HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Wow. Congrats Kevin I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Not surprising the SREFs came somewhat south. The NAM will likely prove to have been too robust/nw. GFS and Euro compromise maybe and we'll see the NAM itself trend that way? You mean the GFS? The NAM wasn't that far nw. I'm a little surprised they came south. There is only so much room to come north, but I didn't expect it to happen this early. If anything..I thought there was wiggle room north for the next 18-24 hrs. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does...I wouldn't buy it quite yet..just because the SREFs show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Will, just curious, is this anything like the synoptic setup prior to your favorite mystery event, 12/23/97? Just wondering since this is coincidentally the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 You mean the GFS? The NAM wasn't that far nw. I'm a little surprised they came south. There is only so much room to come north, but I didn't expect it to happen this early. If anything..I thought there was wiggle room north for the next 18-24 hrs. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does...I wouldn't buy it quite yet..just because the SREFs show this. Sometimes we have to be careful about the meso models in these events...we've seen them come too far suppressed and cold in the past around this time frame only to go back NW in the final 36h...I think if the other global models comes in a bit south at 12z...not just the NAM or 09z SREFs....then it might be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Will, just curious, is this anything like the synoptic setup prior to your favorite mystery event, 12/23/97? Just wondering since this is coincidentally the same day. Eh, not really..there are some vague similarities but enough different that I do not think I'm worrying about a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 You mean the GFS? The NAM wasn't that far nw. I'm a little surprised they came south. There is only so much room to come north, but I didn't expect it to happen this early. If anything..I thought there was wiggle room north for the next 18-24 hrs. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does...I wouldn't buy it quite yet..just because the SREFs show this. Scott not saying much beyond what I said last night at midnight...that the NAM was starting too far west as it came out of the deep south and that's being demonstrated this morning by the east shift on the 12z even from the 6z. In turn I think that means it won't be as far north in the end later in this run. Then we walk the fine line between losing the dynamics on a less amped storm and ending up with a GFS ish solution. These two things go hand in hand and the SREF's coming south already doesn't make me feel "great" like it is others. Just being honest. It's a needle thread as you have all said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Scott not saying much beyond what I said last night at midnight...that the NAM was starting too far west as it came out of the deep south and that's being demonstrated this morning by the east shift on the 12z even from the 6z. In turn I think that means it won't be as far north in the end later in this run. Then we walk the fine line between losing the dynamics on a less amped storm and ending up with a GFS ish solution. These two things go hand in hand and the SREF's coming south already doesn't make me feel "great" like it is others. Just being honest. It's a needle thread as you have all said. The nrn edge of the precip shield will be ok I think. There isn't a linear relationship where the closer you are to the low, that better the dynamics are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 9z ETA is cold at 850. 0c 850 line is S of LI the hole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nam looks like it a hair east and weaker with the low coming out of the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 wow..nam is going to be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 wow..nam is going to be cold. Yeah no kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 wow..nam is going to be cold. It might get moneypitmike's qpf fetish going, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 wow..nam is going to be cold. But also SE of the 6z. Good and bad, we're walking a very fine line especially considering it's the NAM outside of 42 which has been on the western/nw side of the guidance envelope for 2-3 cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL congrats Kev and Bob? I think Will is right in waiting for the globals to come around to see if this is the trend. The nrn stream has flexed in guidance in the last 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL congrats Kev and Bob? I think Will is right in waiting for the globals to come around to see if this is the trend. The nrn stream has flexed in guidance in the last 12 hrs. Looks like BL issues are still there in southern regions...but it does look like it would flip to wet snow even in the CP of MA and interior SE MA by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL congrats Kev and Bob? I think Will is right in waiting for the globals to come around to see if this is the trend. The nrn stream has flexed in guidance in the last 12 hrs. This sort of reminds me of 12/13/07 (a mini version). I remember it was north, then came way south as the NYC folks celebrated, then last minute came back north with the sleet line to PVD. Different animal, but hopefully same trends. Also, morning meteorologists not biting....always frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like BL issues are still there in southern regions...but it does look like it would flip to wet snow even in the CP of MA and interior SE MA by 12z. Looks like they flash to a 34F light snow or something near 12z. Good run for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I know noone has agreed with me but i don't think this has any room to come north and never did ..the south trend seems real based on the cold push from the north. That being said I'd bet we see a levelling off soon as that SE ridge won't let this come too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks like they flash to a 34F light snow or something near 12z. Good run for Kevin. We will see what the other guidance thinks but I think Steve to Bob are probably in a good zone and probably Kevin too....if this NAM trend continues even Phil and I could be in the green zone. The NAM wasn't sniffing out anything re the gradient, it was the NAM being the NAM outside of 42 hours...useless. But the NAM shift SE is undeniable, here are the last three runs and this scares me Scott because I argued the point last night with John that the NAM was too far west to start/amped, and it appears it was. It's now correcting towards the faster guidance and we run a really fine line in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I know noone has agreed with me but i don't think this has any room to come north and never did ..the south trend seems real based on the cold push from the north. That being said I'd bet we see a levelling off soon as that SE ridge won't let this come too far south. Well we'll see what the other guidance does. if that comes south, then we may have a trend..but will level off too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 We will see what the other guidance thinks but I think Steve to Bob are probably in a good zone and probably Kevin too....if this NAM trend continues even Phil and I could be in the green zone. But the NAM shift SE is undeniable, here are the last three runs and this scares me Scott because I argued the point last night with John that the NAM was too far west to start/amped, and it appears it was. It's now correcting towards the faster guidance and we run a really fine line in that regard. Good animation. You can see how the S/W in the southwest has actually shifted west a bit. This probably allows for the nrn stream to shift further se as the 500 heights are more compressible. I'm still going to wait for the other guidance to see if it is real. My gut says the GFS at least may tick se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well we'll see what the other guidance does. if that comes south, then we may have a trend..but will level off too. I think jackpot area will end up being ORH with 4-5 inches..but I feel pretty good about a 2-3 inch snowfall IMBY and even snows to the coast to stick for you and Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 I know noone has agreed with me but i don't think this has any room to come north and never did ..the south trend seems real based on the cold push from the north. That being said I'd bet we see a levelling off soon as that SE ridge won't let this come too far south. There's still concern for a north jump...the vortmax travels across SNE which traditionally means the best forcing is north of where the NAM is trying to put it. Its getting sheared out, so there are multiple components acting on this system....but just because there is a cold push from the north, doesn't mean it cannot tick north and counter that cold push...how do you think all the past SWFEs pushed north as we got into the final couple days even with a high to our north? Its a balancing act and opposing forces...the hard part is guess which one ends up winning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think jackpot area will end up being ORH with 4-5 inches..but I feel pretty good about a 2-3 inch snowfall IMBY and even snows to the coast to stick for you and Phil I like how it keeps the mood snows going into the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 i think the NAM is actually snow right to the coast...at least based on those crude twisterdata soundings. it's a very cold run. only the immediate surface that's "mild" and it's like 2C. not sure i believe it, but verbatim, i think it goes frozen everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 My sister's house in Burrilville, RI looks to be a good spot. Whiffage up near me on north? Cold is there, but qpf issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 There's still concern for a north jump...the vortmax travels across SNE which traditionally means the best forcing is north of where the NAM is trying to put it. Its getting sheared out, so there are multiple components acting on this system....but just because there is a cold push from the north, doesn't mean it cannot tick north and counter that cold push...how do you think all the past SWFEs pushed north as we got into the final couple days even with a high to our north? Its a balancing act and opposing forces...the hard part is guess which one ends up winning out. Good summary. It's actually not as bad as QPF makes it out to be. Nice weenie band near the Pike I think based on 500 track and deformation area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM really likes E MA for some inverted trough snow overnight 23rd into 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I remember like Saturday when the Euro was the only model to have this snow event..and Ryan said he was tossing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM really likes E MA for some inverted trough snow overnight 23rd into 24th. WCVB Ch 5's internal model was showing some of that this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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