ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I decided to create a separate thread for the 12/23 potential as we are close enough now that it looks like someone will get something out of that...whether its CNE or SNE still remains to be seen...or maybe both. The Christmas potential can stay in the other thread. This will be discussion on the 12/23 threat. Right now the BL is going to be marginal so the higher terrain in the interior will be favored...esp N of the MA/CT border as the colder air is a bit deeper the further north you go. Most likely it will be a 1-3" event but I suppose there is a small threat at a 4" jackpot somewhere....the GFS, NAM, and Euro are all in fairly good agreement on these ideas. We will still have to watch for some inverted trough lighter snows on Christmas Eve lingering as another shortwave moves over the region from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Anyone want to hazard a start/end time for this? I thought it looked pretty drawn out on the nutty GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 2am start, over by 8am by most models...I'll be sleeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 2am start, over by 8am by most models...I'll be sleeping. I'll be driving to work My students will be so much smarter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 2am start, over by 8am by most models...I'll be sleeping. Nah, the rain will wake you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Why are you not including all high terrain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Skiing Friday up north, so hoping, hoping, hoping the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Why are you not including all high terrain? It might be everyone in the high terrain, but there's a chance that the southern hills in RI/NE CT struggle a bit...especially early in the event as the BL warmth will be strongest down there initially. It might not be a big deal either, but we won't know until we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Wow, I didn't realize how much colder the GFS was compared to the NAM. The NAM doesn't even have snow in SNE on the twisterdata snow maps with the exception of areas around ORH and surface temps. look to be close to 40F south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It might be everyone in the high terrain, but there's a chance that the southern hills in RI/NE CT struggle a bit...especially early in the event as the BL warmth will be strongest down there initially. It might not be a big deal either, but we won't know until we get closer. Ok that makes me feel better lol.. If the NAM is right in thermal profile I think all the hills see a couple inches and hopefully most of SNE can grab some with the heavier vv's. Euro was very close here and if you factor in it's warm 2m temps bias would prob be a 32 wet snow..The GFS quite honestly I always factor out whether it's cold or warm No matter what happens we've got something to track and it sure as hell is nice to have a couple shots at a White Xmas since when we talked at the GTG we were thinking less than 20% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ok that makes me feel better lol.. If the NAM is right in thermal profile I think all the hills see a couple inches and hopefully most of SNE can grab some with the heavier vv's. Euro was very close here and if you factor in it's warm 2m temps bias would prob be a 32 wet snow..The GFS quite honestly I always factor out whether it's cold or warm No matter what happens we've got something to track and it sure as hell is nice to have a couple shots at a White Xmas since when we talked at the GTG we were thinking less than 20% chance. Well even the GFS gave you like an inch. The northern hills probably have the best shot with the deeper cold, but the BL warmth could be overplayed a bit...not sure. We'll have a much better idea probably by tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS is pretty juiced up and warm for now. It might have the idea of ticking north, but maybe a little too aggressive on this run. It's pretty bad south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ok that makes me feel better lol.. If the NAM is right in thermal profile I think all the hills see a couple inches and hopefully most of SNE can grab some with the heavier vv's. Euro was very close here and if you factor in it's warm 2m temps bias would prob be a 32 wet snow..The GFS quite honestly I always factor out whether it's cold or warm No matter what happens we've got something to track and it sure as hell is nice to have a couple shots at a White Xmas since when we talked at the GTG we were thinking less than 20% chance. LOL, you are such a Nervous Nelly. You'll probably see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS is pretty juiced up and warm for now. It might have the idea of ticking north, but maybe a little too aggressive on this run. It's pretty bad south of the Pike. Hmm, twisterdata must be flat out wrong then: NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I guess the concern I have in general..and not just imby..is if this does tick a little north. If that were to occur, we probably would shot the precip down before it gets cold enough for anything meaningful. I can't totally toss the GFS solution right now, but hopefully it's a little too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hmm, twisterdata must be flat out wrong then: NAM GFS ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 ?? Well these would indicate the NAM is warmer than the GFS but you were saying the exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 this is pretty funny. the boundary layer is torched...then just crashes cold...and truly isothermal...18z nam hya: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 The GFS starts off a bit like a torch....but by 12z it cools off a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The GFS starts off a bit like a torch....but by 12z it cools off a lot. Clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well these would indicate the NAM is warmer than the GFS but you were saying the exact opposite. The NAM dynamically cools strongly in E MA during the height of the event. The GFS cools off toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The NAM dynamically cools strongly in E MA during the height of the event. The GFS cools off toward the end. yeah i thought maybe there was a dry layer...but there isn't...i guess it just rips enough VVs and maybe some downward drag to cool it off? it's kinda strange how much it drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The NAM dynamically cools strongly in E MA during the height of the event. The GFS cools off toward the end. Yeah I see a little bubble of colder air there between ORH and BOS. Is that what you mean? At hr 66? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The GFS starts off a bit like a torch....but by 12z it cools off a lot. If someone lived at, let's say 1400' near the border of Hampshire/Berkshire county, what do you think the likely outcome will be? Just hypothetically speaking of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If someone lived at, let's say 1400' near the border of Hampshire/Berkshire county, what do you think the likely outcome will be? Just hypothetically speaking of course. killed by jealous snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well these would indicate the NAM is warmer than the GFS but you were saying the exact opposite. Like Phil and Brian said, the NAM is a product of dynamic cooling. But the GFS imo kind of stinks for people like Kevin. Here is why. This will be a system I think where closer to the actual low center, there will be a more compact, but intense area of lift, whereas further away..it may not be as intense, but a more broader area of light to moderate values of lift I think. Sorry for the run on sentence BTW. Anyways, here is why you don't want the GFS. I know it can run warmer this time of year and I agree it can torch 850 a lot more than it should. However notice in this graphic, SNE has good lift overall, but it's probably just switching over to snow in nrn CT..maybe down to Kev. I'm also trying to take into account the warm bias. But look at 12z, the precip is just about gone with the mid level deformation and associated weak return way up in NNE. SO just when he is ready to rock, the precip is gone. The euro is further south with all this, and is much better for areas near and south of the Pike. However, I'm just showing why you don't want this much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ride the Euro like a wild pony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 killed by jealous snow lovers I'm reporting this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This could be a classic case of CNE getting more than some think...despite what the QPF output is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 This could be a classic case of CNE getting more than some think...despite what the QPF output is. That happens a lot in SWFE type events...I remember in 12/19/08 they did much better than anyone forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.