damn cold too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If I ended up with a White Christmas again this year - 3 in a row...that has to be some type of record. Not likely to happen. it would start wet, flip to snow, then actually taper to drizzle by the looks of it. before new snow showers/flurries developed overnight. we'll see. NAM is by far the coldest product i've scene. i'd love for that to verify but i'm not on board yet. what we tend to see with these southern streamers is they are juicier, warmer, faster and end up further north. maybe this bucks the trend with the placement of the HP to the NNW instead of NNE...who knows. fingers crossed i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That would be a bummer if I manage to miss every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 09z SREFs just came in a bit compressed and colder...that would be some good news for those living on the edge like Kevin and maybe Steve. Good news, thanks for the update. Starting to feel it a little. A white Christmas is always nice. There are cracks in the armor of the LR, good to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 yes, looks great, I've given up on the x-mas storm at this point, I'm excited to go out and post observations with Ray on our 1-2" of snow.. and then make fun of that dude in Arlington who always gets 2X what we get.. I forget who that is. That was I and it was verified numerous times... My fathers house burns to the ground. I can barely walk, the ex is on the verge of passing. No conversation with family in over three years. And to be called out on such an insignificant BS.... Well happy friggin holidays to you and yours This forum has reached an alltime low. DELETE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Was it the euro showing it? I don't remember. Yes it was either Saturday or Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 it would start wet, flip to snow, then actually taper to drizzle by the looks of it. before new snow showers/flurries developed overnight. we'll see. NAM is by far the coldest product i've scene. i'd love for that to verify but i'm not on board yet. what we tend to see with these southern streamers is they are juicier, warmer, faster and end up further north. maybe this bucks the trend with the placement of the HP to the NNW instead of NNE...who knows. fingers crossed i guess. Tough to say on the other guidance. The NAM is now flatter than the 6z GFS. The SREF's going south to me is a big indication the other guidance is going south too, or most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 nam clown maps actually do have snow right to the immediate S shores of CT/RI/MA/Cape/MVY. i don't think the euro would have been a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That was I and it was verified numerous times... My fathers house burns to the ground. I can barely walk, the ex is on the verge of passing. No conversation with family in over three years. And to be called out on such an insignificant BS.... Well happy friggin holidays to you and yours This forum has reached an alltime low. DELETE! Hey now........ Sorry for your tough times Don, life is difficult sometimes, and we all have our issues, but enjoy the snow, take solice in friends and remeber whatever good times you had with the ex to carry you through. Houses can be rebuilt life cant, stay strong and have a merry christmas. A blanket of snow is a renewal, a fresh start. Stay strong, and thirsty my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That was I and it was verified numerous times... My fathers house burns to the ground. I can barely walk, the ex is on the verge of passing. No conversation with family in over three years. And to be called out on such an insignificant BS.... Well happy friggin holidays to you and yours This forum has reached an alltime low. DELETE! Sorry to hear that. My dad's in the hospital right now with severe blood clotting pretty much all over with new ones in his legs. We found out yesterday that he probably won't be home till after Christmas. You aren't alone. You and your family are in my prayers. That said, first call IMBY: 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Throwing this out as we await the rest of the guidance: Noted last night that the NAM was on the far western envelope very early and likely wrong at 0z. NCEP said the same. All other 0z guidance was somewhat less robust. Comments have been made - correct ones - that the SREF is playing catch up. 6z NAM shifted SE. SREFs at 9z shifted south. 12z NAM shifted even further SE SREFs are likely still playing catchup on the shift SE that is currently occuring and maybe we will see the same shift in the upcoming GFS. Doesn't mean it's final but my bet would be on a colder more surpressed GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If it doesn't level off soon its gonna be dry from here to MPM and HUbbDave.... I know noone has agreed with me but i don't think this has any room to come north and never did ..the south trend seems real based on the cold push from the north. That being said I'd bet we see a levelling off soon as that SE ridge won't let this come too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Throwing this out as we await the rest of the guidance: Noted last night that the NAM was on the far western envelope very early and likely wrong at 0z. NCEP said the same. All other 0z guidance was somewhat less robust. Comments have been made - correct ones - that the SREF is playing catch up. 6z NAM shifted SE. SREFs at 9z shifted south. 12z NAM shifted even further SE SREFs are likely still playing catchup on the shift SE that is currently occuring and maybe we will see the same shift in the upcoming GFS. Doesn't mean it's final but my bet would be on a colder more surpressed GFS I thought the 00z NAM was south of most guidance. It was by far the coldest. GFS had significant precip up into NNE...NAM def did not. Euro was a compromise but definitely more toward the GFS. GGEM looked more like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 RGEM is a little north of the NAM 36-48 hr frame frame it drops .2 to north of ALB over to about Nashua, .4" to PSF. More to fall in NE post 48.... I thought the 00z NAM was south of most guidance. It was by far the coldest. GFS had significant precip up into NNE...NAM def did not. Euro was a compromise but definitely more toward the GFS. GGEM looked more like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I thought the 00z NAM was south of most guidance. It was by far the coldest. GFS had significant precip up into NNE...NAM def did not. Euro was a compromise but definitely more toward the GFS. GGEM looked more like the NAM. yeah i think since about the 18z run yesterday the NAM has been coldest and furthest S. yesterday's 06 and 12 runs were much milder...more so than the euro and gfs even i think. i didn't look too closely, but it looked to me like the euro was even a tad milder on its 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 RGEM is a little north of the NAM 36-48 hr frame frame it drops .2 to north of ALB over to about Nashua, .4" to PSF. More to fall in NE post 48.... RGEM tends to do well with these types of setups. i remember last year it nailed a coupe of these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 yeah i think since about the 18z run yesterday the NAM has been coldest and furthest S. yesterday's 06 and 12 runs were much milder...more so than the euro and gfs even i think. i didn't look too closely, but it looked to me like the euro was even a tad milder on its 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z. I wish I could see the euro weenie maps, but at least there doesn't appear to be a sneaky warm layer for most. It's just the boundary layer for most lower/cstl spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 RGEM tends to do well with these types of setups. i remember last year it nailed a coupe of these RGEM is kind of a torch...it would put you right on the line. You'd prob want something just a shade colder than RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Its game on! Love these events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Except I always find the RGEM 850 0C line to be displaced too far north... In this case it has it from like Tolland back to the mid HV at h48 which I think is probably too warm.... RGEM tends to do well with these types of setups. i remember last year it nailed a coupe of these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.