JoMo Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Can you tell I've given up on winter already? You should have chased the snowstorm. As for winter...maybe February.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Is this guy a credible met? Like does anyone in the met world respect him? or is he just a product of Internet fan boys? I only know of him threw climate stuff which he tanked really really bad. I know he worked ar accu weather. Why did he quit or get fired. What is the "real" story on him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 In many respects, the past few winters have resembled the late 40s/early 50s, at least up here. 2009-2010 was a near snowless winter in Toronto, trumped only by 1952-53. I'l agree with that statement here in northern Michigan too. The past 3 winters with significantly below normal snowfall up here basically line up perfectly with the mid 50s. Also, interestingly this is when the last negative PDO flip occurred, and just noticed that the latest November PDO numbers are the lowest since 1957. Kind of interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 More accurately, he's cancelled January 1-20 for the east. Expect the SSW event to impact the east in the last 1/3 of the month. "That being said, it will produce quite the fight and if we can get wavelengths to shorten the end of January, the same kind of pattern that is coming up now, except with major arctic air on the map, could result." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Hmmm...33 replies. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 This. Will be out for 10 days in mid-May. nice, looks like we're going mid-to-late May maybe into early June. Which can only mean Brett will be snagging gorgeous tornadoes in early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 my own thoughts are February will be the month to watch this year...maybe early March as well...Analogs to watch are 1949-50, 1971-72 and 1974-75... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 March will ROCK Sun Angle issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 LC, DT and JB all went cold/snowy for December...these are the mets that tend to get the most attention for some reason, so when the month busted horribly warm and snowless for most, thus the "surprise" at it being warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 my own thoughts are February will be the month to watch this year...maybe early March as well...Analogs to watch are 1949-50, 1971-72 and 1974-75... I agree with the two bolded analogs. December 1971 saw a lot more cold and snow up in Ontario than eitehr 1949 or 1974. December 1974 was a TORCH up in Toronto and Ottawa, much like this year, with more snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 LC, DT and JB all went cold/snowy for December...these are the mets that tend to get the most attention for some reason, so when the month busted horribly warm and snowless for most, thus the "surprise" at it being warm i feel like 90% of winter forecasts had a cold and blocky december (ala last yr). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Henry M still on board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 i feel like 90% of winter forecasts had a cold and blocky december (ala last yr). 90% might be a bit much, but certainly a strong majority of forecasters (including myself) did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 i feel like 90% of winter forecasts had a cold and blocky december (ala last yr). yes..most people will call for a cold Dec in La Nina no matter what which is what happened this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 yes..most people will call for a cold Dec in La Nina no matter what which is what happened this year I thought that until mid November when the AO wetn so positive, then its really hard to switch very quickly. I'm in the Don Sutherland camp about January though I may be a little less bearish about dc snow. Still the AO probalby going to average being positive for the month. Add a La nina and that's not a great combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I thought that until mid November when the AO wetn so positive, then its really hard to switch very quickly. I'm in the Don Sutherland camp about January though I may be a little less bearish about dc snow. Still the AO probalby going to average being positive for the month. Add a La nina and that's not a great combo. Yep, that was when I got off the bus, too. When the quick, weak MJO P7-1 didn't even budge the anti-blocking regime, I hopped off quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 yes..most people will call for a cold Dec in La Nina no matter what which is what happened this year Why? There are too many warm Decembers in the East to make such a call for a La Niña without considering alternative scenarios. December 1949, 1956, 1971, 1974, 1998, 1999, and most recently, 2007 had large areas of warmth in the East. Clearly, one's call can be wrong. That's the risk inherent in any forecast. I have more than enough busts, myself, to remember that risk. But the data argues that one cannot and should not automatically assume that a La Niña December will be cold in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 More accurately, he's cancelled January 1-20 for the east. Expect the SSW event to impact the east in the last 1/3 of the month. "That being said, it will produce quite the fight and if we can get wavelengths to shorten the end of January, the same kind of pattern that is coming up now, except with major arctic air on the map, could result." What SSW event? There has been no SSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The fact is that JBs winter forecast has been an unmitigated disaster thus far. He called for a front loaded winter, with winter vanishing come January and February. This can't be good news for Weatherbell, jis new employer. Not a great first winter for them. Not that they control the weather, but still. If anything, this December has been worse than 2001, when we at least some some accumulating snow in Toronto and Ottawa had a white Christmas. Some people thought I was going over the top when I suggested a month or two ago that this could be a 1931-32 redux, but look what's happening. Virtually no arctic air anywhere our side of the pole outside of Alaska. We have seen a torch october, November and now December. Even 2006 saw a below normal October. I said last month that you don't get a cold snowy winter after a torch November up in Ontario and that theory seems to be panning out. Right now I think Roger Smith deserves congratulations. We can hope he's right and that the ice man comes in February. As for me, my current analogs are 1877-78, 1880-81, 1918-1919, 1931-32, 1949-50, 1952-53 and 1974-75 with a heaby emphasis on 1949-50 and 1952-53 given weseem to be in that kind of climate cycle at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The fact is that JBs winter forecast has been an unmitigated disaster thus far. He called for a front loaded winter, with winter vanishing come January and February. This can't be good news for Weatherbell, jis new employer. Not a great first winter for them. Not that they control the weather, but still. If anything, this December has been worse than 2001, when we at least some some accumulating snow in Toronto and Ottawa had a white Christmas. Some people thought I was going over the top when I suggested a month or two ago that this could be a 1931-32 redux, but look what's happening. Virtually no arctic air anywhere our side of the pole outside of Alaska. We have seen a torch october, November and now December. Even 2006 saw a below normal October. I said last month that you don't get a cold snowy winter after a torch November up in Ontario and that theory seems to be panning out. Right now I think Roger Smith deserves congratulations. We can hope he's right and that the ice man comes in February. As for me, my current analogs are 1877-78, 1880-81, 1918-1919, 1931-32, 1949-50, 1952-53 and 1974-75 with a heaby emphasis on 1949-50 and 1952-53 given weseem to be in that kind of climate cycle at this time. 1949-50 and 1974-75 were the La Nina years...Both had decent February's and cold into April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 1949-50 and 1974-75 were the La Nina years...Both had decent February's and cold into April... That's what I'm hoping for now. January looks to be a torch, but if we could get a blockbuster February, all would be forgiven. If we could just get a February like 1950 or 1934 even followed by a March like 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The fact is that JBs winter forecast has been an unmitigated disaster thus far. He called for a front loaded winter, with winter vanishing come January and February. This can't be good news for Weatherbell, jis new employer. Not a great first winter for them. Not that they control the weather, but still. If anything, this December has been worse than 2001, when we at least some some accumulating snow in Toronto and Ottawa had a white Christmas. Some people thought I was going over the top when I suggested a month or two ago that this could be a 1931-32 redux, but look what's happening. Virtually no arctic air anywhere our side of the pole outside of Alaska. We have seen a torch october, November and now December. Even 2006 saw a below normal October. I said last month that you don't get a cold snowy winter after a torch November up in Ontario and that theory seems to be panning out. Right now I think Roger Smith deserves congratulations. We can hope he's right and that the ice man comes in February. As for me, my current analogs are 1877-78, 1880-81, 1918-1919, 1931-32, 1949-50, 1952-53 and 1974-75 with a heaby emphasis on 1949-50 and 1952-53 given weseem to be in that kind of climate cycle at this time. I'd taked 1880-81. A very cold and snowy winter in the OV. Maybe you mean 1881-82, which was god awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'd taked 1880-81. A very cold and snowy winter in the OV. Maybe you mean 1881-82, which was god awful. That's what I meant. My mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arizonasooner Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 What is with all this whining about not having a cold winter? In PHX, we were slightly below average temp-wise in November and also well below average in December so far. Plus we have actually had some precip! I do anticipate warming after Christmas for quite awhile though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Winter is for snow, not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arizonasooner Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hey we can see the snow on the mountains, which is better than nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 JB is about to crash and burn on his Christmas storm prediction...the busts have no end in sight for him this year to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
louwxman Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LC, DT and JB all went cold/snowy for December...these are the mets that tend to get the most attention for some reason, so when the month busted horribly warm and snowless for most, thus the "surprise" at it being warm That is why they get the most attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 JB is about to crash and burn on his Christmas storm prediction...the busts have no end in sight for him this year to date People continually want to start pattern changes 2 weeks out and have storms bringing snow 5-7 days out when until this AO/NAO deal changes we won't see diddly squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 JB is about to crash and burn on his Christmas storm prediction...the busts have no end in sight for him this year to date he has been having a catastrophic first winter with weatherbell. At this rate, he'll be losing subscribers like mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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