CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 09z SREFs just came in a bit compressed and colder...that would be some good news for those living on the edge like Kevin and maybe Steve. They look a hair slower too, but yeah they are south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 09z SREFs just came in a bit compressed and colder...that would be some good news for those living on the edge like Kevin and maybe Steve. More good news. Can you post them ? i can't access at work. This is like the good ole days when the cold outdueled the warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 More good news. Can you post them ? i can't access at work. This is like the good ole days when the cold outdueled the warm Only the ugly NCEP maps are out...the snow prob maps should be out in about 20-25 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Surprised they ticked south since they were sort of playing catch up. It could be because the whole gradient is being compressed a bit, but it may be a burp too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I still think we'll have to watch the inverted trough potential...there's actually a few possibilities...the NAM is showing very good RH even up through 700mb hanging back all day on the 23rd and overnight into the 24th before drying a bit...there could be some lingering steady light snow in eastern areas from that...before a break and then maybe more enhancement as that s/w comes in from the west later on Xmas eve. The other scenario is the s/w from the west clears out the earlier stuff sooner and then tries to re-enhance stuff on Xmas eve...but the placement of that feature would mean a lot in terms of where any stead stuff sets up. The 850s behind the initial stuff on the 23rd are like -8C to -10C so i think snow growth could occur even in the relative low levels. Do u mean eastern sne cne or nne? Flashback to Dec 30 08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 They look a hair slower too, but yeah they are south a bit. We'll have to see if there are some weird members in there too...sometimes you'll get a group of models in there like the ARW or something that are all different from the rest which ends up skewing the mean. I've seen it before and got tricked by the mean when I should have looked at the individual runs to make sure there wasn't some specific set of ensembles that were radically different. But I can def see a slightly colder/south trend coming back into play after that pretty sizable bump north we had yesterday and last night...there is only so much room for this to go...that high will begin to fight back at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well the whole thermal gradient will be compressing south, so I suppose there is a small chance of that happening, but I really wouldn't worry about that...jmho. 09z SREFs just came in a bit compressed and colder...that would be some good news for those living on the edge like Kevin and maybe Steve. SREFs may have ticked south a bit. Hmmmmm.......perhaps my concerns are not so unfounded after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Do u mean eastern sne cne or nne? Flashback to Dec 30 08 You guys have a good shot at getting periodic light snows as well, especially if an inv trough hangs back to the nw and that s/w on the 24th trends stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hmmmmm.......perhaps my concerns are not so unfounded after all. This is just getting out of hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hmmmmm.......perhaps my concerns are not so unfounded after all. I wouldn't worry as long as you don't expect to jackpot. You'll do fine I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This thread is a bit more pleasing to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 We'll have to see if there are some weird members in there too...sometimes you'll get a group of models in there like the ARW or something that are all different from the rest which ends up skewing the mean. I've seen it before and got tricked by the mean when I should have looked at the individual runs to make sure there wasn't some specific set of ensembles that were radically different. But I can def see a slightly colder/south trend coming back into play after that pretty sizable bump north we had yesterday and last night...there is only so much room for this to go...that high will begin to fight back at some point. All of the sudden the nrn stream is flexing so maybe that will be the case. I'm just sort of meh about this, but looks good for you and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 The SREFs def have the inverted trough signal on the 24th...it drops a tenth or more of qpf from the immediate eastern shore of MA down to Cape Cod on the 24th where it looks like they might get the most on the mean. Obviously that is toward the end of their run, but its interesting to see it becoming more defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Is the inverted trough only for Eastern Mass..or is it the kind of deal where all of SNE will have on and off light snows on Saturday? Sort of like a continuous fine light snow that might accumulate an inch thruout the entire day is what i am envisioning?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This is looking like a nice treat for some. I'm really digging the thermal gradient that is going to be present with this system. This thing can't come too much further N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The SREFs def have the inverted trough signal on the 24th...it drops a tenth or more of qpf from the immediate eastern shore of MA down to Cape Cod on the 24th where it looks like they might get the most on the mean. Obviously that is toward the end of their run, but its interesting to see it becoming more defined. NRN stream FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Is the inverted trough only for Eastern Mass..or is it the kind of deal where all of SNE will have on and off light snows on Saturday? Sort of like a continuous fine light snow that might accumulate an inch thruout the entire day is what i am envisioning?? There also appears to be light on shore flow at like 950mb which would bring periodic snows..esp if a s/w comes down to enhance it. But if we do get an inv trough..it may focus the moisture conv closer to wherever that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Is the inverted trough only for Eastern Mass..or is it the kind of deal where all of SNE will have on and off light snows on Saturday? Sort of like a continuous fine light snow that might accumulate an inch thruout the entire day is what i am envisioning?? Eastern areas have the best shot for something that accumulates...the interior will prob have off and on flurries...maybe some steadier snow showers at times...esp further east in the interior...but its def favoring closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 How much is that s/w diving out of Hudson's Bay helping? To me it appears as though that is what is enhancing that inverted trough look once the 1st system passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 How much is that s/w diving out of Hudson's Bay helping? To me it appears as though that is what is enhancing that inverted trough look once the 1st system passes. Yeah that is what enhances it...there's already one kind of hanging back anyway, but when that s/w comes along it energizes it a bit and could create some more focused convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Even if the inv trough doesn't set up, there might be one of those ne-n wind convergence type setups that usually happens, so someone nearby BOS or maybe just se of the city could get into that I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Snow probs definitely reflect the southward shift on 09z... I was looking at the individual members and it appears the ETA members are the ones skimping back on precip to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Even if the inv trough doesn't set up, there might be one of those ne-n wind convergence type setups that usually happens, so someone nearby BOS or maybe just se of the city could get into that I suppose. Honestly should this be on a December 24th storm threat thread to keep in the spirit of the new rules? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Honestly should this be on a December 24th storm threat thread to keep in the spirit of the new rules? Its basically a continuation of this event...its similar to 12/20/08 in respect to 12/19/08....We are trying to use common sense and keep larger threats apart from eachother so that people don't get confused...we did it all the time in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Snow probs definitely reflect the southward shift on 09z... I was looking at the individual members and it appears the ETA members are the ones skimping back on precip to the north. It's got quite the gradient on the mean, which is owing to that. It looks a little funny on the mean, but I don't doubt there will be some sort of a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Not surprising the SREFs came somewhat south. The NAM will likely prove to have been too robust/nw. GFS and Euro compromise maybe and we'll see the NAM itself trend that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Its basically a continuation of this event...its similar to 12/20/08 in respect to 12/19/08....We are trying to use common sense and keep larger threats apart from eachother so that people don't get confused...we did it all the time in the past. If it appears they'll mainly effect two distinct areas it may make more sense to break it up after the 12z because it could be that two distinct areas want to talk about different things once we lock Kev's blizzard for Friday in his area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 They have a decent inv trough signal over ne mass too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Compared to the 0z noticeable/flatter changes at 24 hours in the deep south. Not as arnold'ed or as far west so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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