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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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Not surprising the SREFs came somewhat south. The NAM will likely prove to have been too robust/nw. GFS and Euro compromise maybe and we'll see the NAM itself trend that way?

You mean the GFS? The NAM wasn't that far nw. I'm a little surprised they came south. There is only so much room to come north, but I didn't expect it to happen this early. If anything..I thought there was wiggle room north for the next 18-24 hrs. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does...I wouldn't buy it quite yet..just because the SREFs show this.

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You mean the GFS? The NAM wasn't that far nw. I'm a little surprised they came south. There is only so much room to come north, but I didn't expect it to happen this early. If anything..I thought there was wiggle room north for the next 18-24 hrs. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does...I wouldn't buy it quite yet..just because the SREFs show this.

Sometimes we have to be careful about the meso models in these events...we've seen them come too far suppressed and cold in the past around this time frame only to go back NW in the final 36h...I think if the other global models comes in a bit south at 12z...not just the NAM or 09z SREFs....then it might be legit.

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Will, just curious, is this anything like the synoptic setup prior to your favorite mystery event, 12/23/97? Just wondering since this is coincidentally the same day.

Eh, not really..there are some vague similarities but enough different that I do not think I'm worrying about a repeat.

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You mean the GFS? The NAM wasn't that far nw. I'm a little surprised they came south. There is only so much room to come north, but I didn't expect it to happen this early. If anything..I thought there was wiggle room north for the next 18-24 hrs. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does...I wouldn't buy it quite yet..just because the SREFs show this.

Scott not saying much beyond what I said last night at midnight...that the NAM was starting too far west as it came out of the deep south and that's being demonstrated this morning by the east shift on the 12z even from the 6z.

In turn I think that means it won't be as far north in the end later in this run.

Then we walk the fine line between losing the dynamics on a less amped storm and ending up with a GFS ish solution.

These two things go hand in hand and the SREF's coming south already doesn't make me feel "great" like it is others. Just being honest. It's a needle thread as you have all said.

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Scott not saying much beyond what I said last night at midnight...that the NAM was starting too far west as it came out of the deep south and that's being demonstrated this morning by the east shift on the 12z even from the 6z.

In turn I think that means it won't be as far north in the end later in this run.

Then we walk the fine line between losing the dynamics on a less amped storm and ending up with a GFS ish solution.

These two things go hand in hand and the SREF's coming south already doesn't make me feel "great" like it is others. Just being honest. It's a needle thread as you have all said.

The nrn edge of the precip shield will be ok I think. There isn't a linear relationship where the closer you are to the low, that better the dynamics are.

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LOL congrats Kev and Bob?

I think Will is right in waiting for the globals to come around to see if this is the trend. The nrn stream has flexed in guidance in the last 12 hrs.

Looks like BL issues are still there in southern regions...but it does look like it would flip to wet snow even in the CP of MA and interior SE MA by 12z.

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LOL congrats Kev and Bob?

I think Will is right in waiting for the globals to come around to see if this is the trend. The nrn stream has flexed in guidance in the last 12 hrs.

This sort of reminds me of 12/13/07 (a mini version). I remember it was north, then came way south as the NYC folks celebrated, then last minute came back north with the sleet line to PVD.

Different animal, but hopefully same trends. :snowman:

Also, morning meteorologists not biting....always frustrating.

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Looks like they flash to a 34F light snow or something near 12z. Good run for Kevin.

We will see what the other guidance thinks but I think Steve to Bob are probably in a good zone and probably Kevin too....if this NAM trend continues even Phil and I could be in the green zone. The NAM wasn't sniffing out anything re the gradient, it was the NAM being the NAM outside of 42 hours...useless.

But the NAM shift SE is undeniable, here are the last three runs and this scares me Scott because I argued the point last night with John that the NAM was too far west to start/amped, and it appears it was. It's now correcting towards the faster guidance and we run a really fine line in that regard.

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I know noone has agreed with me but i don't think this has any room to come north and never did ..the south trend seems real based on the cold push from the north. That being said I'd bet we see a levelling off soon as that SE ridge won't let this come too far south.

Well we'll see what the other guidance does. if that comes south, then we may have a trend..but will level off too.

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We will see what the other guidance thinks but I think Steve to Bob are probably in a good zone and probably Kevin too....if this NAM trend continues even Phil and I could be in the green zone.

But the NAM shift SE is undeniable, here are the last three runs and this scares me Scott because I argued the point last night with John that the NAM was too far west to start/amped, and it appears it was. It's now correcting towards the faster guidance and we run a really fine line in that regard.

Good animation. You can see how the S/W in the southwest has actually shifted west a bit. This probably allows for the nrn stream to shift further se as the 500 heights are more compressible. I'm still going to wait for the other guidance to see if it is real. My gut says the GFS at least may tick se.

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I know noone has agreed with me but i don't think this has any room to come north and never did ..the south trend seems real based on the cold push from the north. That being said I'd bet we see a levelling off soon as that SE ridge won't let this come too far south.

There's still concern for a north jump...the vortmax travels across SNE which traditionally means the best forcing is north of where the NAM is trying to put it. Its getting sheared out, so there are multiple components acting on this system....but just because there is a cold push from the north, doesn't mean it cannot tick north and counter that cold push...how do you think all the past SWFEs pushed north as we got into the final couple days even with a high to our north?

Its a balancing act and opposing forces...the hard part is guess which one ends up winning out.

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There's still concern for a north jump...the vortmax travels across SNE which traditionally means the best forcing is north of where the NAM is trying to put it. Its getting sheared out, so there are multiple components acting on this system....but just because there is a cold push from the north, doesn't mean it cannot tick north and counter that cold push...how do you think all the past SWFEs pushed north as we got into the final couple days even with a high to our north?

Its a balancing act and opposing forces...the hard part is guess which one ends up winning out.

Good summary. It's actually not as bad as QPF makes it out to be. Nice weenie band near the Pike I think based on 500 track and deformation area.

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